PN leads Labour by 12,000 votes despite Bernard Grech’s poor showing

SUMMARY

The Nationalist Party has an advantage of 12,000 votes over the Labour Party in MaltaToday’s first survey since June’s European election. 

The PN enjoys the support of 48.2% of the electorate, a 4.4-point lead over the PL on a projected turnout of 75.7%. 

The PN’s success comes despite the unpopularity of its leader Bernard Grech, who trails Robert Abela by 16 points on the Trust Barometer. MaltaToday’s new trust question asks which leader respondents trust most to run the country. 

Nonetheless, the result suggests the PN’s relative improvement in the MEP election has maintained an upward trajectory throughout the summer.

VOTING INTENTIONS: PN leads by 12,000 votes in first MaltaToday survey after European election

The Nationalist Party has emerged ahead of the Labour Party with a lead of 11,699 votes in the first MaltaToday survey after the June MEP elections.

The survey puts support for the PN at 48.2% and the PL at 43.8% with ADPD securing 4.5% and other parties or independents 3.5%.

In June, the PL won a relative majority in the European election, beating the PN with a slim 8,500-vote margin. Four months later, the shift towards the PN is attributable to a higher abstention rate among Labour voters and the Opposition’s small gains among PL voters and non-voters.

The survey results show that if a general election were to be held now, the turnout would be 75.7%, which would be the lowest in any general election held since 1950.

The difference between the two main parties falls squarely within the survey’s margin of error, which technically means that either party could be in the lead.

What is sure, however, is that the PN has substantially narrowed or wiped out Labour’s 39,000-vote advantage in the 2022 general election.

The survey was conducted in the period when the PL was electing its two deputy leaders and other members of the administration and executive, following a summer of internal turbulence.

Compared to the 2022 general election, the survey suggests that the PL has lost a staggering 45,035 votes, which are now mostly parked in the non-voters camp. However, the PN has only gained 6,138 votes while non-voters have increased by 26,236.

A comparison with vote tallies from the June MEP election shows the PL practically retaining the same number of votes. In contrast, the PN gains 20,000 votes, mostly thanks to a higher turnout among its 2022 voters, including some who missed the MEP election but would vote for the PN in a general election.

The survey also suggests that support for third parties in a forthcoming general election would rise to 8%, split between 4.5%, who would vote for ADPD and 3.5% for other parties.

PN retains more votes

The PN retains 80% of its MEP election voters and 81% of its 2022 general election voters

One major reason for the PN’s lead is its higher retention rate of 2022 general election voters. While the PL barely retains 69% of its former voters, the PN retains 81% of its 2022 voters. Moreover, while Labour retains 78% of its MEP election voters, the PN retains 80%.

Significantly, while the PN loses 12.5% of its 2022 voters and 15% of its MEP election voters to abstention, PL losses to the non-voting camp increase to 22% among its 2022 voters and to 17% among its MEP election voters.

Moreover, Labour’s losses to abstention are topped up by smaller losses to the PN. While the PN loses only 2% of its 2022 voters to Labour, it gains 6% of Labour voters from the same general election.

Furthermore, Labour loses 3% of its MEP election voters to the PN, while the PL gains only 1% of PN voters. The PN also makes greater inroads than Labour among non-voters in the 2022 general election, 26% of whom will now vote PN compared to just 6% who will vote Labour. And while only 15% of non-voters in last June’s MEP elections will now vote PL, 20% will vote PN.

The survey also shows that the PN is making greater inroads among third-party voters in recent MEP elections. While only 13% of these voters will vote Labour now, 26% will vote PN. However, a substantial 38% of these voters will still vote for a third party in a forthcoming general election. The survey also shows that ADPD, which barely scraped the 1% mark in MEP elections, is now taking a substantial chunk of the third-party vote (22%) in these elections. This suggests the Greens have managed to survive the latest setback and are polling at nearly 4.5%, possibly in their role as Malta’s default third party.

PN leads in four out of six regions

Mellieha is in the Northern region where the PN commands a relative majority of 45%, the same as it does in the Northern Harbour

The survey shows that the PN has taken the lead in the Northern, North Harbour, Western, and Gozo regions, while the PL still leads by a wide margin in the South-eastern region and by a lower margin in the South Harbour.

The PN's support peaks in the Northern and North Harbour regions, where the party commands a relative majority of 45% of the total number of voters, including non-voters. The party also leads in Gozo (41%) and the Western region (38%).

In Gozo, the only region corresponding to an electoral district, the PN is leading Labour by nine points. This is particularly significant in view of Labour gains in this district in the last three general elections.

However, the survey finds that support for Labour remains solid in the South-eastern region, where the party commands an absolute majority of 53% and has a 33-point lead over the PN, which barely scrapes the 20% mark in this district.

Labour’s lead decreases to 11 points in the South Harbour region, which includes Labour’s Cottonera strongholds and nearby towns. Significantly, this region also registers the highest abstention rate (30%). In contrast, the lowest abstention rate is registered in the PN-leaning Northern region (19%).

ADPD registers its best score in the Western region (9%), which includes Żebbuġ, a locality which recently elected its first independent mayor, and Attard, where the Greens are represented on the local council.

Other small parties peak in the South Harbour region, where they attract the support of 6.2% of the electorate.

PN leads among young voters

The PN leads by 4.5 points among young voters

The survey shows the PN leading by 4.5 points among 16- to 35-year-olds and by nine points among those aged between 51 and 65. However, the two big parties are running neck and neck among both 36- to 50-year-olds, where the PN leads by less than a point, and among over-65-year-olds, where the PL is leading by less than half a point.

Abstention peaks among younger voters. The results show that 34% of 16- to 35-year-olds will not vote, dropping to 31% among 36- to 50-year-olds and 20% among 51- to 65-year-olds. Among pensioners, abstention declines to just 13%.

Support for third parties also peaks among 16- to 35-year-olds, where nearly a tenth intend to vote for ADPD (5%) or another small party (4%).

The survey also finds the PN making inroads among respondents who did not attend university but followed post-secondary education, a category that leaned towards Labour in the past decade. In this strategic category, where 28% intend to abstain, the PN is leading by five points.

The PN’s lead is more solid among the tertiary-educated, where the party commands the support of 46%, in contrast to Labour’s abysmal 19%. However, in an indication that Labour still enjoys widespread working-class support, the party leads by five points among those with a secondary level of education. Moreover, among those with a primary level of education – a category mostly composed of older respondents with a low level of education – support for Labour peaks at 61%.

TRUST BAROMETER: Abela leads Grech by 16 points

Prime Minister Robert Abela is trusted by 42.6% to run the country, a 16-point lead over Bernard Grech (Photo: James Bianchi/MaltaToday)

Prime Minister Robert Abela is still significantly more trusted to run the country than Opposition leader Bernard Grech despite the Labour Party trailing in the polls by four points.

The MaltaToday Trust Barometer shows that Abela is trusted by 42.6%, while Grech’s rating stands at 26.6%. The results show that 30.7% trust neither of the two political leaders.

From this survey, MaltaToday has amended its standard Trust Barometer question to ask who respondents trust more to run the country rather than the previous question that simply asked whom they trusted more between the two leaders.

In the last survey held at the beginning of June, on the eve of the MEP election, Abela had a generic trust rating of 37.6% and a lead of 12 points over Grech. This suggests that Abela’s trust advantage increases when voters are presented with a stark choice about who they trust most in a position of power.

However, Grech’s poor trust rating is not deterring a sizable number of voters who trust neither of the two leaders from voting for the Opposition in a forthcoming general election. Grech is only trusted by 67% of his current voters, 30% of whom trust neither leader. This stands in sharp contrast to Abela’s 97% rating among current Labour voters.

Interestingly, nearly 4% of current PN voters trust Abela more than Grech to run the country but still intend to vote PN. In contrast, only 2% of current PL voters trust Grech more than their party leader.

What is definitely bad news for the Nationalists is Grech’s extremely low standing among current non-voters – a strategic category where the PN needs to make inroads to secure victory in the next general election. In this sizable category, which includes nearly one in every four voters, only 4% trust Grech to run the country, while 34% trust Abela. This suggests that Labour has more room to grow in this vital category than the PN does.

Abela leads Grech in all Maltese regions

Abela's trust rating is highest across all regions

Despite Labour trailing the PN in four out of six regions, Abela leads Grech in all regions. However, his lead over Grech ranges from 45 points in the South-Eastern region to just 3.6 points in Gozo and 3.3 points in the North Harbour region.

While the Prime Minister’s trust rating peaks in the South-Eastern region, where he is trusted by a staggering 61% of respondents, Grech’s popularity peaks in Gozo, where he is trusted by 33%.

The highest percentage of voters who trust neither of the two leaders is found in the North Harbour region, where 31% trust neither Grech nor Abela to run the country, followed by the Western region, where 30% trust neither leader.

Young people shun Grech

Despite the PN's success among young people, Grech's trust rating crashes among these voters

Both leaders are least trusted among 16- to 35-year-olds. However, in this age group, Abela is trusted by 39% of voters, while Grech is only trusted by 13%. Despite Grech’s poor trust rating, 31% of young voters will still vote PN. Grech’s trust rating improves with age, rising to 19% among 36- to 50-year-olds and to 35% among those over 65. Abela’s trust rating also increases with age, from 38% among 16- to 35-year-olds to 46% among those over 65.

The only category of voters where Grech is more trusted is among tertiary-educated voters, where he enjoys a five-point lead over Abela. However, in this category, 45% trust neither of the two leaders. But Abela is definitively more trusted than Grech among those with a post-secondary level of education, amongst which Abela is even more popular than his own party. While only 29% of voters in this category will be voting Labour, Abela is seen as the most trusted leader by nearly 42%. This suggests that although the PL is trailing the PN by five points, the PL has more room to grow in this category of voters.

Abela enjoys an even higher trust rating among those with a secondary level of education (50%) and those with a primary level of education (70.5%).

GOV. PERFORMANCE BAROMETER: Abela's administration scores 2.6 out of 5

Abela's administration scores 2.6, a slight improvement over May

Despite the Labour Party trailing the PN in the polls, the performance of the government led by Robert Abela is still perceived as satisfactory by a majority of respondents.

The Government Performance Barometer gives the administration a score of 2.6 out of 5, a slight improvement since May.

Respondents were asked to rate the government led by Robert Abela on a scale from 0 (very negative) to 5 (very positive). This resulted in an average score of 2.6, slightly above the pass mark.

Moreover, 61.3% of respondents gave the government a rating of 3 points or more, while only 38.7% rated the government at 2 points or lower.

Not surprisingly, the government received its lowest score (1.8) among current PN voters and its highest score among current PL voters (3.8). Among the current group of non-voters, the government was rated at 2.4.

A breakdown by age shows that the government is viewed most favourably by those aged over 65 and those under 35, both giving it a rating of 2.7. The government is judged most unfavourably by respondents in the 51- to 65-year-old bracket, who rate it at 2.4.

Regionally, the government received its highest rating in the country’s South-Eastern region (3.1), followed by Gozo (2.7), and its lowest rating in the Northern region (2.4).

The government’s relatively high score in Gozo is particularly significant given the PL’s declining fortunes in the region, where it has been overtaken by the PN in the latest survey.

A breakdown by education shows the government receiving its lowest rating among the tertiary educated (2.4), followed by the post-secondary educated (2.5). Its highest ratings come from the secondary educated (2.7) and those with a primary level of education (3.3).

Women, who gave the government a score of 2.7, are also more positive than men, who gave the government an average performance rating of 2.5.