Market reacts with dollar selling to the end of the US government shutdown

EUR:

The euro traded above 1.37 against the greenback towards the end of last week - this was the highest level in eight months. The 1% rally against the dollar disguised the fact that the single currency recorded substantial losses against the British pound and the Swiss franc as problems in the euro zone continue.
From the eurozone's largest economy, Angela Merkel wasn't able until now to form a coalition which is keeping the single currency's performance a bit in check against its peers. The 22 September vote is almost four weeks behind us - yet the ruling CDU didn't manage to find a coalition partner so far.

USD:

The dollar initially rallied when it became known that Republicans and Democrats finally agreed on a bill which was later signed on by President Obama. The bill to lift the debt ceiling ended the US government shutdown, which had paralysed the United States for more than two weeks. These gains for the buck were short lived, and it suffered its biggest drop since the US Federal Reserve announced that they would postpone any eventual tapering of QE3 in September.
Although the greenback fell across the board, US equities enjoyed another round of buying last week which sent the S&P 500 to a new record high in a broad global move into riskier assets, as the US avoided a default with the last minute deal. Last Friday's close at 1'744.50 in the S&P 500 was the highest close of all time.

The September job market report was not published as usual on the first Friday of this month due to the government shutdown in America. The most widely watched data point of the monthly economic calendar will now be published this Tuesday. The outcome from the data could give hints about the next steps the Fed will take regards to the tapering of the latest quantitative easing program.

GBP:

The British pound was one of the strongest currencies among the majors last week after better than expected retail sales data was published for September in the United Kingdom. On top of that, the world's oldest currency was supported by comments from Bank of England Chief Economist Spencer Dale who stated that the BoE could "conceivably" hike rates for the first time as early as 2014. This differs from the forward guidance of the BoE, which suggested that the first hike will be in 2015. This spurred a rally in cable last week, with GBP/USD trading as high as 1.6230 before profit taking set in.

CAD:

The Canadian dollar has substantially underperformed other commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar or the New Zealand dollar during the last few weeks. With 1.1% annual consumer price inflation there is no reason for the Bank of Canada to raise rates at its next meeting this Wednesday. The market will however watch closely what Bank of Canada Governor Poloz has to say at the press conference following the rate decision. Apart from that, we expect retail sales data for the month of August from Canada on Tuesday.

AUD:

The Aussie dollar outperformed most of its peers last week after minutes from the last meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia suggested an increased likelihood of an upcoming rate hike Down Under. The Australian dollar extended its gains against the Greenback - AUD/USD rose to the highest level since June and now trades back above the 0.9650 level. EUR/AUD continued its recent downtrend and AUD/JPY now trades just shy of the 95 yen level.

Gold:

The price of Gold rallied more than 3% on Thursday after the House of Representatives approved the Senate bill to end the US government shutdown. This was the biggest rally since the 4% rise after the "no taper" decision by the Fed on 18 September. The 45 dollar rally sent the price of gold back above the 1'300$ level and also above the upper boundary of the down trend channel. With the seven-week bear-market trend line broken to the upside there is room for further price rises in the shiny metal in the weeks ahead. The CBOE's Gold Volatility Index dropped almost 10% last week. From a technical perspective, we could see a continuation of that up move towards the 1'350$ per ounce level and then potentially 1'420$.

Henry Philippson is a trader at RTFX Ltd