Developing countries set to account for nearly 60% of world GDP by 2030, according to new estimates

The rapid growth of emerging economies has led to a shift in economic power: forecasts based on analysis by late economist Angus Maddison suggest that the aggregate economic weight of developing and emerging economies is about to surpass that of the countries that currently make up the advanced world.

According to Perspectives on Global Development: Shifting Wealth, a new publication from the OECD Development Centre, the economic and financial crisis is accelerating this longer-term structural transformation in the global economy. Longer-term forecasts suggest that today’s developing and emerging countries are likely to account for nearly 60% of world GDP by 2030.

While the 1990s was a lost decade for much of the developing world, growth rates picked up significantly in the 2000s, with the number of developing countries beginning to converge strongly with the affluent OECD countries leaping from 12 to 65. The strong performance of China and India has had a significant impact on the rest of the developing world.

Responding to this trend, the OECD has set out to strengthen its relations with major emerging economies. It has strengthened its links with Brazil, China, India, Indonesia and South Africa and recently welcomed Chile as its 31st member and it has extended invitations to join to Estonia, Israel and Slovenia. Russia is also negotiating to become a member.