MEP elections: some easy predictions

There are a couple of easy predictions to make about the forthcoming European elections in Malta. Certainly Labour will win with a comfortable majority and probably both main parties will get three seats each.

What is uncertain is the scale of Labour’s victory. For while anything near the 55% mark would legitimise all that has happened between March 2013 and now, anything nearer to 50% would keep Muscat on his toes until the next general election.

But honestly, what does this have to do with elections for the European parliament? Unfortunately not much. I bet very few tuned in to yesterday’s debate between four of the five presidential candidates for the European Commission. Unfortunately our public broadcasting service is more interested in commercial ventures like the Eurovision than fostering interest in European democracy. In this sense one should congratulate left-wing NGOs and the office of the European Parliament in Malta for raising issues like the Trans Atlantic Partnership and the proposed tax on financial transactions.

Unfortunately our public broadcasting service is more interested in commercial ventures like the Eurovision than fostering interest in European democracy.

In Malta, Europe is simply a backdrop for a local test. We are not unique in Europe in giving more importance to local factors. But we are unique in hyping this election into a national beauty contest.

So let's ponder the consequences of the two scenarios possible on May 25. Let's wake up to the scenario of a Labour victory of 55% and another wipe-out for  the PN.

Surely such a result may have a shock effect on the PN. The leadership may console itself with having won parity at seat level but it would be increasingly questioned for its lunatic decisions like abstaining on the civil unions bill and refusing to support the referendum on Spring Hunting.  The worst scenario for the PN would be an unlikely four-seat victory for Labour. In that case, resignations are due. While such an earthquake may bring the party to its senses, weak and desperate oppositions are never healthy for a democracy.

Moreover, a reconfirmation of the 2013 result will give Muscat an aura of invincibility and may well be interpreted as a sign of approval for all that happened in the past year. Judging from the amount of billboards put on our roads by government and the Labour Party it is also clear that the party is actively seeking a plebiscite.

Surely, Labour can be judged on its own list of merits, which includes a Whistleblower Act, civil unions and free childcare for all, three key reforms left on the backburner for 25 long years of Nationalist rule.  But Labour will also be judged on Muscat’s threatened pushback, the sale of passports, the amnesty to businesses that bribed Enemalta officials, the privatisation of energy supply and by the low standards of governance. The cherry on the cake is an impressive list of regressive planning policies, which pave the way for a construction boom.

Judged on the basis of the above, Muscat may well deserve another victory but surely one with a much tighter margin than that in 2013.

That brings us to another scenario: a Labour victory of 51%. In such an eventuality Muscat would still proclaim a historic first - the first time that a party in government won these elections in Malta. But the result would cut him down to size and send a strong message that the people expected much better of him.

The PN would surely receive a somewhat undeserved boost if it gets anywhere above 45%. Its result will depend on the performance of the third parties and the level of abstention.

The Greens may now lack the sparkle of novelty but they still provide a respectable and decent alternative for those who want to cut Muscat to size while still shunning the PN for its ultra-conservative baggage. 

Abstention is also a choice for those who are either not interested or want to send a message. If a sizeable number of Labour voters abstains, the PN may well end up with a result which does not reflect its real popularity, as happened to Alfred Sant in the 2004 elections. This may give the PN the illusion that it can carry on offering the same wares as today until the next election. 

But a respectable result may also give the PN some of the confidence needed to ditch its paranoia and open up to civil society. 

For the Greens it looks like a do-or-die election but irrespective of its result, the party needs a generational change to survive and find a solid niche - possibly on the left of the political spectrum. The absence of the greens would impoverish the political spectrum especially in view of the menace of a construction onslaught.

Ultimately in politics anything is possible and one may not exclude a surge in support for any of the three parties in the next three weeks.  The far right may also be a factor even if the reduced number of migrant arrivals has taken the wind from Lowell’s sails.  Still the writing seems to be on the wall for all the players and the stakes are highest for the PN.