EU unprepared for Trumpian storm ahead

Donald Trump’s picks for his future cabinet so far confirm the US president-elect will embark on a policy of international withdrawal, economic isolationism and climate scepticism. 

This spells bad news for European Union at a time when the bloc lacks leadership. 

It is clear that Trump will re-assess America’s role in the world, starting with the war in Ukraine. He is likely to adopt the politics of appeasement towards Russia and scale down, if not withdraw, America’s military support for Ukraine. 

This will leave the EU on its own to shore up Ukraine’s defensive capabilities, a prospect that will most definitely fall short of existing efforts. The EU’s ability to supply Ukraine with the military assistance it needs to stand up to Russia’s aggression is severely hampered by Germany’s weak position. In these circumstances, the EU will have to make a strategic decision where it stands on the issue – tag along with Donald Trump’s appeasement strategy that will most definitely require Ukraine to give up sovereignty on some of its territory; or stand by Ukraine all the way in the hope that Russian forces will someday be pushed back. 

It is not an easy choice. Allowing Russia to prevail by accepting its territorial gains in Ukraine is akin to giving the unpredictable Vladimir Putin a carte blanche to pursue his expansionist ideals elsewhere in Europe. At the same time, a weak EU can hardly dig deeper and further into its coffers and military supplies to prop up Ukraine on its own, let alone provide increased assistance that will allow the Ukrainians to mount a decent fight-back. 

Within this context, the EU must chart its own course, using its economic and diplomatic power in combination with a more cohesive military strategy. 

The same sticky situation will arise in trade, where Trump is prospecting new tariffs on imports to prioritise American manufacturing and production. The EU must remain the bulwark of international free trade but to do so it must find a way of countering American protectionism. The upshot of this impending crisis is that the EU must strive more towards strategic autonomy in several key areas, including food production, energy, high-end manufacturing, research and innovation, the bio-medical industry, artificial intelligence and military investment. 

Achieving strategic autonomy will undoubtedly take years and in some instances, it is doubtful whether the EU can truly be self-reliant for everything. This is why the EU must forge new, closer partnerships with like-minded countries and those in its immediate neighbourhood. 

The third worrying aspect of a Trump presidency will be its lack of belief in climate change and the actions needed to slow down this global phenomenon. 

The EU must step up its efforts to be a world leader in climate change action through policy measures that limit CO2 emissions, investment in mitigation measures and enforcement. However, in adopting this course of action the EU must not ignore those who cannot afford replacing old appliances, cars and machinery with environmentally sound products. The imposition of changes that are likely to cause a financial burden, risks creating push back in society, irrespective of how deeply concerned people are with climate change. The transition to a carbon-less economy must be accompanied by a social transition. 

The problem at this stage is that the EU lacks cohesion at a time when it requires solid leadership. Member states must realise that they have to pull together to create a union that is dynamic, competitive and able to assert its soft and economic power on the world stage. At the same time, the EU must beef up its spending in strategic areas such as energy, logistics and transport, military and defence, chip-making, AI, biomedical engineering, pharmaceutical production, scientific research, robotics, food production and farming, and other areas necessary to make the bloc less dependent on outside forces in critical areas. 

The Trumpian storm ahead will undoubtedly create geopolitical uncertainty, especially in Europe. Unfortunately, the EU appears unprepared to sail through this storm, unless European leaders quickly understand the need for cohesive action across several fronts.