Both parties may be affected by ‘abortion fallout’

On Monday, former Education Minister Evarist Bartolo provoked much discussion, by openly questioning the Labour’s government’s handling of the abortion issue on Facebook.

Specifically, Bartolo asked whether ‘Bill 28’ - the legal amendment to introduce medical abortion, in life-threatening pregnancy complications – may be “weakening and fragmenting the massive social alliance that led Labour to its major electoral victories in 2013, 2017 and 2022.”

“Could it be that the abortion issue will create a movement against the PL, in the same way that divorce had created one for the PN?”, he added.

It may, of course, be premature to try and answer those questions, Nonetheless, there is considerable evidence that at least some of this ‘fragmentation’ has, up to a point, already occurred.

Within the Labour Party, signs of dissent are clearly visible both in President George Vella’s discomfort, as well as the Prime Minister’s recent ‘backtracking’ on the amendment’s wording. But the Nationalist Opposition, too, has already lost at least one junior member (Emma Bonnici Portelli), in a possible ‘sign of things to come’.

Briefly put: so far, it seems to be an ill-wind that blows nobody any good. Labour risks alienating a sizeable segment of its own grassroots: possibly to the extent of driving some of them into the PN’s welcoming arms. As for the PN, however: the divorce experience should also serve as a reminder of the dangers of positioning itself too close to the ‘extremist’ fringes.

For even though the PN’s traditional support-base may be more overtly conservative, on such issues: the Nationalist Party, too, used to rely on a ’major social alliance’ – including a more liberal, ‘Euro-centric’ faction - that resulted in a political dominance lasting more than two decades.

Surely, it will not have gone unnoticed that this ‘winning streak’ began to ebb shortly after the 2011 Divorce referendum: in which Gonzi had made the strategic mistake of aligning the PN to the ‘No’ campaign (thus, ironically, underestimating all the pivotal social changes, that his own government had helped bring about).

Having said this: there are significant differences between the two scenarios – divorce, and abortion – and as such, it may be worth comparing the two in closer detail.

With hindsight, there can be no doubt that the Labour Party’s support for divorce legislation, in 2011, paid handsome dividends. Not only did it successfully entice a mass-exodus from the PN; but Malta’s conservative forces in general – including the Catholic Church –found themselves ‘cut down to size’, by a result they had manifestly failed to anticipate.

But that result was only made possible, by two factors. The first – and most crucial – was an unseen ‘wave of change’, that had clearly blown over the country since EU accession in 2004 (and arguably, even earlier). Society’s attitudes towards such issues had evidently evolved, since the 1960s; and after almost 25 years of uninterrupted Nationalist governments, people were – simply put – ‘tired of the status quo’.

The second factor was the effect of that status quo, on the general public. By 2011, it had become abundantly clear to most people (as evidenced by the referendum result) that the lack of divorce legislation had only served to create more social problems, than it ever solved.

And significantly, the extent of Malta’s marital failure rate also meant that almost literally every single citizen, would have been somehow ‘affected’ – even if only distantly – by those problems.

It was, perhaps, a classic case where ‘common sense’ prevailed over ‘heartfelt emotion’. But that was divorce; and with abortion, the lie of the land changes considerably.

To begin with: the heartfelt emotion associated with this issue, in Malta, far outweighs any ideological opposition to purely civic matters, such as divorce.  And while there is evidence that this, too, appears to be changing – to the extent that even the PN has fielded openly ‘pro-choice’ candidates, in the past – it is unlikely in the extreme, to have evolved into the ‘dominant public view-point’, today.

Moreover: abortion is, by definition, an issue which only directly affects a very small minority – i.e, a fraction of women, who actually want to terminate their pregnancy – and in the specific case of Bill 28: that minority is reduced further still, to only those few-and-far-between cases, where pregnancies may threaten the mother’s health.

It seems unlikely, then, that Bill 28 would prove to be an equally ‘watershed’ moment, for Malta, if it were put to a democratic vote. Or at least, not for the foreseeable future.

But with surveys consistently showing a generational change slowly taking place - as more and more young people grow attuned to European values (including female reproductive rights); and older generations fade, and pass - it may well be that any short-term gains to be had, by opposing this amendment today, will have to be offset by much larger, long-term losses tomorrow.

What remains to be seen, from both sides, is: how much of their own voter-base will the parties be willing to sacrifice, for the sake of this solitary amendment? And will it even have been worth it, in the end: for a victory that, either way, will no doubt prove to be Pyrrhic?