Hoping for the best, preparing for the worst

While calls for a united country have by now made you sick, on Sunday afternoon roughly half the population would be in a delirious mood while a slightly smaller proportion will be in despair.

At the same time a growing minority will either remain unrepresented or disenfranchised. However, things will not be that simple. The result and the margins of the result will determine the mood and how things will shape up in the coming weeks, months and years.

The rumour mill is currently in overdrive with people trying to guess the result, or rather the margin of victory. With all published and unpublished polls pointing at a comfortable Labour victory, the talk of town is not whether Labour will win but rather by how much.

With just days to go to polling day, this leaves the parties facing at the best possible or the worst possible scenarios.

Let's start with Labour. In the remote eventuality that polls are spectacularly incorrect, a party which lost the last election by a whisker and facing a PN which has been in government for almost 25 years and who experienced a torrid five years, would have been in pole position even with Karmenu Mifsud Bonnici at its helm.

Add to this the radical transformation of Labour under Joseph Muscat's watch, and you have a party which cannot fail to miss out on the prize this time around.

Although all polls indicate a big Labour victory, following the bitter experience of the 2008 election, party supporters will only believe it once the victory is confirmed by jubilant reporters on One TV and looping documentaries on NET TV and PBS.

However, the margin of victory could determine what kind of Labour government will be in place. As things stand, after spending endless years in the shadows of their rivals down the road from their HQ in Hamrun, a Labour win is all that matters for party officials and supporters.

Yet, a big Labour victory could translate into a three or five-seat majority which would make life much easier for Joseph Muscat. As long as Labour avoids the pitfalls of arrogance and over-confidence, it would be able to put itself in a good position to earn re-election in 2018.

On the other hand, if Labour wins by a smaller margin than expected and the PN manage to make a Silvio Berlusconi style comeback, Muscat's government would have to be on its toes and tread the waters with greater attention. A strong PN opposition will not be easy to live with.

But the bottom line is that there is no great difference between Labour's best and worst-case scenarios. Muscat was given a licence to win at all costs and victory is well within reach.

On the other hand, if Labour does win, the margin of defeat for the PN will make one hell of a difference. As things stand, there is no sight of a Hurricane Sandy in sight for the PN and the election result will definitely have a bearing on the party's fate.

At best, PN supporters who are certain of defeat are hoping for a valiant effort and a minimal defeat, while the more pessimist ones are bracing themselves for a trouncing.

However, a big loss could be what some within the PN are hoping for, if defeat forces it to undergo a thorough renewal. A landslide defeat could be a blessing in disguise and facilitate the regeneration of the party, which is showing clear signs of fatigue.

On the other hand, if the PN makes some sort of comeback and manages to eat away at Labour's wide lead, the people at the PN's helm would be in a position to oppose efforts to renew itself.

A big defeat could mean renewal. But if it loses by a whisker or if it closes the gap and gives the impression that the PN is not in as much of a bad shape, it could lead to a bloodbath and a long period of instability.

Alternattiva Demokratika's showing will also determine its future and the country's democratic development.

If the Greens garner a lower amount of votes than its 2008 tally, then the party would have to embark on a serious soul searching exercise.

During this campaign, AD proved that its ideas and proposals are miles ahead of the other two parties. It showed that it is truly progressive and committed to social justice and civil rights.

The Greens once again, if there ever was the need, confirmed that real change in Malta will not be brought about by having two colossal parties swap positions every decade or so.

Real change will only be within grasp when the political system which got us in the rut we are in today, is completely overhauled and the occupation of the public and private spheres by the two big parties is sentenced to oblivion.

If AD manages to better its best ever result of 1.7%, obtained in 1992, the party would not only give hope to its supporters that better days lay ahead, it would also mean that Malta is slowly edging towards modern European democracies which are based on multi-party systems and where public debate is not suffocated by the ruling classes.

This Saturday, we will be given the opportunity to practice democracy for a few seconds. Unfortunately, democracy has been diluted into a one-day exercise every five or so years. Democracy should not happen just once every five years. Democracy should be lived everyday; we should breathe democracy everywhere and at all times.

This Saturday we can vote for real change, a change in which we can experience democracy for more then five seconds, a change which will make the political class accountable to the electorate not only once every five years but every single day.