Turkey’s military coup: A gift from God?

Twenty-four hours into the attempted coup d’etat, we have started to get confirmations about the identities of the coup plotters. In the meantime Erdogan once again called his supporters to take to the streets for a second night in a row, even after it became clear that the coup attempt had already failed. People carrying Turkish and Ottoman flags as well as Islamic banners marched in the streets of major cities and stormed into Alawi and secular neighbourhoods under the escort of the Turkish police force. Syrian refugees have also been targeted by mobs of Erdogan supporters thrashing houses and burning shops.

Reports from the government officials claim that a group within the Military loyal to the infamous religious cleric Fethullah Gulen, who lives in self imposed exile in the US, are behind the coup attempt. At the beginning of August, the military high council will meet and a spring cleaning of the ranks has been expected to get rid of the members of the Gulen Movement in the military. It should be noted that the Islamist Gulen movement has been instrumental in Erdogan’s walk to power. However they have been at war since 2013 when the Gulen movement exposed Erdogan’s corruption and connections to Jihadists in Syria.

Although it would take a while before the dust settles, three main conspiracy theories have emerged regarding the failed coup attempt. The first one is the official government conspiracy theory. According to this theory, Erdogan’s government was not aware of the fact that some generals and other high-ranking officers close to the Gulen movement in the army were planning to overthrow him before the military high council meeting. During his 14 years of reign Erdogan has increasingly centralised his power by almost taking total control of the police force, MIT – Turkish Intelligence Agency, and the top command of the army. Even the ordinary man in the street knows that Erdogan’s intelligence apparatus extends to tapping and monitoring all suspected government officials, members of the parliament and other opposition. Therefore this official conspiracy theory fails to explain how a power hungry Erdogan was not aware of the planned coup attempt.

Behind the scenes, Erdogan prepared the stage for the Gulenist army officers. They believed that they would be given support from other high-ranking military officers who were also against Erdogan’s totalitarian and Islamist policies. So the plotters fell into Erdogan’s trap

What also discredits the official government theory is the Washington Times article published in April 2016 with a headline: “Turkey’s Erdogan uses military coup buzz to expand powers, curb dissent“. Several months before the attempted coup of last Friday, it was clear that Erdogan and the AK Party’ media outlets were openly spreading rumors of a possible coup d’etat.

Furthermore, Turkey has been a haven for international intelligence services who work closely with their Turkish counterparts and share intelligence regarding expected bombings and other threats. Apparently no one, Erdogan, the US, Germany, Israel and others, had any idea what was about to happen at around 10 pm on the 15th of July. According to the second popular conspiracy theory, Erdogan knew what was coming as he had already had the names of the potential troublemakers in the military, and it was a matter of time before he forced them out of the army at the high military council next month.

Behind the scenes, Erdogan prepared the stage for the Gulenist army officers. They believed that they would be given support from other high-ranking military officers who were also against Erdogan’s totalitarian and Islamist policies. So the plotters fell into Erdogan’s trap. Although Erdogan could have avoided the coup attempt before it took place and saved lives, killing the coup before it took place would not have had the September 11-like impact on the Turkish populace and the world.

As someone who witnessed several military coups in Turkey in the past, the attempted takeover of the government on 15 July gave many of us the impression that it was designed to fail from the start. Generally one wakes up to a country that is already under military control as soldiers know very well that hitting “the enemy while it sleeps” is the easiest and most efficient move.

Instead they launched an operation during prime time television and did not even take control of the country’s communications systems including the internet, cable and satellite television stations. Instead, soldiers were sent to block the bridges on the Bosporus and Ataturk Airport, both of which are not primary strategic targets during a coup d’etat. Such a move, however, drew immediate national and international media attention to the unfolding events.

Almost all government officials, including President Erdogan and the Prime Minister, were allowed to appear on national television channels, calling citizens to take to the streets and to fight the coup attempt. Meanwhile the coup plotters, according to media reports, simply sent a helicopter with a mere ten to fifteen soldiers to arrest the most powerful man in the country, Erdogan, who, by the way, was on holiday on the Aegean cost of Turkey.

Exiled cleric Fethullah Gulen: The Gulen movement has long been accused of plotting against the secularists, socialists and the leftist Kurds and thousands of people were imprisoned and faced farcical trials by the Gulenist police, prosecutors and judges in the past

Meanwhile, another assault helicopter opened fire on the Parliament building. Why, we do not know. But, as these images started to pop up on the internet, angry Erdogan supporters took to the streets and lynched ordinary soldiers many of who claimed that they were not even aware of the coup and they thought it was an exercise. By the end of the night, over 260 people were killed and since then over 6,000 people, mostly soldiers, have been arrested.

As for the third theory, it is also suggested that the US could be behind the coup attempt, but such a theory does not explain the disorganisation among the plotters, which led to a major failure in just a few hours. Or did the US give a hand to Erdogan to clear the Gulenists from the army and pave the way to an executive presidency he has been working towards for the last few years? If so why? I am not sure if anyone can answer such a question at this stage.

But one thing has been very clear in Turkey since the country became a member of NATO in 1952, and this is that no military coup would be successful without the blessing of the US. Whatever the reality behind the coup attempt is, it is very clear that Erdogan will emerge as the winner.

Although he has been extremely successful in manufacturing the public consent since he came to power in 2002, he has recently been having difficulty in convincing his supporters regarding the sacking of the former Prime Minister Davutoglu, his bid to become an Executive President, and the U-turn in his foreign policy on Russia, Israel and Egypt.

Erdogan has also been cornered by Israel, Russia and the US with regards to his links with Jihadist groups in Syria, his alleged oil trade with ISIS, and widespread corruption which extends beyond the borders of Turkey.

All these serious troubles seem to be pushed aside, at least for the near future, and Erdogan can now grasp total control of the Judiciary and change the constitution to put an end to the parliamentary system in Turkey, making him the country’s first Latin American-style President with executive powers. Twenty-four hours into the attempted coup, he sacked over 2500 judges and launched a purge to arrest over 150 judges who are members of the High Court and the Constitutional Court. He has also shut down alternative media sites, something the coup plotters had failed to do on 15 July.

One of the main elements of a military coup is to garner support from different segments of the society, as well as the international community. If the coup attempt was the work of the Gulenists, as suggested by the government, then they must have been extremely naïve, to say the least, to expect any support from the opposition in Turkey. The Gulen movement has long been accused of plotting against the secularists, socialists and the leftist Kurds and thousands of people were imprisoned and faced farcical trials by the Gulenist police, prosecutors and judges in the past. But, by exposing themselves like sitting ducks with a failed coup attempt, they have not only given Erdogan the perfect opportunity to carry out a mass cleansing of the military and the judiciary but also made him a hero.

It is not surprising, therefore, that Erdogan reportedly called the attempted coup “a gift from God“. If there is a God, I am not sure it would be sending any such gifts to Erdogan. But one thing is very clear, Erdogan’s exploitation of religious and nationalistic sentiments, coupled with his ability to mobilise his supporters, suggest that there will be very little room left, if any, for the dissent in Turkey.

He has already unleashed his fanatics in mass, for the very first time, onto the streets, chanting religious slogans under police protection and even calling for the reintroduction of capital punishment. Amongst all of the gains Erdogan has had since the night of 15 July, the most significant one has been conducting an exercise with his supporters who carried out a violent hunt side by side with the police force loyal to him. Erdogan has given his base a taste of their own “Gezi Park“ and prepared them for battle in case of civil unrest in the near future.