Abstention reduces Labour’s lead to 17,000

VOTING INTENTIONS | Gap narrows to 7 points before tumultuous week • Non-voters up by six points

The Labour Party retains an absolute majority of 50.7% although it loses two points since March, while the Nationalist Party scores 44.2%, in the latest MaltaToday survey. 

The PL now leads the PN by seven points, which translates into a vote gap of 17,100 on the back of a predicted turnout of 71%. 

In March, the PL led the PN by 10 points and a more pronounced 28,700-vote advantage. The turnout in March stood at 77%. 

The survey asked how people will vote in the European Parliament election to be held on 8 June. 

The reduced gap between the two major parties does not reflect any significant gains for the PN. The Opposition party sees its vote share increase by only 1.6 points despite the PL’s losses. 

The latest survey puts the strength of third parties and independents collectively at 5.1%, a marginal increase from 4.6% last March. 

Snapshot before explosive start of campaign 

The survey results provide a snapshot of the electorate taken in the last two weeks in April before the formal start of the parties’ campaigns and a tumultuous week dominated by the political fallout from the hospitals magisterial inquiry. 

The survey thus does not capture the electorate’s mood over the past week as speculation grew on a possible arraignment of former prime minister Joseph Muscat. 

However, the MaltaToday survey confirms a pattern already established in previous polls showing that abstention is disproportionately penalising the Labour Party in a scenario where voters disgruntled or disinterested in the PL prefer to abstain than migrate to the PN. 

This pattern was only broken in the March survey amid mounting speculation on a Joseph Muscat candidature in the MEP election. The speculation energised the party’s grass roots and possibly reduced the abstention rate. 

In that particular survey, a nine-point increase in the turnout compared to February, resulted in an increased gap between the two main parties from 15,000 in February to nearly 29,000 in March. 

This suggests that as hopes of a Muscat candidature started to fade, so did the enthusiasm of Labour voters, some of who have reverted back to the no vote camp. 

The impact on the electorate from the latest developments concerning the hospitals inquiry and Prime Minister Robert Abela’s attack on the judiciary will likely be captured in the weeks to come. 

How abstention is penalising Labour 

Significantly among Labour voters in the 2022 general election, abstention has increased from just 14% in March to 23% in the current poll. This means that just under one in every four who voted Labour in 2022 will not vote in next June’s election. 

Moreover, the narrowed gap between the two parties can be explained by the PN’s higher retention of its 2022 voters. While Labour retains 71% of its 2022 voters, the PN is retaining 83% of its voters.   

And while a month ago the two major parties were losing a similar percentage of 2022 voters to abstention (13% in the case of the PN and 14% in the case of the PL), in the latest survey the PN loses 15% of its 2022 voters to abstention and the PL is losing 23%. 

In a clear indication that the lower turnout among PL voters is the major factor behind the narrowed gap, the survey indicates a minimal shift from Labour to the PN.     

While the PN loses 1.5% of its 2022 voters to Labour, the PL loses 2% of its 2022 voters to the PN.    

Compared to March, support for third parties and independents has remained stable at 5.1%. But the PL, which loses 4% of its 2022 support to third parties is more vulnerable to these losses compared to the PN which only loses 1% of its support to third parties. 

Trouble in the Labour heartlands 

Compared to last month a breakdown by region shows a considerable increase in non-voters in the Labour-leaning South-eastern and South Harbour regions. 

In the south east, which includes Żejtun, Marsaxlokk, Marsaskala, abstention has increased from 25% in March to 33% now. 

And in the South Harbour region, which includes Cottonera, abstention has increased by 11 points from 20% in March to 31% now. Labour still retains a solid majority in both regions, but has seen its support decrease by seven points in the south east and by eight points in the South Harbour region.   

In the Western region, the PN leads with 35.5% over the PL’s 33.3%. The Opposition party also leads in the North Harbour region with 38% against the PL’s 33.4%. In the Northern region that includes St Paul’s Bay, the PN enjoys a wafer-thin lead – 30.6% against the PL’s 30.2%. The Northern region is also the one where third parties and independents score their best result – 5.8%. 

In Gozo, the PL enjoys a substantial lead with a score of 41.1% against the PN’s 31.7%. 

Support for Labour drops among low earners 

The survey also shows a reduction in support for Labour among those earning less than €1,000 a month. In this income bracket Labour loses 10 points over March amidst an eight-point increase in abstention in this cohort. 

The two main parties now enjoy the same level of support in this bracket. But Labour still enjoys a substantial 10-point lead among those earning between €1,001 and €2,000 and an even stronger 12-point lead among those earning between €3,001 and €4,000. But as has been the case in previous surveys, the PN is stronger among respondents earning between €2,001 and €3,000. In this mid-income bracket, the PN leads Labour by five points. The PN also enjoys a 20-point lead among those earning over €4,001 a month. 

Although abstention has increased in the lower end of the income scale, it remains highest among those earning between €3,001 and €4,000 amongst which 34% won’t be voting. But while among those earning less than €1,000 abstention has increased by eight points, among those in the €3,001 to €4,000 bracket abstention has decreased by 16 points. 

PN leading among pensioners 

In another indication of a decreased turnout among older Labour voters, the PL has lost its majority among pensioners. 

In this category, an increase in abstention of four points corresponds to a seven-point drop in support for the PL. As a result of this the PN is now leading by six points.  

But the PL is leading the PN in all other age groups. Among those aged between 51 and 65, the PL leads the PN by 13 points. The PL also leads by 10 points among those aged between 16 and 35 and by seven points among those aged between 36 and 50. 

Abstention remains highest among 16 to 35 year olds. In this age group 44% will not be voting up from 34% last month. But in an indication that abstention in this category is penalising the PN, Labour has managed to increase its lead among younger voters from eight points last month to 10 points now. 

The PN has managed to narrow the gap among 36 to 50 year olds from 11% last month to 7%. 

A breakdown by education shows the PN leading for the first time among respondents with a primary education where it enjoys a four-point lead.  The PN’s gains in this category correspond to a five-point decrease in turnout in this cohort. 

The PL still leads the PN by a substantial 11 points among secondary educated voters as was the case last month. It also leads by a staggering 19 points among post-secondary educated respondents. But the PN leads the PL by 10 points among the tertiary educated.

GOVERNMENT PERFORMANCE | Non-voters give thumbs up to government

In a clear indication that current non-voters are not as angry as one may think, 61.6% of this electorally strategic category rate government’s performance between 3 and 5.

These include 16% who gave government a high rating of 4 or 5.

Overall, the survey shows a favourable 2.6 rating among non-voters in an indication that this electorally strategic category still gives its thumbs up to Labour’s management of the country.

This suggests that people who intend not to vote in MEP elections are not necessarily angry at government and may have other motivations for abstaining or are simply apathetic.

Government gets 2.9 out of 5 marks

MaltaToday’s Government Performance Barometer has progressively shown the administration improving its rating from 2.6 in December to 2.8 in February to 2.9 marks in March and April.

Respondents are asked to give the administration led by Prime Minister Robert Abela a mark between 0 (very bad) and 5 (very good).

The government is given a pass in all demographic groups except current PN voters (2.3), and PN voters in the 2022 election (2.3). But even in these categories the government’s rating has improved by 0.4 marks over March figures.

This suggests that the government’s focus on inflation through an agreement with supermarkets and importers aimed at price stability, coupled with budgetary measures aimed at low income earners have paid off in restoring the feel-good factor.

A breakdown by income shows the government getting its best marks among groups at the lower and upper ends of the spectrum.

Among those earning between €3,001 and €4,000, the government has seen its rating increase from 2.9 in March to 3.2 in April. While among those earning between €1,001 and €2,000 a month the government’s rating has increased from 2.9 to 3. But among those earning less than €1,000 a month, the government’s rating has decreased from 3 to 2.9.

Once again, the government gets its lowest rating among those earning between €2,001 and €3,000 (2.6) and among those earning over €4,000 (2.5).

The government also gets a positive rating in all regions ranging between 2.8 in the Northern Region and 3.1 in the South Harbour.

In Gozo, the government is given a rating of 3, slightly down from 3.2 in March.

The government’s rating has remained stable at 2.9 in both the North Harbour and the South-Eastern regions.

A breakdown by age shows that the government is given the lowest rating by 36 to 50 year olds (2.7) and the highest rating by over 65 year olds (3.1). The latter finding is particularly interesting because the survey also shows that over 65 year olds were the only age bracket where the PN is scoring a majority.