MaltaToday survey and trust barometer | Muscat widens trust lead over Gonzi

The aftermath of John Dalli's controversial resignation from EU Commissioner and the parliamentary skirmishes over the lease of St Philip's Hospital from former PN President Frank Portelli have not altered the political landscape, with both major parties seeing a small one-point drop in support, amid a small three-point increase in undecided voters.

A MaltaToday poll among 500 respondents conducted between Monday and Thursday confirms the 10-point swing from the PN to the PL registered in surveys held in the past three months.

The only change registered in the latest survey is a widening in the trust gap between the leaders of the two major parties. While in September Muscat enjoyed an 11-point lead over Gonzi, Muscat now enjoys a 15-point lead.  

Moreover while Gonzi is only two points more popular than his own party, Muscat enjoys a trust rating which is five points higher than support for the PL.

This could be an important consideration made by PN strategists deliberating on the choice of Tonio Borg's replacement as PN deputy leader when he becomes EU commissioner. 

This vacancy has given the PN the golden opportunity to address Muscat's trust lead by electing a new deputy leader who compensates for Gonzi's trust deficit.

One interesting factor is that 13% of those who prefer Muscat to Gonzi are still undecided who to vote for in the next general election and 1% would even vote for the PN. 

On the other hand only 8% of those who prefer Gonzi to Muscat are still undecided while 3% will be voting for AD.

While the PN has failed to arrest the haemorrhage losing 11% of its 2008 voters to Labour and 2% to AD, it has significantly reduced the percentage of its 2008 voters who now intend not to vote from 12% in July to 7% now.

In this survey Labour only loses 1.5% of its 2008 to the PN and none to AD.  But the survey shows a four-point increase in Labour voters in 2008 who are now undecided. 

Methodology

The survey was held between Monday 22 October and Thursday 25 October. A total of 736 respondents were randomly chosen from telephone directories and contacted by telephone. Of these 500 accepted to participate in the survey. Results were weighed to reflect the age and sex balance of population. The survey has a margin of error of /-4.4%.