Zero-sum politics and divorce

Jeffrey Pullicino Orlando was bold enough to force through divorce in to the government's agenda. I won't join the suspicious minds who hint at a some diabolical conspiracy between the maverick MP and the Prime Minister. Clearly JPO's timing on this issue does not suit Gonzi's agenda. All those in the political know seem to concur on this.

Ultimately the long-term effect of JPO's motion is that of catapulting the divorce issue from the periphery to the political mainstream. I say hurrah to that without any illusions that the motion has any chance of making it through parliament.

Another political consequence of the private member's bill is that Gonzi's government is increasingly looking as a coalition of liberals and conservatives, something which reflects its voting base.

One saving grace for the PN would be that of heeding Fr Peter Serracino Ibglott's advice to consider divorce as a "scientific" way of addressing problems facing cohabiting partners rather than an ideological choice. Using this logic even Gonzi might say, 'I do not like it but it is better to have divorce than the current anarchy'. But this would be a difficult path. For there are many ways to interpret statistics and facts. I bet he will try to delay the issue by introducing cohabitation rights. Ultimately the risk is that the only way out of these internal contradictions is to procrastinate further.

Gonzi's coalition remains one where the conservative wing still calls the shots even if it is clearly in difficulty. The conservative segments of the upper middle class remain hegemonic although the party is facing an insurgency of a more liberal, new middle class.

The situation is a bit different in the Labour Party where the pro divorce wing is on the ascendancy and calling the shots. Still the Labour leader, who personally supports divorce, is well aware that he can't win power without the support of the more conservative wing. This is why he won't take the bold step of seeking an electoral mandate to introduce divorce. Perhaps Muscat will be lucky by getting the post election arithmetic right. With the Nationalists in disarray after a defeat in the next election, it might well be the case that PN liberals will feel free to break ranks while Labour conservatives will find it more difficult to humiliate a "presidential" leader who seeks legitimacy from a wider movement of moderates and progressives.

Still this is sheer speculation. Ultimately there is a real risk that opposites will cancel each other out in both parties, with the risk that even a free vote won't secure a pro divorce majority in parliament. After all back in 1997 Alfred Sant failed to secure such a majority despite his attempts to introduce divorce in his short lived government.

This paralysis could be one of the consequences of a stagnant duopoly perpetuated by an electoral system which forces both parties to appeal to all and sundry. Surprisingly in the short term it might well be the case that the emergence of a liberal wing in the PN, may well give the duopoly a new lease of life. For JPO's motion is a mixed blessing for AD. Having been the sole party to propose divorce for the past two decades and to propose a divorce bill based on the Irish model to parliamentarians in a letter sent two weeks ago, AD once more emerges vindicated by the co-option of its ideas by an exponent of a major party. But this could further question the relevance of the small party, which is finding its niches increasingly occupied by independent exponents in two big parties which are willingly or unwillingly presenting themselves as “coalitions” in their own right.

Yet rainbow coalitions could be the perfect recipe for zero sum politics where opposites balance each other out and the country remains in a state of inertia. The only way to change this would be through electoral reform based on strict proportionality between seats and votes. For this will do away with the need for parties trying to occupy the entire political spectrum from left to right to win an election. The advent of liberal or progressive parties on both the PN and the LP’s parliamentary flanks, could squeeze out the conservatives from power for generations to come. The advent of real coalitions based on agreed programmes rather than the blackmail of single MPs, could give backbone to governments who embark on radical reforms in matters like divorce.

But perhaps this is too much for the public to think about at present. And people who need divorce cannot be expected to wait. So the best hope at the moment remains a free vote in parliament. Taking this chance even in the present parliament as JPO is trying to do is worthwhile. All those talking about mandates should be reminded that there is not even a hint on cohabitation in the PN's written electoral manifesto for 2008. That said, any false hopes on divorce could result in greater frustration and disillusion with the political system.