MaltaToday Survey | Muscat’s trust rating at all-time high as Delia flounders [FULL DATA]

The Labour Party has strengthened its electoral lead despite a hostile political climate in the aftermath of Daphne Caruana Galizia’s murder, a MaltaToday survey has found.

The party in government has seen its share of the vote increase by 3.4 percentage points to 49.8% when compared to the results of the October MaltaToday survey, which was done before the assassination.

Since then, several protests have been held, calling for the removal of the Police Commissioner and the Attorney General, that culminated last week in the European Parliament’s approval of a resolution that raised concern on various aspects of the rule of law in Malta.

However, none of this seems to have impacted the PL negatively, which according to projections derived from the survey would win by a margin of more than 71,000 votes if an election were held now. The survey was conducted between the 13 and 16 November.

On the flipside, the Nationalist Party saw its vote share drop by 1.2 percentage points when compared to the October result and now stands at 20.7%.

The PN’s failure to capitalise on the events of the past month contrasted with the gains made by Alternattiva Demokratika that shot up to 3.1%, an increase of 2.9 points over October. However, this result falls within the margin of error. The Democratic Party, which has two MPs, only faired marginally better than its October performance, obtaining 0.6%, an increase of 0.4 points.

While the share of those who said they would not vote decreased by one point to 15.7%, there was a drop of 6.4 percentage points in the undecided, which now stand at 6.5%. Those who chose not to answer increased from 1.7% in October to 3.6% in November.

A breakdown of voting intentions, based on how people voted in the June 2017 general election reveals that 93.2% of PL voters would confirm their choice again if an election is held now.

The survey also shows that 4.7% of PL voters last June are having second thoughts.

On the other hand, 54.1% of June 2017 PN voters would retain their preference at the ballot boxes, while 35.8% are either unsure of what to do or opting not to vote if an election is held now. The PN would also see 1.6% of its voters now choosing the PL.

Significantly, 3.1% of PN voters in the last election would now vote for AD while 1.3% would vote PD.

Moreover, 19.2% of those who stated that they did not vote for either party back in June 2017 indicated they would cast their preference for the PL this time around.

The survey indicates that the significant increase in the margin between the two parties since the June election would largely be due to a low turnout among PN voters. This also reflects the internal discord that has characterised the PN since Adrian Delia’s election as party leader.

Muscat weathers storm

Joseph Muscat has not only weathered accusations that his government undermined the rule of law but emerged even stronger

over the past month, a MaltaToday survey found. The Prime Minister’s trust rating increased

by 2.8 percentage points since October and now stands at 53.7%. This is Muscat’s highest trust rating since becoming Prime Minister in 2013.

It appears from the result that people may have judged the Prime Minister positively over his handling of the Daphne Caruana Galizia murder fallout that overshadowed the Budget, which was characterised by no tax increases.

But Muscat’s good performance has its flipside in Nationalist Party

leader Adrian Delia’s trust rating. Delia, who became PN leader last September, has floundered over the past month with his trust rating dropping by 6.9 percentage points. The Opposition leader now enjoys a trust rating of 15.2%. The survey shows that Delia’s trust rating is significantly hampered by his inability to convince PN supporters. Only 39% of those who voted PN in the June general election trust Delia. An overall majority of PN voters (54.5%) said they trust neither Delia nor Muscat.

This contrasts significantly with the result obtained by Muscat, who enjoys the trust of 97.8% of PL voters in the last election.

The survey registered an increase of more than 10 points in those who do not trust Muscat or Delia. These now stand at 27.5%. However, the undecided dropped to 3.1% from 10% in October.

A breakdown by age reveals that Muscat is trusted more than Delia across all age groups. The level of no confidence in both leaders is most prevalent in the youngest generation.

The level of distrust recedes with age 40.6% of 18 to 35 year-olds trust neither Muscat nor Delia, dropping to 16.8% in the 65+ segment.

Muscat’s highest result is among those aged between 36 and 50, where he manages a trust rating of 68.9%. His lowest at 42.9% is registered among those aged 65 and over.

Delia’s highest trust rating is among 93.2% those aged 65 and over, where he commands the trust of 35.3%. However, he registers a dismal 3.1% trust rating among those aged between 36 and 50.

In the younger generation (18-35), Muscat enjoys a trust rating of 46.8% while Delia only manages 9.6%.

Methodology

The survey wass carried out between 13 and 16 November. The total number of respondents was 497 giving a margin of error of +/-5% for a confidence level of 95%. Stratified random sampling was used to gen

erate the sample. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, geographical region and response according to the June 2017 election. The regions are based on the classification used by the National Statistics Office.

Perception survey

Respondents were read five statements in sequence and asked to rate between 1 and 10 their level of agreement with the statement. Scores thereon were categorised as mostly disagree (1-3), neither agree or disagree (4-7) and mostly agree (8-10).