[SURVEY] Yes vote ahead by a whisker

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A MaltaToday survey held between Thursday 18 May and Wednesday 25 May among 925 respondents shows the yes campaign leading the no campaign by a sheer 3 percentage points, down from 8 percentage points from the previous week.

This is a clear indication that the outcome of the referendum will depend on the ability of both sides to mobilise voters next Saturday.

The difference between the two camps falls within the survey’s margin of error, in a clear indication that the referendum is too close to call, especially in view that 24% are still undecided.

The yes losses in the latest survey come in the wake of a 4 percentage-point increase in undecided voters, a possible indication that in just a few days before the referendum, respondents are becoming more secretive on their voting intentions. The increase in undecided is sharper among Labour voters, where the yes camp surprisingly suffers from a 9-point loss.

The fall in yes support among Labour voters comes despite repeated appeals by Labour leader Joseph Muscat for a yes vote.

The survey also reveals that if the result remains close, Gozo – where the no camp is heading towards a scathing victory – could have a key role in determining the result.

But despite the yes losses, the survey only registers a very slight increase in the no vote. While the no camp has managed to hold its grip on over 35-year-old female voters, it made strategic gains among over 55-year-old males as well as 18 to 34-year-olds.

The political divide

The final week sees the no vote recovering some ground among Labour voters as the yes vote among this category falls by 9 points while the no camp gained 3 points.

The decrease in yes can be mostly attributed to a 6-point increase among the undecided and non-voters. The increase in undecided a few days before the referendum could be an indication that a greater number of Labour voters are not revealing their intentions.

It could also be an indication that with their party leader firmly in favour of divorce, some Labour voters prefer to abstain in the referendum rather than vote against.

While the surveys shows a decline in the yes vote among Labour voters, the survey shows the situation being more stable among Nationalist voters.

Overall the survey confirms the political rift on this issue, with 62% of Nationalists intending to vote no and 63% of Labourites intending to vote yes.

A regional divide

The survey shows that the yes vote is strongest in the Nationalist-leaning eight, ninth and tenth districts (which include urban centres like Birkirkara, Sliema and San Gwann) where 39% intend to vote divorce; and weakest in equally Nationalist-leaning districts and the more rural Gozo where only 26% intend to vote yes.

Gozo also registers the highest number of yes voters (49%) and the lowest number of undecided (18%).

The yes campaign is equally strong in the Nationalist-leaning eleventh and twelfth districts (which include St Paul’s Bay, Naxxar, Mosta and Attard) and the Labour leaning third, fourth and fifth districts (which include Marsaskala, Zejtun and Fgura).

Both district groupings also boast the highest number of undecided voters.

Surprisingly the No camp enjoys a slight lead over the yes camp in first and second districts which include Labour-leaning Cottonera. as well as the more evenly split Valletta and Hamrun.

On the other hand the yes camp enjoys a very slight lead in the sixth and seventh districts which include Qormi, Siggiewi and Jeffrey Pullicino Orlando’s hometown Zebbug.

All in all the survey suggests a demographic split between pro divorce men, young people, Labourites and urbanites and anti divorce women, the elderly, Nationalists and Gozitans.

The gender divide

The survey confirms the gender divide between pro divorce men and anti divorce women, already present in previous surveys.

Surprisingly despite the focus of the no campaign on undecided women, the survey shows the yes-camp losing 7 points among male voters and only 3 points among female voters. 

Overall the no vote leads by 4 points among women while the yes camp enjoys a 10 point lead among males.  

Moreover women remain more undecided than males even if the number of undecided males has increased by 6 points over last week.

While women over 55 remain the age group most opposed to divorce, the survey shows a shift among over 55 year old males where the no vote has increase by 9 points in the past week.

The age factor

Divorce remains more popular among those aged less than 35 years old and least popular among those aged over 55.  18 to 34 years old are now the most undecided.

Over the past two weeks the sharpest decrease in support for divorce occurred among those aged between 18 to 34, where the yes lost 6 percentage points and the no campaign has won 2 points. But the yes still enjoys a commanding lead in this age group.

The yes enjoys a relative majority among men aged between 18 and 55 and women aged between 18 to 34. On the other hand the no camp enjoys an advantage among women aged over 34 and men aged over 55.

In all age groups women are less likely to support divorce. The only female age group to register a relative majority (44%) for divorce are those aged between 18 and 34. 

Methodology

The survey was conducted between Thursday 19 and Wednesday 25 May. A total of 1251 telephone contacts were made of which 925 accepted to participate.  The survey which was time barred was stopped on Wednesday evening. Participants were chosen from the on-line and printed versions of the directory.  The survey has a margin of error of +/-3.2%. District results have a higher margin of error ranging from +/-10% to +/-7%. The results were weighed to reflect the age and sex balance of the population as listed in the NSO’s 2009 demographic review. Only respondents who have celebrated their 18th birthday before October 2010 were allowed to participate in the survey.