Why the polls got it wrong

Eight out of nine opinion surveys held by MaltaToday, but also one by Xarabank and one by Misco International, since 2013 have shown a majority of people against spring hunting.

But the result now shows the Yes enjoying a slim lead.

The Xarabank survey had even showed a wider No lead of nine (9) points while the Misco survey commissioned by Din l-Art Helwa showed 51% opposed to spring hunting and only 30% in favour.

The latest three MaltaToday surveys had shown a No lead of six (6) points while 17%, a majority of which were Labour voters, were undecided.

Only one MaltaToday survey held in January had shown the Yes leading by 1 point.

The discrepancy cannot be attributed to the margin of error, as the No majority in the latest survey was just beyond the +/- 3 point margin of error.

The result can be attributed to two factors: a much higher turnout in districts supporting the hunting community, and a shift of the undecided voters towards the Yes camp in the final days.

An analysis by district of the latest survey had shown the Yes leading in fifth, sixth and seventh districts (where there was a higher turnout) and no majority in the eight, ninth, tenth, tenth and twelfth district (where there was a lower turnout). 

The latest MaltaToday survey showed the No was leading in the western fifth, sixth and seventh districts by 17 points and 16 points in Gozo. In these districts turnout surpassed the 80% mark while in other districts turnout where the no was leading was 70%.

MaltaToday’s latest survey also showed the lowest number of non-voters (4%) in the fifth and seventh districts and in Gozo (1%).   

On the other hand 7% of voters in the no districts replied that they were not voting.

The MaltaToday survey also a very high rate of undecided voters in Gozo, which was the highest in Malta. It may well have been that these voters ended up voting yes.

The eleventh district where the no was leading and the turnout surpassed the 80% mark was the only exception to the rule.