A nightmare before Christmas?

Parliament reconvenes tomorrow in a tense atmosphere of uncertainty, against the backdrop of what appears to be a fully-fledged electoral campaign.

This is itself a contradiction in terms. Traditionally, the model is for an election campaign to kick off only once the date of the election has been announced, and Parliament duly dissolved. Yet here we are undergoing the same process in reverse: electioneering has now begun in earnest - as evidenced by the recent billboard blitz, as well as home visits and various events launching individual candidatures - but no date has been fixed for the election; and Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi still insists that he intends to see his term through to the end... though this eventuality is arguably no longer in his own direct control.

All this merely illustrates that Malta is currently experiencing a phase of deep political abnormality, which risks further exasperating a general public that is already showing signs of political fatigue. Given that the election itself may take place next March, it seems absurd that so much is currently being invested in a campaign that might conceivably last six months or more.

Clearly, this is not a symptom of political good health. Going on the maxim that political uncertainty leads to economic stagnation, one can only assume that extending uncertainty to the utmost limit (as the present administration seems intent on doing) will only prolong the conditions for an economic slowdown, just weeks after Malta formally emerged from a recession.

However, even without these considerations, the timing of the present impasse is inauspicious for Gonzi. Maverick backbencher Franco Debono spelt out the implications on his blog this week: warning the prime minister that unless he takes the bull by the horns and announces the date in the near future, he will be risking 'a Christmas eve election', which would be devastating for the business community and for the economy as a whole.

There is an irony at work in all this. Considering that Malta's economic performance is often cited as the strength of the present administration, it is strange that Gonzi would risk undermining his own successes so close to the day of reckoning. This fact alone might also explain why the Nationalist Party has so far presented only a negative campaign: with billboards aimed at shedding doubt on the credentials of a future Labour government, rather than outlining the present administration's own successes after a 25-year stint of the same party in government. The situation is unusual for another reason also. Debono has for some time now been threatening (at least indirectly) to vote against the Budget. Opinion is divided as to whether he will actually live up to this threat - but he will certainly have plenty of opportunity to embarrass government in the months to come: for apart from a vote on the Budget itself, there will also be individual votes on the budgetary allocated to each individual ministry.

The actual schedule of these votes has yet to be published, but with the Budget due to be presented by mid-November, it is practically certain that most, if not all, of these votes will have been taken by early December (i.e., just before Christmas).

All technically count as money bills: so a clear majority (with the Speaker's casting vote, if necessary) is required for each individual vote in order to keep the government from foundering. What this means in practice is that Debono can force early elections at any point before Christmas, by simply voting against any one of those motions... even if he abstains on the Budget bill itself in mid-November. At this point one must also question Debono's own behaviour. Not only has he precipitated an unmanageable crisis on the government bench, but at a stretch one can even hold him directly  responsible for the existing instability, with all its negative repercussions.

Still, now that Debono has practically waged war on Cabinet Minister Austin Gatt, the likelihood that he will support government during all these stages is, to say the least, slender. This leaves us with the uncomfortable prospect of a long drawn-out electoral campaign (conducted in a climate of mutual aggression and hostility, if present indications are anything to go by) culminating in an election immediately before or after Christmas - with all the dismal implications this will entail for the retail sector.

And to cap it all, the decision of when exactly to hold this election (probably the single biggest advantage afforded by our political system to the incumbent party) does not even appear to be in the prime minister's own hands. The most Gonzi can decide is whether to announce the date at short notice (33 days being the shortest time-frame available) or to opt for an official campaign lasting three months, over and above the unofficial campaign which is ongoing as we speak.

Either way, one thing alone is painstakingly clear in all this uncertainty: when Parliament convenes, it will certainly not be House business as usual. One can only hope that the same House's members realise that this abnormal situation is hurting the national interest, and that the situation is not allowed to fester interminably, to the detriment of all.