As China and the USA close in on each other

The recent news that China and the US have intensified their co-operation in the climate sector is a positive in more ways than one. It shows that when push comes to shove, they can both collaborate in spite of the way the inherent rivalry between two major powers may develop.

It also sends a positive signal in the energy and climate sectors too. No matter how hard Europe might try to push the climate envelope forward, unless China and the USA put themselves at the forefront of the ‘political climate’, we run the risk of attending the Paris Summit only to find ourselves faced with the same kind of political frustration that the Copenhagen Summit had left in its wake. This especially since Paris 2015 is meant to achieve the comprehensive and legally binding agreement that the Copenhagen event had failed to achieve.

Optimists might argue that even a Paris failure might still leave the door ajar for action on a bilateral basis or else even by individual nations, regions and cities but in my humble opinion international co-operation is integral to any successful way ahead.

Ironically the news came at a time when the international media, including such respectable sources as the FT, have been speculating as to whether it is true that China might end up eclipsing the US as the largest economy this year when it was only predicted to do so by 2019. Given the US’s pre-eminence for almost a century and a half, this will be a really groundbreaking development if it really happens.

Between now and then, we will have never ending debates as to whether this prediction is correct or not, as to whether the figures quoted were correctly worked out as well as whether such calculations had factored in the standard of living too.

We have been reading much about the downturn and imminent meltdown of the Chinese economy only for the same arm chair critics to argue a few weeks later that the Chinese figures might be understated so as not to reveal the full strength and resilience of the burgeoning Chinese economy.

In my opinion this exercise goes far beyond the work of mere statisticians. We would be succumbing to prejudice were we to accept lightly the claim that either China or the USA or even both may happen to be in decline. They both happen to be two big powers. Two friendly nations with which even small countries like Malta would be foolish not to try and maximize the potential that bilateral co-operation with them offers in various fields or sectors, irrespective of what one may think of their respective political systems and political class.

While the USA will continue to lead in innovation, research, creativity and also various educational key areas regardless of the pace, China will no doubt continue to see its clout increase in relative size. This will surely be felt in coming years in various sectors, be they purely economic, technological and undoubtedly military too.

At day’s end, I am sure that even those who might be prejudiced against either of these two major powers will realize that their power and influence must be recognized and constantly factored in. Regardless of the ups and downs of the diplomatic relations between the two countries, recently leading Chinese and American experts have engaged in ‘conversations’ amongst each other in such a manner that even stunned people like Francis Fukuyama. Many have considered this a highly accessible and informative guide to the state of what is arguably the most important diplomatic relationship in the contemporary world.

When China and the USA take stock of each other, they do not only do so at purely leadership level. Such interaction and tracking takes place at various levels and across various strata ranging from those of government officials, foreign policy experts, academia and undoubtedly interested stakeholders too.

Their relationship can be described in many ways but it will always remain a highly consequential one. Billions of lives are affected by how, when and in what manner they might choose to cooperate or compete. At once complex and delicate, such a relationship often develops in a critical manner but it also remains one where they simply have to navigate together, whether by design or by default. To put it crudely, whether they like it or not.

The other day someone tried to list the pivotal areas where such interests contrast or square up against each other. At the fore, one finds trade and investment, military dynamics, human rights, climate change, regional security, the media and undoubtedly the Internet itself. In their interaction one comes across different sets of values, political perspectives, historic elements and also what some euphemistically call ‘strategic frameworks.’

Recently Nina Hachigian summarized why no bilateral relationship is more important to the future of humanity. She argued that the USA and China have the world’s two largest economies and military budgets. They lead the globe in internet users and greenhouse gas emissions and they are also the biggest traders, investors in R&D and consumers of multiple commodities. Both are nuclear powers and permanent members of the UN Security Council.

If China and the USA will in future adopt the same attitude that they have recently been adopting in the climate debate – primarily that they both agree that global warming is an urgent problem, that they are the two biggest culprits, and that both must act boldly to forestall its worst effects - then I am sure that we can aspire to live in a relatively safer world.

Even if they never opt to work and live in perfect harmony, they might try to do so with an ever-increasing degree of responsibility. For a small island like Malta that has long cultivated its links with both countries, this could prove to be a ‘win win’ indeed.

Leo Brincat is Minister for Sustainable Development, the Environment and Climate Change