Metsola leading Agius Saliba for top spot

Two weeks before the country heads to the polls, Roberta Metsola and Alex Agius Saliba remain in pole position with the EU parliament President leading the Labour incumbent by five points.

The survey shows Metsola polling at 19.6%, and Agius trailing at 14.2%.  

Moreover, since a significant number of voters (55.5%) replied that they are still undecided on which candidate to vote for, both candidates may increase their voting tally on election day.

Moreover, since uncertainty is even greater among current Labour voters (61%) than among PN voters (47.1%) Agius Saliba has more room to grow in the next days, possibly edging closer to Metsola on polling day as more Labour voters make up their mind.  

But the high indecision among Labour respondents may also reflect the absence of political heavy weights in a Labour ticket mostly made of new-comers.

Metsola and Agius Saliba are also the only two candidates mentioned in the survey whose score is greater than the survey’s margin of error. This means that the results of other candidates are only indicative.

The survey can only give an indication on the chances other candidates have of getting elected and much will depend on the inheritance from the two leading candidates as well as from candidates who are eliminated in the long and complicated process of vote transfers.

MaltaToday also asked respondents voting for Metsola and Agius Saliba to state for which candidate they intend giving their second preference.

Casa inheriting most votes from Metsola

An analysis of the result shows that David Casa who was only mentioned by 1% of respondents as their first choice, is poised to inherit 43% of Metsola’s vote while Peter Agius who was mentioned by nearly 2% of respondents as their first choice, is poised to inherit 28% of Metsola’s vote.

This makes Casa and Agius clear favourites to accompany Metsola in Brussels if the party wins three seats while Casa has an advantage over Agius if the party only elected two seats.

Significantly the survey suggests that the elections will also see a degree of cross party voting particularly among Metsola voters, 7.2% of which will vote for candidates from other parties.  

These include 3.2% who will vote for independent candidate Arnold Cassola and 2.2% who will be voting for Labour’s Alex Agius Saliba.

Daniel Attard inheriting most votes from Agius Saliba

The survey suggests a very tight race between Daniel Attard, Clint Flores and Steve Ellul for Labour’s third and potential fourth seat with the three of them getting a score in the range of 1% to 2%.  But when second preferences are taken in to account, Daniel Attard who is poised to win second preferences from 24% of Agius Saliba’s voters, is emerging as a clear favourite for second place well ahead of Steve Ellul who inherits 8% of Agius Saliba’s vote.

Clint Flores who only inherits 6% of these votes, and is surpassed by Claudette Abela Baldacchino who inherits 7% and is at level with Thomas Bajada (6%).

This suggests that Labour’s third and potential fourth seat are up for grabs.

Cassola and Lowell lead in third party vote

Although the survey shows that 7% are poised to vote for a third party or independent, the two front runners in this camp are namely Arnold Cassola and Norman Lowell who are scoring just below 1%.

The main reason for this anomaly is that a staggering 70% of third-party voters are still undecided on who to vote for. 

This means that on election day both candidates and potentially others from the third-party camp, could get a significantly higher number of votes than that registered in the survey.

But the survey suggests a tight race for best third-party performer between Norman Lowell, a self-avowed white supremacist and Arnold Cassola, a seasoned former green politician and tireless campaigner for good governance.  While both score just below 1%, their share could grow in view of the high percentage of don’t knows among third party voters.