Gonzi 'likely to play for time on divorce' - Economist Intelligence Unit report

A recently published report by the Economist Intelligence Unit’s notes that Jeffrey Pullicino Orlando’s bill has reignited tensions within the PN following a period of relative calm.

The divorce issue remains extremely sensitive to the PN, “a party which has embraced core Catholic values, with the prime minister, Lawrence Gonzi, a former president of the Catholic Action movement”, the report says.

But EIU report refers to the declining influence of the church and opinion polls suggesting “that a majority of voters are in favour of the introduction of divorce.”

The Economist Intelligence Unit, a division of London’s Economist Group, is one of the most respected provider of country analysis for governments. EIU reports are normally written by local correspondents. Past authors included former Labour president Mario Vella, a confidant of present Labour leader Joseph Muscat, and former Labour party leader Alfred Sant.

The report ignores a Times of Malta survey, showing that an anti-divorce majority. Only the latest MaltaToday survey showed that 58% would support divorce if this is only introduced for couples who have lived apart for at least four of the preceding five years, as proposed in the Pullicino Orlando bill.

The report notes that while most PL supporters would back the move, PN voters are split on the issue.

According to the EIU, Jeffrey Pullicino Orlando’s bill has “reignited tensions” within the PN following a period of relative calm. Due to the fragility of Gonzi’s one-seat majority government, the report considers it extremely unlikely for Gonzi to hold a referendum on divorce before the election due to his fragile majority.

“Mr Gonzi is therefore unlikely to want to hold a referendum before the next election at the earliest and may well try to play for time – possibly pledging as part of his party’s electoral campaign to hold a referendum in the next parliament”.

However, events could overtake Gonzi as Pullicino Orlando has indicated that he is prepared to wait six months while the issue is debated, but that he will move in January 2011 to pilot the bill through parliament.

The report makes no reference to the fact that surveys have also shown widespread support for a referendum on divorce: what could be the Prime Minister’s saving grace in his attempt to reconcile the liberal and conservative wings of his party. Neither does it refer to Labour’s reluctance to commit itself on divorce in its forthcoming manifesto.