Gold slides to a two-year low
Vincent Pellizzari, Junior Trader on RTFX Ltd.’s Trading Floor, outlines events shaping the moves behind major currencies throughout last week.
EUR
EUR/USD was quite difficult to trade last week, indeed the pair did not move much oscillating in a 1% range between 1.3040/1.3140 all week.
Mixed macro-economic data did not help much either as the pair struggled to find a clear direction. Better than expected industrial production figures were released, while the German wholesale prices came out weaker than expected.
On Friday, a report showing slowing US retail sales initially led to a risk off move in the euro but the currency pair quickly recovered and euro buyers saw no major reaction from US markets and European bond yields turned lower.
This week, there is no significant euro zone data to watch. The most important release is the German ZEW survey.
USD
There isn't much to say on the US dollar's activity last week except that its decline mostly benefitted the DOW Jones which recorded a new all-time high on Thursday.
This week some major events coming from the US will most likely drive markets. Tuesday, CPI figures are due to be released as well as housing starts and building permits.
GBP
Last week the British Pound edged higher against the US dollar and remained almost unchanged against the euro. GBP/USD rose to a weekly high of 1.5411 before pulling back on end of the week profit taking.
This week, UK data will be watched closely. Key economic calendar events are to be released on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. They include consumer and producer prices, retail sales, employment data and the minutes from the most recent Bank of England MPC meeting. The UK's economic recovery will be a long and tough process.
JPY
In Asia, USD/JPY reached 99.948 pushed by the stimulus measures taken by the BoJ. The measures, which will amount to Y270 trillion, are seen as really aggressive yet assimilated as a bet by Takeshi Fujimaki, a former economic advisor to Georges Soros. According to him, the impact could be catastrophic in case the economy should suffer hyperinflation.
Last but not least, on Friday, the US Treasury Department said it would watch Japan closely to ensure its policies were not intended to devaluate their currency. In a semi-annual report on currency practices on major trading partners, the Treasury Department said it would push Japan to stick to commitments it made to the G7 and G20 to let the market determine exchange rates. USD/JPY edged away from a four-week peak and fell to 97.55 overnight.
AUD
AUD rallied the whole week to reach a high of 1.0582 before also pulling back on end of week profit taking. In addition, weaker than expected employment figures released on Thursday slowed down the up move as well.
On a longer time horizon, the Aussie looks like a new safe haven for investors looking for stability.
However, the pair could suffer from the weakening of the Chinese economy, which showed signed of difficulties this morning with the release of weaker than expected GDP figures and industrial production.
Tomorrow, the Reserve Bank of Australia minutes release will be watched closely by forex traders.
NZD
Just like the Aussie, the NZD is currently well appreciated by traders in search of diversification. Last week's rally came to halt as well on Monday because of concerns over the Chinese economic outlook.
NZD/USD trades now around 0.8482 levels down 194 pips from last week's high of 0.8676.
On Wednesday, New Zealand CPI figures will be published and will determine whether the NZD/USD can resume its uptrend or not.
Gold
Major action on Gold occurred at the end of last week. Indeed, weaker than expected retail sales data from the US started the down move on the shiny metal. The sell-off accelerated in a move which seemed to be initiated by panic following the breakdown of a major support around 1526$/ounce. Gold ended the week below 1500$/ounce.
At the start of the week, gold continued tumbling upon concerns regarding the eventual sale of Gold surplus reserve from Cyprus' central bank. However, this sale that would amount to 10 Tonnes of Gold would be easily absorbed by the market.
Real concerns would come in play in case other euro zone countries would pursue the same action, selling part of their gold reserve to shore up their finances. Gold plummeted to a daily low of 1357.38$/ounce by the time of writing and its fall looked relentless.