Xarabank divorce survey: 40% undecided

The outcome is rendered even more uncertain due to an overwhelming 40% of respondents who are still undecided two weeks before the referendum.

Conducted in the week of 9-14 May, a week after the last MaltaToday survey which showed the no camp enjoying a very slight lead, the Xarabank survey shows the yes camp recovering the lead.

Similarly to MaltaToday surveys showing a sharp drop in the yes vote from 58% in July last year, to 36% in the most recent survey, the Xarabank survey shows the yes vote decreasing from 56% in October to just 28% now.

A survey conducted by newspaper Torca on the same week as the Xarabank survey also showed the race as being too close to call – showing nearly perfect parity between the yes and no camps.

What is most striking about the Xarabank survey is the very large number of undecided respondents which total 40%, 17 percentage points more than in a MaltaToday survey held the previous week and more than double the amount of ‘don’t knows’ in a Torca survey held over the same week.

Similarly to surveys by MaltaToday, the Xarabank survey confirms a gender divide: a pro-divorce majority among men and an anti-divorce majority among women.

In both surveys men are more decided than women on how they will vote. Compared to a Xarabank survey in October 2010, amongst both sexes there was a significant drop amongst those who intend voting yes.

But the percentage of women who intend voting no did not change significantly since October 2010.

Both the MaltaToday and Xarabank surveys show that only 10% of Labour voters intend to vote against divorce.

While the MaltaToday survey shows 20% of PN voters voting yes, the percentage rises to 24% in the Xarabank survey.

The Xarabank survey shows that the more people attend mass, the more they are against the introduction of divorce, with the voters who attend mass daily having an absolute majority of 60.9% against. Conversely 52.9% of the voters who never attend mass are in favour of divorce.

A survey conducted between 12 May and 18 May – a week after the Xarabank survey published today – will be published in next Sunday’s issue of MaltaToday.