Saturday election outcome hinges on the ‘undecided’

Surveys published during the weekend confirm that a majority of decided voters are opting for the PL but all surveys contain a high percentage of undecided or no replies, ranging from MaltaToday’s 19% to the Sunday Times’s 29.5%. 

This means that the outcome of the election depends on how voters who claim to be undecided will be voting.

Once again surveys concur on Labour’s vote percentage (which ranges from 38.4% in the Sunday Times survey to 41.1% in the MaltaToday survey) but disagree on the PN’s percentage (which ranges from 28.3% in the Sunday Times to 36.9% in MaltaToday).

The Sunday Times survey warns that the results of the survey must be seen in the light of a previous question asking respondents to name the party they had voted for in 2013, where the result differed “very significantly” from the actual result and the PN vote was highly understated.  

MaltaToday’s sample included 48.3% of respondents reported voting PL and 37.8% reported voting PN, which tallies with the vote difference between the two parties in 2013.  

For the first time both the Torca and MaltaToday surveys concur in showing a shift from the PL to the PN. Both surveys show 6% of Labour’s 2013 voters shifting to the PN. In real terms this would mean the PN gaining between 9,381 votes (Torca) and 10,555 votes (MaltaToday).  

While the Torca survey shows the PN losing 3.6% of its 2013 vote to Labour, MaltaToday shows the PN losing 3.3%.  This would mean that the PN is losing between 4,370 votes (MaltaToday) and 4,767 votes (Torca) to the PL. 

In the Sunday Times survey respondents were also asked whether they regretted the way they had voted in the 2013 election, and 12 per cent said yes. Of those who stated that they regret the way they voted in 2013, 50 per cent mentioned the Nationalist Party as being best for the country, 34 per cent mentioned the Labour Party and 16 per cent did not state an opinion, or said neither of them.