Malta population in 2070 to grow to 811,000

Healthier life years after retirement, older workers, and unprecedented population increase: this is the picture of Malta over the next half-century. 

Population projections from the finance ministry’s annual report on ageing submitted to the European Commission place the island’s population in 2070 at just under 811,000 – a 53% increase over present figures of 527,000. 

Not only will Malta host even more people in what is already one of the densest places on earth – 1,666 people per square kilometre – but there will also be fewer young people being born as a healthier population grows older. 

Indeed, the share of very young people aged up to 14 will decrease from its current 13.4% share, to 11.1% in 2070, while those aged over 65 will increase from 19.3% to a whopping 33.6%. 

Medical advancements will also guarantee greater life expectancy for men, rising by over six years to reach 87 in 2070, and for women to reach close to 91. 

And net migration, the difference between incoming and outgoing migration, will fall from 11,456 in 2022 to just under 4,000 in 2070. 

With one person in three aged over 65 towards the end of the next century, this demographic change means a greater share of the working population aged 20-64 will be bearing the financial ‘burden’ of the elderly: from 63.2% currently financing the pension pot and healthcare cost, that ratio will fall to 51.5% in 2070. 

Dependency ratios – those who are likely to be “dependent” on the support of others, youths and pensioners, for their daily living – better illustrate the kind of ageing society Malta will be living in, in 2070. 

The old-age-dependency ratio – those aged over 65 relative to those aged 20-64 – will increase from 30.5% to 65.4% in 2070; while that for those aged over 75, relative to the 20-74 age bracket, will also grow from 11.5% to 30%. 

In this scenario however, there will be more people gainfully employed in the labour market. For example, there will be far more workers aged 55-64, increasing from 55.3% to 71.8% in 2070. 

Men’s average exit age from work, currently at just under 63, will edge up to 63.6 years in 2070, and women from 63.1 to 63.6, an increase that reflects the rise of the statutory retirement age by 2027, lengthening the contributory period by 2034, and the incentives to defer retirement. This should result in more people with full contribution postponing retirement by one to four years. 

With an ageing population comes a higher spend to finance the national pension pot, currently costing 6.2% of Malta’s GDP. By 2070, it will be 10.5% of GDP while revenue from contributions would have fallen from 7.6% to 7.2% of GDP. By increasing retirement age and the contribution period for full pension eligibility, the projected increase in pension expenditure is lowered.