Simon Busuttil: A diminished leader

Simon Busuttil had set one declared target for his party: that of electing 3 MEPs.

Most observers regarded this target as a foregone conclusion. The fact that even this target is in question speaks volumes on the state of the PN.

Surely the PN faced various handicaps. It started the race as the clear underdog after being trounced in last year’s elections.  The PL also contested these elections with a well-oiled machine, which contrasted with the PN’s more amateurish campaigns.

Probably the PN also had less money to spend and Labour to some extent benefited from the same power of incumbency, which benefited the PN in its years in office.

Yet clearly, the PN leader fails to strike a chord with voters and to win any of those PN voters who deserted the party in the last general election.

While showing perseverance after taking leadership of a sinking ship, Busuttil has failed to charm any switchers or to win back any sizeable amount of voters from the other side.

Moreover although Labour faced internal difficulties, including the first signs of unrest on the backbench and opposition from civil society on a number of issues, like the environment, Busuttil failed to capitalise on any disenchantment with the government.

While five years ago Muscat managed to win MEP elections with 55% of the vote after his party lost general elections by a whisker in 2009, in these elections Busuttil has not even managed to narrow the gap between the two parties.

One main reason for this is that Busuttil is still associated with the 2008 results where he stood out as Lawrence Gonzi’s sidekick. Moreover his style of opposition has failed to impress voters.  His indecisive stance on civil unions and spring hunting may be a factor exposing a weakness in his leadership.  Moreover the party’s abstention on civil unions further alienated liberal voters.

Another major factor is that the PL has managed to perform relatively well on bread and butter issues, mainly by honouring its pledge to lower energy tariffs. Moreover Labour has also delivered on free childcare and income tax cuts.

But the fundamental issue is his misreading of potential Nationalist voters. While in these election the PN seems to have expected its voters to rally around tribal identity and an aggressive frontal attack on the government. One clear example of this was the publication of a ‘Panini’ sticker album meant to expose the betrayal of Labour’s meritocracy pledge, but which gave a negative twist to the party’s campaign.

In reality such a stance seems to have further alienated a segment of Nationalist voters who tend to be less negative in their judgement on Muscat’s government.

Moreover it was Busuttil who deliberately invited voters to use these elections to express their judgement on Muscat’s government. The 53% result for Labour clearly shows that voters have expressed a positive verdict on the current government.

Future consequences

For the PN the consequences of this election are not to be underestimated.  A larger sector of the electorate will come to regard the PL as the natural party of government.  This may further weaken and demoralise the Nationalist opposition as more of its voters who previously supported the PN whom they regarded as the natural party of government may change their party allegiance.  This may also have an impact on party financing with less businesses betting on the opposition.

Ultimately Maltese democracy is reshaped; a hegemonic Labour government now faces a demoralised, entrenched and weakened opposition, which is still licking its wounds.  Ultimately the election result yields a super sized Muscat who can press ahead with the most controversial aspects of his programme after delivering the PN another knock out. 

A sinister chapter

The strong result for a neo-nazi formation should serve as a wake-up call for politicians like Joseph Muscat from legitimising “pushbacks” before sensibly backtracking and shifting to more humanitarian considerations in the past months. Norman Lowell’s success may also open a sinister chapter for third party politics in Malta, especially if they manage to surpass the Greens.