2025: Cracks in the duopoly

Arnold Cassola will finally take the plunge in the new year and officially unveil his political party in a bid to occupy the centre ground.

He has so far confirmed that Momentum is the name of the new political formation. Cassola will be hoping the new party will gain enough momentum to give the Labour and Nationalist parties a good run for their money at the next general election.

Cassola has painstakingly insisted in comments to the press that this will not be ‘Cassola’s party’ but a grouping that brings together people disillusioned with the current political establishment and who want things to be done differently.

Nonetheless, whether he wants it or not, Cassola will be the face of Momentum. It may not be a bad thing because people need to identify with politicians who aspire to lead them and Cassola is today a household face.

But crucially, over the past six months, Cassola has managed to attract a group of people around him that have injected a sense of professionalism in the way he does politics.

We hope to see more of these faces when Momentum is unveiled to better understand the driving force behind this initiative.

Indeed, Cassola is following in the footsteps of some of Europe’s politicians who migrated to the middle ground from parties on the Left and Right. Emanuel Macron (a former socialist minister), Francois Bayrou (a former centre-right minister), Francesco Rutelli (a former Green mayor), are but a few of the more renowned figures, who have made the journey to the centre. Indeed, at one point at the height of his political success Joseph Muscat had even contemplated with close friends the possibility of changing the Labour Party’s name and even considered cosying up with Macron’s liberals in the European Parliament rather than stick with the socialists.

Occupying the centre ground may not be the most exciting thing but it is broadly in synch with the aspirations of middle-class Malta. Admittedly, this is a very broad generalisation but the middle class can be identified as that group of people who want the space to work, earn a living and a make a profit in a serene environment; earn enough money to sustain modest lifestyles while paying the lowest possible taxes; are willing to invest in their children’s education and wellbeing; do not feel entitled to government handouts but appreciate every support they can get to raise their children; cherish freedom but yearn for discipline; have no problem with civil rights being expanded but appreciate an approach that seeks to communicate change in a rational way; are not hung up on religion but still love traditions; expect public infrastructure to be the best; want politicians to be accountable for their actions; and believe in justice that is blind.

If Momentum can weave a blanket that brings together these aspirations that may sometimes be contradictory it could stand out as a force of common sense between the two giants of Maltese politics.

Breaking the duopoly will not be easy. Indeed, Momentum may very well weaken the PN more than it can dent the PL, if history is anything to go by. The end result could see Labour winning the election even if by a whisker.

Nonetheless, as the last two electoral appointments have shown - the 2022 general election and the 2024 MEP election - an increasingly restless electorate is choosing to stay home. Tapping into this large cohort of non-voters is not easy since they are not homogeneous but they remain a potential source of support for third parties.

And with a second political party focussed on a more progressive agenda being set up in 2025 by former Labour MEP Cyrus Engerer, the PL may find that its own left flank could be under siege.

Little is known so far about the work carried out by this new progressive outfit unlike the visible work carried out by Cassola in the form of brainstorming meetings called Vision Circles.

It remains to be seen what impact Momentum and the Progressive Party will have on the political landscape throughout 2025 and whether they will be a force to reckon with at election time.

This leader feels this diverse tapestry of political colours could be salutary but we are also pragmatic in understanding the difficulty to break the duopoly.

Whatever the outcome, 2025 could be an interesting year as these new kids on the block disrupt the political status quo at a time when the electorate is growing increasingly uncomfortable with a Labour government that has undermined the country’s moral fibre with its scandals and its inability to enforce accountability.

Indeed, we hope 2025 could be the year when cracks start to appear in the duopoly.