A repeat of 2017 in 2024? No thank you Joseph

Joseph Muscat is keeping everybody guessing on a prospective candidacy for next June’s MEP elections. He does so by downplaying the eventuality, even suggesting that he was somewhat surprised by Emanuel Cuschieri’s initiative, while still actively entertaining it.

Craftily, he suggests that he can’t ignore the voice of the people clamouring for his return. This, in itself, is an invitation for supporters to make their voices heard. It creates momentum and noise. It may well be the case that Muscat is more interested in showing how much love there is for him than in actually contesting, a sort of show of strength in the face of impending judicial trouble. Muscat knows that he will be most vulnerable when alone. Like Trump and Berlusconi, Muscat knows he is much stronger when in the limelight, shielded by the love of supporters.

The question at this juncture is: Is he forcing Robert Abela’s hand by whetting the appetite of supporters, or has Abela come to the realization that he needs Joseph to win big in MEP elections? In short, is this a survival strategy for Muscat in the face of a possible arraignment on the hospital deal or one concocted by the higher echelons of the party in a bid to increase turnout among Labour voters?

The reality is that after describing Muscat as his “friend” just a few days ago, it will be incredibly difficult for Abela to turn him down as a candidate. Muscat has leverage because he knows how difficult it will be for Abela to say no.

Yet it may also be the case that Abela has come to the conclusion that galvanizing the Muscat vote outweighs any losses among principled Labourites and MOR voters who blame Muscat for the scandals that rocked the nation in the past decade.

One risk of this is that it could unite the PN against a common mortal enemy. But it could also be the case that such a candidacy will create tension between those obsessed with throwing Muscat in jail and those who want justice but don’t want their agenda dictated by Muscat’s judicial troubles.  So far Muscat has always managed to bring out the worse of the PN. Will it be any different this time round?

But while the party might need to boost the turnout, it may well address the problems which are really angering the people, some of which, like overdevelopment stemming from Muscat’s laissez-faire policies and intimacy with big business, then parading Muscat as some sort of people’s tribune.

Surely there is something alluring in a contest pitting Muscat against Metsola which could turn the elections into a presidential contest, further obscuring Abela and Grech to the side lines. But would this not be an admission of weakness on Abela’s part? And while Metsola is projected as the future for her party, Muscat represents a recent albeit successful past.

Yet apart from strategic considerations, there is also the impact on the nation’s democratic fabric. Does the country really need a relapse into the polarizing climate of 2017? Do we really have to look backward then forward? Do we really need a referendum on Muscat’s guilt or innocence in elections meant to choose our MEPs? The bitter aftertaste this will inevitably leave should be enough for Abela to tell his friend to back off.  Do we really want to spend the next months discussing Egrant, Panama and Muscat’s consultancy on exotic birds?

Joseph Muscat remains a complex larger-than-life figure, whose energy and intelligence changed the country for the better on several aspects of life, especially on civil liberties and sparing working-class people from austerity. Muscat is not loved because he was corrupt.  He is loved because he did some very good things. But one does not have to be aligned with Repubblika to realize that this legacy is problematic on several other aspects.

In this sense, it is most unfortunate that when we think of the grassroots, we always think of Muscat adulators and not of genuine socialists who felt let down by Panama gate and the privatization of public hospitals. But some of his political judgment, like that of retaining Konrad Mizzi and Keith Schembri right till the end, have stained Labour’s credentials. A whole generation grew up under the impression that Labour is corrupt. By fielding him as a candidate, Robert Abela would be giving the middle finger to those who want Labour to come to terms with Muscat’s legacy and move on by separating the wheat from the chaff. It fills the air with a sense of déjà vu.

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