The abstention election?

According to figures provided by the Electoral Commission, 85.15% of early voters turned up to the polls yesterday, down from 91.7% in 2017. And up until last Thursday, 37,000 votes remained uncollected.

This could be an indication of various factors weighing on this particular election.

One main factor is that the election’s outcome is hardly in any doubt as all polls constantly point at a comfortable victory for Labour. In this sense, a segment of voters may feel that their vote will have very little impact on the outcome. For what is mostly at stake is whether the gap will be the same or less then in 2017.

This in itself will have a great impact on Malta’s future. If Labour wins by the same margin, not only will this be a knock-out blow on the opposition Nationalist Party, but it will also mean that Labour also has the next election in the bag, as reversing a gap of more than 30,000 in five years verges on a mission impossible for any opposition party.

But while an increase in abstention may reflect a demoralised PN vote, it could also reflect the sentiment of a segment of voters which are repulsed by Labour’s track record on vital issues like corruption, growing social inequalities, and environmental destruction; but who either do not trust the PN or cannot see the current crop of PN politicians forming a viable alternative government.

In this sense the PN has only itself to blame for not inspiring trust in these voters.

The same applies to third parties. For while surveys show that nearly one-fifth of voters trust neither Abela or Grech, a mere 2% would opt for third parties. It is true that third parties like ADPD face insurmountable difficulties, including an unfair electoral system and lavish spending by major parties; but judging by their campaign, they have failed in conveying an upbeat and targeted message which could have made a difference.

And while the far right comes across as a bunch of loonies and religious fanatics, the progressive centre-left parties may have the best ideas but their campaigns lack imagination and professional presentation.

By abstaining, voters may be sending a message to third parties to get their act in order and for established third parties to leave space for something new. The most energetic – albeit sometimes erratic – campaign so far has been that of Arnold Cassola, the former AD chairman turned independent candidate since 2019. But judging Cassola’s success remains the most elusive to assess in opinion polls as this candidate will contest only two districts.

But will non-voters send an effective message by not voting? Will their vote be relegated to a footnote in electoral history which can be easily ignored in the aftermath of the election? For while not voting is a legitimate and understandable choice, it may also have little impact on the outcome. In fact, the impact they will have depends on which party they will penalise the most. If more 2017 PN voters abstain, Labour will win with an even larger margin. But if more 2017 PL voters abstain, Labour may win with a smaller margin.

Still, it is perfectly possible that these will cancel each other out, with Labour keeping its current margin even in the context of a reduced turnout.

And while this does not augur well for a viable democracy and will probably result in an even more omnipotent and arrogant government, it falls squarely on the PN and third parties to win hearts and minds. One can hardly blame Labour for winning big. Despite its major shortcomings and pornographic use of the power of incumbency, it still has changed the life of many for the better, not just financially but also be introducing civil liberties which gave visibility to minorities which were previously ignored.

That said, the ominous prospect of waking up to an even larger Labour majority next week weighs heavily on the minds of M.O.R. voters who are still undecided… even Labour voters who would never think of voting PN.

Ultimately, if these join those who are already committed not to vote, we may be on the eve of a Maltese raspberry moment which both parties will find hard to ignore.