Fear factor gives NO camp a final push
Polls separately conducted by MISCO and the Malta Labour Party are showing a late but consistent swing in favour of the no camp in the final days of the campaign.
Although the result remains too close to call, these polls appear have increased the likelihood of a no victory.
The latest published polls by MaltaToday and the Sunday Times last Sunday indicated that up until last week, the Yes was leading the No camp by 7 to 8 percentage points.
This suggested a recovery by the Yes camp over the previous two weeks, following major No gains after Easter: when the Yes vote plummeted from 52% before the campaign, to just 36% in the first week of May. Over te same period the No edged ahead with a minimal advantage.
But both surveys published last Sunday indicated that the result was too close to call due to the fact that 20% of respondents were still undecided.
This newspaper is informed that separate surveys conducted on Monday both show a reversal of this trend.
Surveys conducted both MISCO and the Malta Labour Party on a daily basis are showing the No campaign garnering support among previously undecided voters.
This swing comes at a time when the No camp mounted an aggressive offensive aimed at undecided female voters, a category identified by previous surveys as likelier to vote No.
During the past days the anti-divorce campaign has appealed to the insecurities of middle aged female voters concerned about alimony, while mounting a bill board campaign which exploits to the full the emotional baggage associated with the suffering of children due to marital breakdown.
Added to this was a carefully scripted pastoral letter by the Archbishops which avoided threatening believers with sin – a tactic which seems to have backfired – while making the Church’s stance against divorce clear.
The No camp is also banking on a strong showing in Gozo, which could make up for its unpopularity with younger voters in Malta. It was no coincidence that last Sunday, the Zwieg Bla Divorzju movement chose Gozo as the location for its public activities.
The No camp is also banking on the support of residents in old people’s homes, who are not accounted for in surveys.
MaltaToday will be publishing its final survey results on its portal