The devil is in the question

MaltaToday's latest survey showed a majority of 41%  expressing themselves in favour of divorce and a further 18% agreeing with its introduction in certain circumstances.  MaltaToday's survey specifically referred to divorce for couples who have not been living together for at least 4 years as was proposed by JPO's private member's bill. A Sunday Times survey shows that 40% would vote yes for divorce in a referendum on divorce while 45% would vote no.

The questions asked in these two surveys were different. While MT asked for a personal view on divorce as being proposed in JPO's private bill, the  Sunday Times survey asked respondents how they will vote in a  hypothetical referendum on divorce. It is important to highlight the fact that we do not know  what  question will be asked in such a referendum.  

I have no reason to doubt the methodology or veracity of the Sunday Times survey.  But I have a big problem with the question; How would you vote in a referendum on divorce?  We do know that most people do not support divorce unconditionally.  JPO's bill and AD's proposal of an Irish style divorce have already cleared the air by excluding a Las Vegas style divorce.  Joseph Muscat has also specified that if he is elected he won't propose an easy divorce.   So at least any question on divorce should be qualified.  Secondly how does such a question account for the opinion of those who agree with divorce only in certain circumstances like marital infidelity? Consistently in all surveys when asked whether they agree with divorce between 15% and 20% of respondents reply in "yes but only in certain circumstances".  Was this category lumped with the don't knows in the Sunday Times survey?

Ultimately surveys are simply a snap shot of reality at a particular time.  The crucial issue is whether the government intends to ask the same generic question on divorce in an eventual referendum on this issue.  

If people are presented with a referendum simply asking them whether they agree with divorce or not I would be the first to abstain and call it a farce.  For before any referendum is voted upon, the people voting for or against should be presented with a draft law clearly stating what kind of divorce is envisioned for Malta.  I personally do not agree with referenda on civil rights.  But if we have to come to that the government will have the duty of first presenting a divorce bill to parliament which would take in consideration all the legal and social aspects of divorce, including such important details as alimony.  The absence of such details could prompt misinformation campaigns based on scare-mongering of all types.  If there is no political will to draft such a law , the referendum will simply amount to another opinion poll.  

Let us not forget that in Italy a referendum on divorce was held to abrogate an existing comprehensive law allowing divorce.  A referendum was only held in Ireland  to overturn a constitutional ban on divorce, (something which we do not have in Malta). But even in that case Irish voters  were presented with an alternative which stated:

"A Court designated by law may grant a dissolution of marriage where, but only where, it is satisfied that—

i. at the date of the institution of the proceedings, the spouses have lived apart from one another for a period of, or periods amounting to, at least four years during the previous five years,

ii. there is no reasonable prospect of a reconciliation between the spouses,

iii. such provision as the Court considers proper having regard to the circumstances exists or will be made for the spouses, any children of either or both of them and any other person prescribed by law,

and

iv

. any further conditions prescribed by law are complied with."