2025: Trump’s threats pose challenge to European security, defence | David Attard

David Attard is a retired army colonel and former deputy commander of the Armed Forces of Malta and was asked by MaltaToday to share his expectations on the Trump presidency and its impact on Europe's defence and security in the new year.

The second term for US President Donald Trump shall present several challenges to Europe's defence and security landscape. These challenges stem from his ‘America First’ foreign policy, his declared scepticism of military and defence alliances, and his historically transactional approach to both NATO and European security.

We are in a second term of global security and defence uncertainty. Suffice it to mention the redesigned state of Ukraine, the new strategic balance being created in the Middle East following the events in Syria, and the wider implications for Iran, Israel, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the ever-present issue of Palestinian self-determination. These developments need to be balanced against the challenges the US shall face from China, as well as the role North Korea shall continue to play in Europe and the Far East region.

Uncertainty about NATO's future

Trump has previously questioned the value of NATO and whether the US should continue to support the alliance. His calls for European allies to increase their defence spending will probably escalate, and there is a risk that NATO's collective defence principle could be undermined if European partners do not agree to this.

If Trump were to revisit or escalate these views, European nations may find themselves uncertain about America’s commitment to mutual defence under Article 5 of the NATO treaty. This may further embolden Putin within the wider scheme of things, while Europe may end up needing to re-evaluate its defence strategies and armed forces.

Even if Trump remains committed to NATO, he has repeatedly criticised European NATO members for not meeting their defence spending target when compared to GDP.  He was recently reported to have said that he wanted NATO members to boost defence spending to 5% of GDP.  Trump’s request involves more than doubling NATO’s current spending target. This pressure shall lead to further transatlantic friction. While European nations may feel compelled to increase defence budgets to avoid Trump's criticism, this could strain their domestic politics and budgets, especially in European countries with non-performing economies or where there is political resistance to increase military spending by such large amounts.

Trump has at times suggested reducing the US military presence in Europe, especially in countries like Germany. If he were to follow through on this threat, it would have a profound impact on European security, forcing EU members to assume greater responsibility for their own defence. This could prompt a re-evaluation of European military capabilities, potentially pushing for more integration and cooperation within the EU’s defence framework but also leading to short- and medium-term concerns about Europe’s ability to defend itself without American support.

Isolationist policies

Trump’s ‘America First’ foreign policy could lead to further distancing from global institutions such as the UN, apart from alliances such as NATO. This could make Europe more vulnerable to external threats, particularly from Russia and China. Europe would be forced to navigate these global challenges largely on its own, feeling rather exposed within a context where Trump’s approach to Russia has, at best, been rather controversial, with critics accusing him of being too lenient toward President Vladimir Putin. If Trump were to continue or escalate this policy, Europe could face increased challenges in countering Russian aggression, especially in Eastern Europe and the Baltics. Without strong US backing for NATO’s deterrence measures or firm condemnation of Russian actions, countries in Eastern Europe might feel more vulnerable and isolated.

Trump has also shown little interest in multi-lateral missions intended to keep the peace, such as those led by the EU or the UN. European nations could thus find it harder to rely on the US for support in countering global crises, including crises in regions close to home, particularly in the Middle East and on the Ukraine border.

Challenges to transatlantic economic relations

Trump’s economic policies are very much based on protective tariff regimes. The potential impact of a trade war with the EU could further strain European economies. This could, in turn, affect the ability of European countries to further increase defence spending.

Additionally, Trump's confrontational style could also exacerbate divisions within the EU, as member states may differ on how to respond to American demands or shifting alliances.

Cybersecurity, technology and climate change

Trump's focus on bilateral agreements rather than multilateral solutions could weaken international efforts to address cybersecurity and emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence. This could leave Europe more exposed to cyberattacks, particularly from adversaries like Russia, China and North Korea. This could reduce the effectiveness of global regulations that ensure secure communication and data systems on which we have all become so dependent.

Trump's scepticism about climate change and his withdrawal from the Paris Agreement could hinder global efforts to tackle the environmental impacts that contribute to global insecurity. Extreme weather events, resource shortages, and migration crises resulting from climate change have security implications, and Europe's security policy is likely to be affected if the US continues to downplay these issues.

A weaker Europe

The Trump Presidency represents a significant challenge to European defence and security, particularly in light of the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East, and wider global instability. While the US remains a key player in global security, Trump’s isolationist approach and his focus on getting Europe to take on more responsibility for its own defence may make Europe weaker in the short to medium term.

The war in Ukraine, the re-drawing of the maps in the Middle East, and the rise of China and North Korea’s active participation in the war in Europe provide global threats that emphasise the need for a more integrated and self-reliant European Defence Strategy.

However, Europe is already way too late to achieve this, and a level of appeasement towards Trump is to be expected, thus weakening Europe further as a global actor.