Labour leads by 8 points and 21,500 votes

The Labour Party remains solidly in pole position leading the Nationalist Party by 8.4 points, which translates in to a gap of 21,539 votes.

Just two weeks before the European election is due, a new MaltaToday survey is predicting a turnout of 69.7%.

The gap between the two major parties represents a marginal increase from 7.7 points and 19,864 votes in the previous survey held in the beginning of the May. The difference between the two surveys is within the margin of error of both surveys. 

The latest poll was conducted between 13 and 21 May, dominated by political controversy on the arraignment of former prime minister Joseph Muscat over the hospitals scandal with Labour’s MEP candidates rallying behind the former leader. 

The survey suggests that the increased political polarisation has not resulted in any overall increase in the turnout which has remained stable, increasing by a negligible 0.3 points from the previous survey.

The PL has increased its support by 1.4 points to reach an absolute majority of 50.8% while support for the PN has also increased by 0.7 points. Support for third parties has slipped from 8.9% to 6.8%.

PN narrows gaps but makes few inroads

The survey confirms previous trends showing that the PN has narrowed the gap with Labour when compared to election results of the past decade that all resulted in a super majority for Labour of over 35,000 votes.

Although the survey does register a small shift from the PL to the PN, most of the PL’s losses are the result of a higher abstention rate among its voters.

While the  PN loses 16.8% of its 2022 general election voters to abstention, the PL loses 19.1% of its voters.

The survey also suggests that at this juncture Labour is losing more to third parties than the PN. While only 1.3% of PN voters in 2022 opt for a third party, the percentage increases to 3.5% among PL voters. 

And while the PL loses 3.3% of its 2022 voters to the PN, only 1.3% of PN voters intend voting for the PL.

Overall while the PN retains 80.8% of its 2022 voters, the PL is retaining 74.1%.

Younger and middle aged voters punishing Labour

The survey shows Labour leading in all age groups, but its advantage is substantially narrowed among younger and middle aged respondents. While the PL is leading the PN by a staggering 15 points among over 65 year olds, the gap between the two parties decreases to 3.9 points among 36 to 50 year olds, to 2.1 points among under 35 year olds and to just 1.8 points among 51 to 65 year olds.

Abstention is also higher among younger and middle aged voters peaking at 40.8% among 16 to 35 year olds, dropping to 36.6% among those aged between 36 to 50 and to 27.2% among those aged between 51 and 65 and to just 15.8% among over 65 year olds.

Support for third parties is also higher among younger respondents peaking at 8.3% among 16 to 35 year olds and dropping to just 1% among over 65 year olds.

Low income earners and secondary educated rally behind Labour

The survey also shows Labour leading among respondents earning less than €2,000 a month and the PN leading among respondents earning more than that amount.

The survey shows Labour enjoying its greatest advantage among respondents earning less than €1,000, amongst which it leads by 19.2 points. The PL also leads by nine points among those earning between €1,001 and €2,000.

On the other hand, the PN leads by 12 points among those earning between €2,001 and €3,000 and by 10 points among those earning over €3,000.

A breakdown by education also suggests a sharp divide, with Labour leading by 21.6 points among the secondary educated and by a staggering 28 points among those with a primary level of education.

However, Labour’s lead drops to 6.7 points among those with a post-secondary level of education while the PN is leading by 18.6 points among the tertiary educated.

Compared to the previous survey the PL has solidified its support among the secondary educated where it now commands 44.4% compared to 40.7% in the previous survey. The PN has solidified its support among the tertiary educated where support for the party has gone up from 32.7% to 38.3%.

Support for third parties is also highest among the tertiary educated (9.3%) and those earning over €3,000 a month (9.7%).

However, abstention is also highest among the tertiary educated (33.2%) and those earning over €3,000 a month (35.9%). 

PL leads in the south and Gozo

The survey shows Labour retaining its strong advantage in the South-Eastern region where it leads by 21.7 points and South Harbour region where it leads by a staggering 29.8 points. In both regions, which includes traditional Labour strongholds, support for the party has remained stable when compared to the previous survey.

The survey also shows Labour leading by 5.9 points in Gozo, down from 10 points in the previous survey. The PL’s narrowed advantage in Gozo comes amidst a sharp increase in non-voters from 29.2% in the previous survey to 35.4% now.

The parties are once again running neck to neck in the Northern district which includes St Paul’s Bay, Mellieha and Naxxar. But the PN leads by a modest margin in the North Harbour region (6.5 points) and the Western region (5.7 points).

Abela leads Bernard Grech by 15 points

Prime Minister Robert Abela is leading Opposition leader Bernard Grech by 14.7 points in MaltaToday’s trust barometer, up from 11 points in the beginning of May.

But in a sign of growing distrust in the political establishment, for the second consecutive time a relative majority (38.7%) does not trust either of the two political leaders.

Compared to the previous survey Abela has gained 1.2 points while Grech has lost 2.8 points. Respondents who do not trust either of the two leaders have increased by 1.6 points.

Once again, the survey shows that an absolute majority (54%) of 16 to 35 year olds trusts neither of the two political leaders.

The increased gap between the two political leaders is explained by a 5.4-point drop in Grech’s trust rating among Nationalist voters from the 2022 general election and a 1.8-point increase in Abela’s trust rating among Labour voters. 

Significantly, 35.1% of PN voters in 2022 and 21.1 of PL voters trust neither of the two leaders. 

Distrust in both leaders does not necessarily translate into abstention in the forthcoming MEP election. But the survey suggests that PN voters who distrust Grech are more likely to vote for their party than PL voters who distrust Abela.

While 25.4% of current PN voters trust neither Abela nor Grech, only 5.4% of current PL voters distrust both leaders. 

The survey shows both leaders making very limited inroads outside their respective parties. While 2.4% of Labour voters in 2022 now trust Grech more than Abela, 3.2% of PN voters trust Abela more than Grech.

Not surprisingly among current non-voters the vast majority (81.8%) trusts neither of the two leaders. But in an indication that Labour can still lure back some of these voters, while 12.6% trust Abela only 5.6% trust Grech. This suggests that in the final weeks of the campaign Labour has a greater chance of recovering some support in this category.

Abela leads Grech in all age groups 

The survey shows Abela leading Grech in all age groups. 

But in a clear sign of a loss of trust in both leaders among younger voters, a staggering 54% of under 35-year-old voters, and 46.8% of 36 to 50 year olds trust neither leader.

Trust in both leaders is highest among over 65 year olds where Abela leads Grech by 16.6 points.  Abela also leads Grech by 9.5 points among those aged between 51 and 65, by 16.5 points among those aged between 36 and 50 and by 15.7 points among 15 to 35 year olds.

 Abela leads in five out of six regions 

Abela emerges as the most trusted political leader in every Maltese region except the Western region where Grech leads by a whisker. But a relative majority trust neither of the two leaders in the Northern, North Harbour, Western and Gozo regions.

The highest level of distrust (52%)  in the two leaders was expressed by Gozitans, followed by inhabitants of the Northern region (44%) and is lowest in the South-Eastern region where only 28.2% trust neither of the two leaders.

Abela gets his best rating in the South-Eastern region (51%) where he leads Grech by 30.2 points and the South Harbour region (49.6%) where he leads Grech by 37.4 points.

Low income earners rally behind Abela

The survey also shows that distrust in both leaders is highest among affluent voters; 51.1% among those earning a monthly income of over €3,000 and 50.6% among those earning between €2,001 and €3,000.  Abela enjoys his best trust rating among low income earners particularly those earning less than €1,000 where 47.8% trust Abela and only 18.7% trust Grech. Abela also leads Grech by 17.points among those who earn between €1,001 and €2,000. But Grech leads Abela by 2.7 points among those earning between €2,001 and €3,000 and by 2.6 points among those earning more than €3,000.

Abela leads Grech in all educational groups except the tertiary educated amongst which the Opposition leader leads the Prime Minister by 8.8 points. But even in this category the majority (50%) trusts neither of the two leaders.

Government barely scrapes pass mark

Despite the ruling party’s substantial electoral advantage voters are showing signs of dissatisfaction with the government’s overall performance, now rated at 2.45 out of 5.

This emerges from the Government Performance Barometer in which respondents are asked to give the administration led by Prime Minister Robert Abela a mark between 0 (very bad) and 5 (very good).

Previous surveys had progressively shown the administration improving its rating from 2.6 in December to 2.8 in February and 2.9 marks in March and April when the last performance barometer was held.

But in a worrying sign for Abela who may be banking on the government’s track record in running the country to offset any damage from the hospitals scandal, the latest survey shows a dip in the government’s overall rating which now stands at 2.45.  The survey also coincides with the resignation of Deputy Prime Minister Chris Fearne from the Cabinet following his arraignment in the hospital inquiry.

Weighing on the government’s relatively low rating is a significantly lower score among non- voters amongst which the government is given a rating of 2.1 down from 2.6 a month ago.

Not surprisingly, during a bitter electoral campaign, the government’s rating has also fallen from 2.3 to 1.7 among PN voters in 2022.  But the government’s rating has also fallen from 3.5 to 3.2 among Labour voters in 2022.

A breakdown by age shows that the government is given the best rating by respondents aged over 65 years of age (2.7) and the lowest rating by respondents aged between 36 and 50 (2.3).

A breakdown by income shows the government getting its best marks among low income earners particularly among those earning less than a monthly income of €1,000. Amongst these voters, the government is given a rating of 2.6. The government also gets a 2.5 pass among those earning between €1,001 and €2,000. But the government’s rating falls to just 2.2 among both those earning between €2,001 and €3,000 a month and those earning more than €3,000.

This suggests that the government’s focus on price stability and boosting the incomes of low earners through income supplements and cash handouts  is appreciated by those who are most in need.  But more affluent categories are less enthusiastic then they were last month.

A breakdown by region shows the government getting a positive rating in the South Harbour (2.8) and the South-Eastern regions (2.6) , a pass mark in Gozo (2.5) and a lower rating in the Northern region (2.4) and the North Harbour (2.3) the Western region (2.3).