Putin single-handedly revived NATO

Turkey has lifted its veto on Sweden’s and Finland’s NATO membership. In return, the two Nordic countries are expected to “support Turkey against threats to its national security”. This includes cracking down on the P.K.K. which Turkey sees as a threat to its national security. In so doing, Vladimir Putin’s attempts to weaken NATO seem to have backfired. Their NATO membership is strategically important for the Western military alliance. Sweden can control the entrance to the Baltic Sea. Russia shares a 1,340-kilometre land border with Finland.

Military analysts expect Russia’s reaction to include more airspace intrusions, cyber-attacks, or electronic jamming against both Nordic countries. But as EU and NATO members Sweden and Finland are expected to rely on both the Union’s and the Alliance’s support. Both countries also have substantial military might. The Russian President had warned Sweden and Finland against joining NATO. His threats proved counterproductive.

A revived NATO

After being elected President of the United States in 2017, Donald Trump stated that NATO had become “obsolete”. Shortly afterwards, French President Emmanuel Macron said that NATO was ‘brain dead’. Following his invasion of Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin revived NATO, single-handedly.

When faced by the Soviet threat, Finland and Sweden considered neutrality to be in their best interests. More than three decades since the end of the Cold War, both Nordic countries, feeling threatened by Putin’s Russia, following the invasion of Ukraine, swept aside their neutrality, and sought NATO’s protection. Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation considers an attack on one NATO member as an attack on all members.

The Putin threat

Putin now faces a NATO that is stronger and bigger. Yet, the Kremlin is unlikely to reverse course. A pariah on the world stage, having painted himself into a tight corner, Vladimir Putin is highly unlikely to admit that his was a huge strategic error.

The Russian economy shall, eventually, be brought down to its knees – causing huge discontent amongst the Russian population. Yet, despots are rarely swayed by public opinion. And the nuclear threat, often cited by Putin, is of course real. We can’t simply assume it’s a bluff. He can always push the button – and that will have global catastrophic effects.

A long war is also expected to challenge Europe economically – it already does, as prices of essential items have increased exponentially across the continent with millions of consumers feeling the pinch. War fatigue shall eventually set in and unless economic pain is tackled, Western support for Ukraine will wear out.