[SURVEY] Joseph Muscat reaps divorce dividends as PN nosedives

Full data for post-referendum survey held in June 2011 - 53% expect parliamentarians to vote Yes

12 June 2011, 12:00am

6 min read

On the other side of the divide, Muscat registers his second highest trust rating (42%) since he was elected Labour leader in 2008. The trust gap between the two leaders has increased from 10 points in March to 18 points now. Muscat’s gains come in the wake of a 4-point drop in respondents undecided on which leader to trust. The number of those who trust none of the two leaders has remained the same. Both Muscat and Gonzi remain more popular than their respective parties.

Moreover, when it comes to voting intentions, the Labour Party scores its best result in the past two years, reaching the 38% mark. On the other hand, the Nationalist Party barely reaches the 16% mark. This shows that a significant 7% of respondents prefer Gonzi to Muscat but would not vote for the PN.

The survey shows that the divorce issue has dented support for the Nationalist party. While 20% of respondents who voted Yes in the referendum had voted for the PN in the 2008 general election, only 6% intend to vote for the PN again if an election is held now.

On the other hand, the Labour Party suffers no negative consequences from the ‘personal’ Yes stand of its leader, retaining all 15.3% of No voters who had voted Labour in 2008.

Labour sees its support among pro-divorce voters rise from 58% in 2008 to 63% now.

Despite its clear pro-divorce stance during the referendum campaign, AD registers a slight drop in its support since March.

The survey confirms that the PL has continued to make gains among Nationalist voters with a staggering 12% of Nationalist voters in 2008 now saying that they will be voting Labour. The survey also shows a 10-point increase among Nationalist voters now planning to abstain in a forthcoming election.

Majority expects MPs to ratify referendum result

An absolute majority of 53% expects MPs to ratify the referendum result by voting Yes for the divorce bill currently being discussed in parliament. Only 34% would like MPs to vote according to their conscience while a minimal 4% think that MPs should vote according to their conscience as long as the overall result respects the referendum result, as proposed by the Prime Minister.

Significantly the survey shows that 47% of PN voters in the 2008 election expect MPs to vote Yes. The survey also shows that a significant number of No voters have come round to expect a Yes vote in parliament. In fact, nearly a quarter of No voters now expect MPs to vote Yes. This could reflect the position of a growing number of Nationalist MPs arguing for a Yes vote in parliament as party leader Lawrence Gonzi failed to give an indication on how he is going to vote while senior ministers like Austin Gatt have already made it clear that they will be voting No.

Surprisingly 23% of Labour voters and 15% of yes voters now expect MPs to vote according to their conscience. This could reflect confusion among Labour voters who were used to hearing their leader promising a free vote on divorce to his MPs, a position which came back to haunt him after veteran MP Marie-Louise Coleiro declared her intention to abstain while fellow MP Adrian Vassallo announced his intention to vote No.

Methodology

The survey was conducted between Thursday 3 and Friday 10 June. 587 persons were contacted by telephone after being randomly selected from telephone directories. 400 accepted to participate. 300 of these respondents were asked questions for a survey conducted by newspaper Illum. QuestionS on voting intentions were asked before the question on trust in the Prime Minister and the leader of the Opposition. The results were weighed to reflect the age and sex distribution of the population. The survey has a margin of error of +/-4.9%.

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@John Azzopardi When it comes to grinning and to trust or lack of it, no one beats Dr. Gonzi. He grins to each and every Maltese while stating that the increase of more or less 600Euros was legitimate and that nothing was out of place when the raise was given. If that wasn't a sneaky grin across Dr Gonzi's face while saying that, then most probably you need some thick, clear glasses.

Micheal Bonanno •

@John Azzopardi. That sneaky grin is a smile of confidence and satisfaction. Is that weird? Since he became PL leader his rates have been constantly on the rise, while Gonzi's are nosediving.

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If the PNs needs to get realistic, they must do some damage control quick. If they don't, they will lose big. Maybe now is the time to select a new PN leader looking at the dismal numbers for Gozni. Is there anyone on the PN side who will lead it to victroy. Maybe a good time to see if there is. As for Mr. Muscat, something weird about that man. He always a a sneeky grin when he talk. That to me says that he cannot be trusted.

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@ Femawvuci Issa qed twahhlu fl-oppozizzjoni ghall oxxenitajiet u it-tbazwir li ghamel il-gvern ta gonzipn ghax kienet " weak"? Xi tridha tghamel l-oppozizzjoni iktar milli ghamlet? Meta nizlu in-nies fit toroq xorta il-gvern ghamel ta rasu u baqa ghaddejj minn fuq kullhadd. Intom in- nazzjonalisti tkomplux iddahhku u tippruvaw tghattu il-hnizrijiet li ghamiltu intom. Fis 70s gvern Laburista sab pajjiz fallut u refghu minn xharu, fejn bena ekonomija u kumpaniji b'sahhithom tal POPLU ( u mhux ta erbgha tal qalba) Intom tal PN behhejtu kollox u xorta spiccajna pajjiz fallut.

Micheal Bonanno •

Nahseb il-fernezija izjed qieghda f'mohhok! Ma bsartx li se taqa' fil-bassezzi milli tirraguna. Le m'hinix minn ta' gewwa, imma ghajnejja f'wici qeghdin. Min m'ghamelx flus u sar sinjur fejn seta' Daqs kemm ma kienx hemm deputati w anke ministri nazzjonalisti li ma sarux fi zmien il-Labour! X'tistenna minn pajjiz zghr bhal taghna? Qisu hawn Malta l-eccezzjoni! Innota meta ssir xi protesta mill-GWU jekk jehelx il-PL biha? Jien il-Mangion semmejtu minhabba dik l-espressjoni li kien uza waq il-kampanja elettorali. Dwar MLC, wiehed inqas ma jitkellem, la ma jkunx jaf ezatt, inqas ahjar. Iva, nerga ntenni, il-PL irid joqghod attent hafna f'dawn ix-xhur li gejjin. Ibati jekk ma joqghodx b'sebgha ghajnejn.

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Kemm int akkanit Salgister qiesek xi wiehed ta' geww mal PL. Dawk li semmejt int li jien nixtieq inwaddab il hatab hija kollha fernezija ta mohhok. Demonstrazzjonijiet ghadhom isiru go kull pajjiz tal Unjoni Ewropeja barra Malta. Hallina habib iz zmien jghatina parir. Haga wahda nghid jien sakemm il parlament Malti ma jinbidlux il membri, dawn il hniezrijiet jibqu sejrin jkun min ikun fil gvern. Tal ghgeb li semmejt lill Charles Mangion ! Wiehed min dawn li sar sinjur mill kuntratti tal bini taht gvern nazzjonalista. Issa missek issemmi lill Mary Louise li miskina missita l-kuxjenza fil ligi tat divorzju. Trid nibqa sejjer....nahseb ahjar le. Ittawwal dawra mal partit u ghidli kemm minnhom kapaci izommu gvern taht idejhom. Forsi jibdew immorru ghall parir ghand Joe Grima. Hallina siehbi w ghoqod naqra attent qabel tghamel il froga.

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B'kollox minn Jannar sa Gunju 2011 il-Parlament Mati ntaqa' 64 darba. Minn dawn il-laqghat kien hemm diversi Membri Parlamentari li tilfu diversi laqghat. Stephen Spiteri tal-PN jinsab fuq quddiem fejn ma marx ghal 52 laqgha, warajh hemm Peter Micallef tal-PN fejn ma marx 45 laqgha u Robert Arrigo tal-PN li ma marx 21 laqgha. Dawn xorta thallsu paga normali. Misshom jisthu bilkemm jmorru u hadu iz zieda xorta wahda! Pajjiz tal mickey mouse u l-poplu miskin jhallas meta qeghdin jittratawna ta cwiec! Jiena cert li min huwa Genwin u newtrali ma jergax jivvota lil GonziPn! Dan apparti iz zieda li hadu ta eur500 fil gimgha u huwa l-iktar Prim Ministru mhallas fl-storja! Shame

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Expect an income tax reduction in the coming months.

Micheal Bonanno •

The PL is doing its utmost to safeguard against the government's incumbency, but there are limits that one can do. Do you that the government will yield anything for a fair general election? Don't thinks so. But I don't think that the PL will take lying down now!

Micheal Bonanno •

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the only thing that Joseph has to fear come next election will be the power of incumbancy which Gonzi will use to the hilt, like he did in the last one. What is the PL doing to safeguard against this ?

Micheal Bonanno •

@fehmawvuci. Xi tridha taghmel l-oppozizzjoni jekk f'dawn l-ahhar hmistax il-sena kienet fl'limbu? Mhux issa li l-PL qieghed jorganizza ruhu? Xi tridu jaghmel johrog bid-dimostrazzjonijiet u l-istrajks? Nafu bizzejjed kif tahdem il-magna nazzjonalista biex iddawwar kollox favoriha. Mela l-ahjar haga hu l-PL ma jtihiex grist for the mill. Nahseb tifhimni xi rrid nghid. Tiftakar ghax Mangion qal li hemm xi haga hazina fid-dna politiku tal-pn, kif dawwruha? Tiftakar tar-reception class kif dawwruha? Hemm izjed kazi x'wiehed isemmi. Allura mhux bilfors li l-PL irrid joqghod kawtel hafna kif igib ruhu u xi jghid. Anzi dejjem zamm l-interess tal-pajjiz quddiem ghajnejh l-ewwel ghax kieku vera jrid il-poter at all costs kien jaghmel bhal kien ghamel EFA bejn 1977-1981, azzjonijiet industrijali u prostesti u x'ma nafx jien. Kwazi gab il-pajjiz fi stat ta' gwerra civili. Hekk trid int? Jew din skuza tieghek biex imbaghad wara li tkunu tfajtu l-gamar u jaqbad in-nar twahhlu fil-Labour? Ghadda dak iz-zmien.

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@Save Gozo Biex inkunu ezatt...EFA sab 500 miljun maltin u mhux euro...jifigieri 1.3 biljun euro....kwazi darba u nofs izjed flus milli tawna l-EU bejn l-2007 u l-2013 ghax dawn tawna 860miljun...u mhux kollha se nonfquhom minhabba l-inkompetenza tal-Ministri tal-Gvern li hadu 500 euro fil gimgha extra. Ez? Dolores cristina...minhabba l-ineficjenza taghha Malta tlifna skozz flus tal-LLL

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@Salgister I think you meant to say. Wait till 2013 to see what kind of an administration in government the PL will have. Hopefully a decent one because it doesn't matter what these optimists like you are promoting, ther eis a good Maltese saying. TAQRA MIN FEJN TAQTA SEJJER JOHROG ID DEMM.

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@Save Gozo Ghandek mitt ragun siehbi. Ghalhekk qed nghid lil oppozzizjoni kienet ferm dajfa mal gvern biex tipprotegi l'assi ta' Malta. Mur erga gibhom dawk l'entitajiet li tant waddbu flus fil kaxxa ta Malta biex ic cittadini kellhom bonus, pensjoni, edukazzjoni sahha w medicina b'zejn. Dawk inbieghu bicciet minnhom b'xejn w flus haduhom min kellu s-sahha. Ghalhekk jitla min jitla, l-poplu sa' jibqa jhallas ghall dawn il hniezrijiet li saru f'dawn l'ahhar 25 sena w hadd ma ghamel dmiru biex isalva dak li kien hemm. Issa kulhadd ihallas b'dawn it taxxi lkollha, talli min kien fil parlament naqas milli jghamel dmiru.

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@ Fehmavuci Habib jekk ghandek ftit taz zmien tiftakar li meta tela l PL fin 1971 lanqas kien hemm flus biex jithallsu l haddiema tal gvern DAN TAFU? Ara x`kien sar ,Air Malta.Mid Med Bank;Sea Malta;Children`s allowance,Bonus,Djar ghall fqar,Sptar b`xejn, Ghad fadal hafna aktar xi nghid Id disfatta hi li l gvern tieghek bieh kollox li sar minn gvern PL u xorta ghadna qed nerqu Insejt l 500 miljun li sab EFA meta tela .X`ma jixxalawx?/////////////////

Micheal Bonanno •

@fehmawvuci. Why not wait till 2013 and see what kind of opposition the PL will have. Then we can take your comments seriously.

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@Human Torch You are day dreaming that an incompetent opposition that allowed this Government to destroy this island will suddenly become a consistent administration. Unless there is a re-structuring of the elected parliament by replacing most members on both sides of the aisle, this country will continue to suffer the consequences of a criminal organisation in government and a most ridiculous opposition that is willing to sit on the benches in parliament and allow the bankruptcy of Malta. Unless the snouts in the trough from both parties are removed forever, there isn't a hope in hell that Malta will ever have a competent government. The same families and their connections has been sharing this Maltese pie within a theocracy for a quarter of a century and the Maltese people continue to be manipulated because this opposition and the one before had failed miserably to protect the assets of this nation.

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@Human Torch Il-P.N. ma fallew xejn! Dawk mhux l-aqwa li redgħu minn fuq il-poplu Malti u li kkuntentaw lil sħabhom u li baqgħu għaddejjin bil-proġetti mostrużi tagħhom li l-maġġoranza ma riditx? Dawk ngħidlek ilhom jafu li mhux se jerġgħu jitilgħu għalhekk issa qed jippruvaw jagħmlu li jistgħu biex ikomplu jerdgħu, jqaċċtu u jkissru u mhumiex jagħtu kas x'jgħid il-poplu. Probabbli ilhom jafu li mhux se jerġgħu jitilgħu minn mindu telgħu fl-2008! Ma jimpurthomx, l-aqwa li jinqdew huma.

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@Fehmawvuci... Ghalhekk ser nivvutaw zgur Labour id darba li gejja habib...biex naraw dan il leader x'issarraf. Tista ddum tparla u tinhanaq kemm trid izda din id darba zgur Labour fil Gvern ser jkollna...allura alissa ghalaq halqek u stenna biex tara Gvern Laburista kif ser jeghleb il problemi. il PN fallew habib...mhemmx xi tghid aktar!

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Thorny be careful what you are wishing for. Your superlatives to describe the PL leader are commendable, however you are putting too much faith in an unknown leadership. The purification of politics is an iridescent dream. We hope that you are not assuming that once JM gets to Castille, all the nations problems will disappear because the national debt will still be growing, the sconomy will probably be worse off and all the conscience and morality talk will be forgotten. Conscience has no more to do with gallantry than it has with politics. The dead weights on both sides of the aisle must be removed forever before the painful rebuilding from twenty five years of corruption, greed and waste can begin. My friend use caution in your assessments, because the weakest link in all of this politic mayhem, is the fact that Malta has a gutless opposition that preffered to sit idle by while the administrators emptied the vupboards.

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@ The Alchemist I doubt a reduction in the W&E bills. An income tax reduction is more likely.

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The writing is on the wall. But do not expect that Gonzi will take the defeat lying down. He will do all in his power to remain glued to the seat of power. We will see government's incumbency at its very best, load of promises (meant to be broken), favouritism, cutting of ceremonial ribbons (City Gate, Bormla Dock etc) and possibly also a reduction in W & E bills. Then, it is up to the will of the people whether the want to be lumped with GonziPN for a further 5 years. What is sure is that we can say bye bye to the 3 howlers i.e. Mulliett, JPO & JP Farrugia because they were found wanting when they should have stood up to the counted after all their talk. We would be missing nothing, really!

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I always voted for the PN. Come next election, unless they somehow impress me, I will be voting AD. An election defeat is HEALTHY for the current PN. I hate it when people think nationalists love Gonzi, Austin, and Tonio. This 'holy trinity' has been nothing but dead weight since 2008.

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After yesterday's vote the popularity of the party leaders will change even further. There is so many inconsistency and U-turns taken by Gonzi. For instance he says there was no recession in 2008, so the rise was merited. But 2008 witnessed so many increases on electricity, water, gaz, diesel, petrol, etc. No sane Maltese will accept such a vote. . And with Lawrence Gonzi will go down Jean Pierre Farrugia, JPO, Mulghiett, and the newer PN faces like Charlot Bonnici.

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Din hija s-sitwazzjoni li ninsabu fiha. Mhux biss jiehdu zjieda oxxena ta' €500 fil-gimgha, imma whud minnhom hlief jiskarataw ma jaghmlux! X'accountability hi din? http://bit.ly/kIz5OI

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Ghada zmien il-PN u issa l-unika haga li jistghu jaghmlu hi li jipprovaw jiggranfaw kemm jista' jkun mal-poter sa' l-ahhar bhalma ghamlu l-bierah. www.bit.ly

Luke Camilleri •

Dr. Joseph Muscat is not only the right choice but the Natural Choice for the Maltese Electorate! . He is the Leader with the People and with the National Interest at Heart, a heart that does not say YES to increases in bill surcharges! . A true Statesman that really shows Promise, not like Dr. Gonzi ... that just promisesand promises and promises , at our expense!