Stronger fiscal measures needed to contain age-related costs, Central Bank
Government must focus on controlling its deficit and consolidate fiscal measures, according to the Central Bank’s latest quarterly review for 2011.
In its analysis of fiscal developments, government deficit narrowed to 3.6% of GDP during 2010, from 3.7% in 2009, reflecting stronger revenue flows and expenditure restraint. However, the general government debt continued to rise, reaching 68.0% of GDP in 2010.
“Policy efforts should focus on additional fiscal consolidation measures, especially in the light of rising age-related costs, the expectation that the structural balance will fall short of the medium-term objective of a balanced budget and financial markets’ ongoing reassessment of sovereign related risks,” the Central Bank said.
“This consolidation process should be supported by structural reforms aimed at fostering growth and strengthening competitiveness.”
During the last quarter of 2010 economic activity moderated in the major advanced countries. In contrast, the main emerging market economies continued to register strong growth. Inflationary pressures rose globally, mainly reflecting further increases in food and commodity prices.
Real GDP expanded by 3.9% on an annual basis during the fourth quarter, a faster rate than in the previous quarter. Growth was primarily driven by domestic demand, particularly investment, with net exports contributing marginally.
Labour market conditions generally remained favourable during the quarter, as reflected in a drop in the number of unemployed and increasing employment numbers. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 6.5% in December.
The Review also notes that during the fourth quarter of 2010 the deficit on the current account of the balance of payments remained largely unchanged from that recorded in the same period of 2009. In contrast, over the year as a whole, the current account deficit narrowed to 4.1% of GDP, as against 7.0% in 2009.
As regards price developments, the Review observes that inflation continued to rise, reaching 4.0% in December from 2.4% in September, with the higher rate of inflation mainly reflecting rising prices of services, non-energy industrial goods and energy.
Developments in competitiveness indicators were mixed in the fourth quarter. Unit labour costs dropped, as compensation per employee fell more strongly than productivity. Conversely, the nominal and real Harmonised Competitiveness Index increased, signalling a deterioration relative to September.
The Quarterly Review is available on the website of the Central Bank of Malta at www.centralbankmalta.com