Bernard Grech’s long road ahead

Many Nationalist Party supporters and functionaries were overjoyed by the results of MaltaToday’s survey last Sunday that put the PN 12,000 votes ahead of Labour. 

It was an understandable reaction coming on the back of an improved performance in last June’s European election – which the PN lost but managed to cut the voting gap to 8,000 votes from 40,000 five years ago – and after many years of dismal polling results. 

But the more discerning PN supporters and functionaries were more cautious about the result, which also saw Bernard Grech trail Robert Abela by a significant 16 points. 

The caution is more than justified and as Grech himself acknowledged when speaking in Gozo on Sunday, “it’s still a long way” despite the advantage. 

It is important when interpreting the result that the PN keep three key factors in mind: The difference in votes between both parties falls within the margin of error; the survey suggests a turnout of 75%; and Robert Abela enjoys a significantly higher trust rating than Bernard Grech among current non-voters. 

These three factors combined suggest that a Labour victory if an election is held now is still very much a probability rather than just a possibility. This will depend on whether the PL can motivate disgruntled and disinterested voters, most of who are previous PL voters, to go out and vote for Abela rather than just for the party – pretty much what the PN did in 2008 with GonziPN. 

Within these circumstances, the PN must reflect long and hard on how it can translate its statistical advantage into victory come election time. 

More than anything, it must be in a position to understand the large cohort of voters who are saying they will not vote and entice them to cross over to its fold rather than remain parked in no man’s land. 

To do so, the PN must first understand itself and what it stands for in a country with two decades of EU membership under its belt and a vastly changed society from the one that last gave it victory in 2008. It must also resolve the internal conflict on how to deal with ethically contentious issues such as euthanasia and abortion where the PN’s eternal belief in freedom of choice seems to go astray.  

It is only then that the PN can start to draft its vision for a better Malta. A vision that guarantees tranquillity in transition while bringing about change. It is crucial that the PN has a story to tell; a dream to sell. 

But just as much as political substance and the principles underpinning it are important, so are the storytellers. It is here that the PN appears to have the biggest shortcoming, starting with its leader.   

Grech’s trust rating suffers in the polls, a trend that has persisted ever since he was elected PN leader. The latest MaltaToday survey shows that he struggles immensely among current non-voters, a situation he would rather not be in. 

The Opposition leader should be credited with bringing about a sense of normality to a party that witnessed a rebellion by some of its MPs in 2020 and friction among its rank and file. As mediator-in-chief, Grech brought more cohesion but a demanding electorate is going to need much more than that as the 2022 general election result showed.  

In many ways, the current situation is similar to what happened in the run-up to the 2008 election when the PL was ahead in the polls but Lawrence Gonzi was miles ahead of Alfred Sant in the trust rating. The PN went on to win that election by a whisker only to witness an exodus of voters the moment the PL elected Joseph Muscat as its leader. The psychological barrier was lifted and the floodgates opened. 

Grech and his backers may argue that irrespective of his personal trust rating, he has still managed a comeback for the PN and seriously dented the Labour juggernaut. They may also argue that unlike Sant in 2008, voters have no experience of Grech as prime minister. While these are valid observations, the bigger question will be whether Grech has enough oomph to take the PN across the finish line in 30 months’ time when faced by a Labour government that will use its power of incumbency to the hilt. 

Whether Grech can find it within himself to shine and inspire voters to believe in a PN government has to be seen but the going so far suggests he still has a very long road ahead of him.