Survey numbers are umpteenth wakeup call for PN

The MaltaToday March survey shows that the Labour Party has managed to stop the haemorrhage of votes it has been experiencing over the past few months. 

The survey confirms that most of those who deserted the PL and camped in the ‘no vote party’, are still more inclined to shift back to Labour then cast their vote for the Nationalist Party. The findings clearly show that people may be angry with the government for various reasons but still believe the PL is best-placed to address their concerns and grievances. 

This is even more significant in a context of mid-term elections where voters could otherwise punish the government without risking a change in government. 

These voters still cannot make a leap of faith to the other side. 

The findings show that the PL saw its share of the vote increase to 52.8% from 47.9% in February, while the PN’s share only grew marginally to 42.6% from 41%. 

The current 10-point gap translates into a margin of 28,700 votes, up from 15,400 in February. 

A long-term view of polling numbers shows that the PN’s share of the vote has hardly moved and any fluctuations in the gap between the parties was due to Labour voters switching off rather than switching over. 

The two critical issues we believe have energised voters to return back to the Labour fold are the Joseph Muscat factor and the government’s action to address food inflation through the Stabbiltà scheme. 

Undoubtedly, the excitement around a possible Muscat candidature for the European Parliament election has rekindled nostalgia for ‘the best of times’. 

Irrespective of how bad this leader believes a Muscat candidature could be for the party and the country – the reputational risk is too big – it is clear that people still credit the former prime minister for the good done by the Labour administration and are willing to show their appreciation. 

It still has to be seen whether this excitement will remain even if Muscat does not contest the election but at this stage, it appears that even a mere incursion into the political field was enough to stimulate the Labour vote. 

The second factor that could explain the result is the government’s action to stabilise the prices of 15 categories of basic foods and the downward impact this has had on inflation, which was confirmed by data published by the National Statistics Office. 

The move gave people peace of mind that the government is listening to their concerns and coupled with the COLA wage increase and the various social benefit increases that had been announced in the budget the squeeze on people’s pockets has been partially relieved. 

In these circumstances, voters still believe the Labour Party is the best option with all its warts and defects. 

This result should have strategists at PN headquarters scratching their head. The PN is a very big minority party and it has been so since 2003 – the PN only won the 2008 general election with a relative majority and a mere 1,700-vote difference. 

Unless the PN is able to reach beyond its own cohort of voters it will remain a big party but not big enough to govern. 

Any positive news the PN may have reaped in the past months from polling data was always relative because its ‘success’ depended on Labour’s misfortunes. Surveys show that people are still unable to trust the PN as an alternative government and thus more inclined to abstain if they are pissed off rather than vote for it. 

The reasons for this are manifold. In an interview appearing today, veteran PN MP Carm Mifsud Bonnici puts his finger on one of the problems – the PN’s factionalism and the acrimony that was created by the removal of Adrian Delia. Disunity does very little to convince people the party can be trusted with running the country. 

There are other problems of an ideological nature with the PN seemingly unable to present a coherent centre-right vision for a modern country that has been through a lot of social change over the past decade. It remains conflicted between its ultra-conservative grassroots and the increasingly less visible liberal wing that understands the importance of allowing individuals the liberty to determine their own choices and lifestyles. 

There are problems of strategy. The party keeps falling into the trap of focussing too much energy on the ills of its opponent rather than push forward its own alternative vision and ideals. The party also has to put distance between itself and satellite organisations and individual bloggers, who in public perception are associated with the PN but are outside its control. If comments made by these people and groups – which they are entirely entitled to – are being used by detractors to lash out at the PN, the party must find ways and means of disassociating itself from them. 

There is also the problem of the leader. With all his good intentions, Bernard Grech has been unable to muster public sympathy – his trust ratings have remained miserable. He lacks a narrative and a vision that can inspire the diverse views within the party to work towards a common goal. His persona is not big enough to bring back the lost sheep while still making it clear who is in command. He simply cannot excite people and after being trounced in the 2022 general election he is perceived as a care taker leader who is filling a vacuum rather than an aspiring prime minister.  

The party needs to carry out a soul-searching exercise in a bid to reconstitute itself into a modern centre-right party that looks at its past for inspiration and learning but is not shackled by it. Today’s survey is the umpteenth wakeup call for the PN.