A shotgun election?

Lawrence Gonzi has lost his majority in parliament and an election in the next months is inevitable. But Gonzi will probably put the onus on Labour to present the motion of no-confidence.

In this way he would link Labour to Franco Debono's antics and start the election from the position of an aggrieved party which was not allowed to complete the full term of office thanks to an unholy alliance between Labour and Debono, which brought him down while wrestling against the worse economic crisis in post-war Europe.

On the other hand if the Opposition goes for a confidence vote now, the main issue of the election will be Franco Debono and the way Gonzi was dethroned. 

Franco Debono did express very legitimate concerns on issues like public transport and the justice system. A MaltaToday survey held after Debono stood his ground on Arriva showed that a majority of PN voters still trusted him.

But middle of the road voters are now likely to remember him for lacking any sense of proportion by calling on the PM to resign after a reshuffle which accepted his major political demand but left Debono in the cold.

Many will remember Debono not for his sane arguments on the justice system, but for demonstrating his Form 2 report to the press. Truly, Debono has his fans who admire his guts, but most of these are either Labour Party supporters or people who simply want Gonzi out at all costs.

In this way Franco Debono could turn out to be an asset in Gonzi's drive to lure back somewhat dissatisfied, but mostly apolitical 'pale blue' or younger new voters. Although Gonzi's statesmanlike qualities are highly overrated, the contrast with Debono could prove a plus for PN strategists. 

But while Labour risks being associated with Franco Debono's antics, Gonzi risks appearing as the one clinging to power at all costs if he fails to call a confidence vote himself. If this indecision is coupled with a desperate campaign to unseat Franco Debono (which does not sound very democratic to me), it could expose the nasty side of GonziPN.

With Austin Gatt already promised the role of campaign leader, one could expect the worse. Ironically the Prime Minister who cited his conscience to disregard the popular mandate by voting against divorce in parliament, is now calling on Debono to give up his seat rather than vote according to his conscience.

If Labour refrains from pushing the confidence button, Gonzi would be in an even greater quandary. In the absence of an unlikely pact between government and Opposition, the country could drift through months of uncertainty. 

What is sure is that even if the government manages to buy time if Debono sticks to his guns the election will have to be held before any money bill is approved by parliament. 

This means that there will not be a next budget where government will probably have to admit that its forecasts for 2012 were too optimistic.

But even on this front economic realities  has already caught up with the government's projections as the Commission has already found a €35-40 million budgetary shortfall, something which in itself erodes trust in Gonzi's ability to weather the crisis-which up till now was Gonzi's best trump card. 

Holding an election now is clearly far from ideal for the country's economy. But now that the situation has deteriorated to the extent that the alternative to a shotgun election seems to be a long period of uncertainty and government through legal notice, the consequences of ignoring parliamentary mathematics could be as devastating for the economy as a March election. 

Perversely holding an election now on the Franco Debono pretext could save Gonzi from calling an election after what is promising to be a very difficult year for Malta and Europe. Had the conflict between Debono and Gonzi had not been so charged, one would be tempted to think that Debono was egged on to embark on a path of no return.

Ultimately the writing is on the wall and there seems to be no alternative to an election in the near future, which labour is likely to win. But the Franco Debono episode could have a highly unpredictable impact especially on a sector of the electorate which does not like Gonzi but recoils at those gloating while Rome is burning. This is why Labour must beware of gloating too much especially in view of economic realities.