Desperate bedfellows

Thursday's surprise announcement, that government will enter into a 'coalition' with estranged MP Jeffrey Pullicino Orlando for the remainder of its term, only illustrates the sheer extent to which politicians will, if necessary, debase themselves to stay in power.

In a sense, Pullicino Orlando's resignation from the party was a forgone conclusion, given the outcome of last week's PN executive council meetings. Clearly, relations between the Zebbug backbencher and his party had reached a point of no return; but while Pullicino Orlando's farewell to the PN was expected, his declaration of continued support for government was not.

Nor is it strictly speaking an example of a 'coalition' government, as it has to date been described. Not, at least, in the traditional, European sense of the word, which signifies a government composed of more than one party, in a scenario where no single party can command a parliamentary majority.

Unless Jeffrey Pullicino Orlando has metamorphosed into a one-man political party, complete with his own electoral programme, while no one was looking, the word clearly does not apply to this awkward and somewhat unique last-gasp compromise.

What we are dealing with instead is more of a cosy arrangement between the Nationalist Party and a single disgruntled backbencher; which would allow Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi a little breathing space to proceed with his term of office as best he can; while also providing Pullicino Orlando with an honourable way out of the impasse he previously found himself in... without running the risk of being blamed for an untimely electoral defeat.

Viewed only through the narrow prism of these two considerations, the move was admittedly little short of a political masterstroke. In one fell swoop, the sudden development took practically all the wind out of the Opposition's sails, while also appearing to create an acceptable compromise to two warring factions within the PN: avoiding an undignified conflagration that would almost certainly have catapulted the Labour Opposition into government ahead of schedule.

But it remains debatable in the extreme whether the outcome will indeed provide the stability necessary for Gonzi to see through his term of office to its natural end... which will in any case be next March at the latest.

For one thing, Pullicino Orlando is reported to have given the prime minister his full assurance that he will support government from his new position as an independent candidate... only insofar as government keeps to its electoral programme.

Considering that this is the same Pullicino Orlando who very recently stunned his own parliamentary group by voting in line with an Opposition motion - significantly, after giving the clean opposite impression to both his Prime Minister and also Richard Cachia Caruana (whose career was abruptly cut short as a result of that vote) - it remains astonishing that Lawrence Gonzi would simply accept wholesale an almost identical assurance just a few weeks later.

From an outsider's perspective, it is infinitely more likely that Lawrence Gonzi was faced with a classic Hobson's choice: either to accept this uncomfortable status quo as hammered out by Pullicino Orlando (who now clearly calls all the shots)... or see his own government automatically implode for lack of a parliamentary majority.

By any standard it is a humiliating position for any Prime Minister to be in. It is now painfully evident that Gonzi is simply no longer in control of his own destiny at all. The Nationalist government now stands or falls depending on the whims of one man: a man who, until earlier this week, was pitched in a full-frontal assault on the same PN.

Besides, it remains to be seen how, exactly, to interpret Pullicino Orlando's ominous proviso that he will support government "to see through its electoral programme". One major test for the 'coalition' will be the Budget vote, some time in October. Bearing in mind that this is the last budget of this legislature, and that the 2008 electoral manifesto contains a very specific promise to widen the tax bands... are we to understand that Pullicino Orlando will only support this Budget if it fulfils this promise?

And what if the international economic climate is still unripe for this measure (as Gonzi himself has argued with every budget since the last election)? Will Gonzi find himself pressured by his 'coalition partner' to take a measure that he himself considers fiscally unwise? And besides: what about all other bills currently before the House? Will Pullicino Orlando only support those that reflect the electoral manifesto of 2008?

Even without such considerations, it must be said that as far as the rest of the country is concerned, the 'solution' clinched last Thursday does not add up to a solution at all. It does not end the current climate of uncertainty. It does not dispel the evident paralysis that continues to grip government; and it certainly does not impart any of the 'peace of mind' that the same PN electoral manifesto so rashly promised us all in 2008.

All it does it add a further hint of the surreal to what was already a risible political situation. And that does not exactly help matters much.