Labour lead widens to 24,000 votes as PN slips by one point

With the election campaign drawing to a close the Labour Party has widened the gap over the Nationalist Party to 24,262 votes.

The increased gap is the result of a decrease in support for the PN, which sheds one percentage point over the last survey. Support for the PL has remained stable at 50.7% with the PN registering 41.4%.

Support for third parties and independent candidates has increased by one point and is now at 7.9%.

The latest poll was conducted over two weeks between 22 May and 4 June. The survey coincided with the publication of the magisterial inquiry on the hospitals scandal by MaltaToday.

The survey suggests that increased political polarisation has not resulted in any overall increase in the turnout which has remained stable at 69.9%, increasing by a negligible 0.2 points from the previous survey.

PN narrows gap compared to election results

The survey confirms previous trends showing that the PN has narrowed the gap with Labour when compared to election results of the past decade that all resulted in a super majority for Labour of over 35,000 votes.

But the survey does not show any significant shift from the PL to the PN and most of the PL’s losses are the result of a higher abstention rate among its voters.

The survey shows the PL losing 2.8% of its 2022 general election voters to the PN, and the PN losing 1.3% of its 2022 voters to the PL.

On the other hand, while the PN loses 15.5% of its 2022 general election voters to abstention, the PL loses 18.8% of its voters.

The survey also suggests that at this juncture the PN is losing more to third parties than the PL. While only 2.6% of PL voters in 2022 opt for a third party, the percentage increases to 4.7% among PN voters. 

Overall, while the PN retains 78.5% of its 2022 voters, the PL is retaining 75.9%.

12% of under 35 year olds set to vote for a third party

The survey shows a generational divide between younger and older voters with the former being more inclined to vote for a third party or to abstain.

Among 16 to 35 year olds the two major parties only command the support of 43.9% in contrast to 87.1% among over 65 year olds. Support for third parties falls from 11.8% among under 35 year olds to just 0.6% among over 65 year olds. Abstention also falls from a remarkable 44.3% among under 35 year olds to just 12.3% among over 65 year olds.

And while Labour leads the PN in all age groups, the gap is substantially greater among over 65 year olds  where Labour leads by 12.1 points.  The gap is substantially narrowed among 51 to 65 year olds where Labour leads by just 0.5 points and among 36 to 50 year olds where it leads by 4 points.  But among under 35 year olds Labour’s lead increases again to 8.8 points. 

The survey also shows that support for third parties decreases with age, from 11.8% among under 35 year olds to 7.8% among 36 to 50 year olds to just 1.1% among 51 to 65 year olds and 0.6% among over 65 year olds.

Low income earners and secondary educated rally behind Labour

The survey also shows Labour leading the PN in all income brackets. But the gap drops to just 0.3 points among those earning between €2,001 and €3,000. In contrast, Labour is leading by 13.1 points among those earning less than €1,000 and by 6.5 points among those earning between €1,001 and €2,000.

Abstention and support for third parties is highest among those earning more than €3,000.  In this category where Labour leads the PN by 6.9 points, support for third parties peaks at 9.7% and abstention peaks at 36%.

A breakdown by education also suggests a sharp divide, with Labour leading by 16.8 points among the secondary educated and by a staggering 21.2 points among those with a primary level of education.

However, Labour’s lead drops to 11.2 points among those with a post-secondary level of education while the PN is leading by 12.9 points among the tertiary educated.

Support for third parties is also highest among the tertiary educated (10.3%) but decreases  to 5.2% among the post-secondary educated and to just 3% among the secondary educated.  Third parties are practically inexistant among voters with a primary level of education.

Labour dominates the south by wide margins

For the first time in the campaign, the survey shows the PN enjoying a small 2.3-point lead in Gozo where Labour enjoyed a 5.9-point lead in the last survey.

The PN is also leading by 2.6 points in the Northern region which includes localities like Mellieha, St Paul’s Bay and Mosta and by a more substantial 9.6 points in the North Harbour region which includes Sliema, Birkirkara and Msida.

But while the PN has made small inroads in northern and central Malta, the PL is leading by a very wide margin of 27 points in the South East, which includes localities like Marsaskala and Zejtun, and a staggering 33.1 points in the South Harbour, which includes the PL’s Cottonera strongholds.

But in the Western region the two main parties are practically neck to neck as they were in previous surveys.  Support for third parties also peaks at 10.6% in this region which includes Attard and Zebbug.

TRUST BAROMETER

Robert Abela trust stable as Bernard Grech climbs two points

Prime Minister Robert Abela is leading Opposition leader Bernard Grech by 12.3 points on the MaltaToday’s Trust Barometer, down from 14.7 points in the last survey.

Abela has retained the same trust rating of 38% while Grech has gained two points.

However, a substantial 37.1% of the electorate trusts neither leader.

Once again, the survey shows that an absolute majority (52.3%) of 16 to 35 year olds trusts neither of the two political leaders. Distrust in both leaders also remains widespread in the 36 to 50 age bracket where 49% trust neither of the two main leaders.

Significantly, 35.6% of PN voters in 2022 and 23.2% of PL voters trust neither of the two leaders. 

The survey suggests that PN voters who distrust Grech are more likely to vote for their party than PL voters who distrust Abela.

The results show that 27.6% of current PN voters and 12% of current PL voters trust neither Abela nor Grech. Both leaders are making very limited inroads outside their respective parties. While 4% of Labour voters in 2022 now trust Grech more than Abela, 2.8% of PN voters trust Abela more than Grech.

Not surprisingly among current non-voters the vast majority (68.4%) trusts neither of the two leaders.

But while 17.7% of current non-voters trust Abela only 13.9% trust Grech. This suggests that in the final weeks of the campaign Labour has a greater chance of recovering some support in this category.

Abela leads in all age groups

The survey shows Abela leading Grech in all age groups.

Trust in both leaders is highest among over 65 year olds where Abela leads Grech by 12.3 points.  The Labour leader also leads Grech by 6.2 points among those aged between 51 and 65, by 13.4 points among those aged between 36 and 50 and by 16.1 points among 16 to 35 year olds.

Abela leads in five out of six regions 

On a geographical basis, Abela emerges as the most trusted political leader in every Maltese region except the North Harbour region where Grech leads by 4.4 points. But a relative majority trust neither of the two leaders in the Northern, North Harbour, Western and Gozo regions. Distrust in both politicians peaks at 44% in the Western region.

Abela gets his best rating in the South-Eastern region (48%) where he leads Grech by a whopping 32.3 points and the South Harbour region (52.8%) where he leads Grech by an even bigger margin of 38.5 points.

Significantly, Abela leads Grech by 2.6 points in Gozo where the PN commands a 2.3-point lead over Labour.

Affluent voters distrust both leaders

The survey also shows that distrust in both leaders is highest among affluent voters; 53.8% among those earning a monthly income of over €3,000 and 40.9% among those earning between €2,001 and €3,000. 

Abela enjoys his best trust rating among low income earners, particularly those earning less than €1,000 where 43.7% trust Abela and only 25.6% trust Grech. But surprisingly Abela also leads Grech by 7.5 points among those earning over €3,000.

The survey shows Grech enjoying his best trust rating (26.6%) among those earning between €2,001 and €3,000.

Abela leads Grech in all educational groups except the tertiary educated amongst which the Opposition leader leads the Prime Minister by 6.4 points. But even in this category the majority (50.8%) trusts neither of the two leaders.