MaltaToday Survey | Undecided voters balloon, gap narrows to 26,000

The Labour Party leads at the polls with an eight-point gap over the Nationalist Party, a one-point decline over seven days, MaltaToday’s rolling survey shows.

At the end of the third week of the electoral campaign the PL registers 53.2% support and the PN 44.8%. Third parties collectively have 2% support.

The extrapolated result puts the gap between the two major parties at 25,996 votes, down from 27,265 last Sunday. The gap in the 2017 election stood at 35,000.

The results are based on an expected share of valid votes that equates to 86.6% of eligible voters. This represents almost a one-point increase since last Sunday.

The expected share of valid votes is not the turn out figure but rather the basis on which an election is determined – valid votes cast.

In the 2017 election, the turnout was 92.1% and the share of valid votes cast stood at 90.9%.

MaltaToday’s rolling survey continues to project a higher abstention rate than the last general election.

The past seven days have seen the PN’s daily share of the vote plateauing at 44.8%, while the PL’s share has experienced more fluctuations around the 53% mark.

All changes remain well within the margin of error.

Age and region

The raw data shows the PL beating the PN across all age groups, among men and women and in three out of the six regions.

Among young voters aged between 16 and 35, the PL’s support stands at 29.8% and that of the PN’s at 25%. Among pensioners, both parties score their best results with the PL enjoying the support of 45% and the PN at 37.7%.

For the second Sunday running the geographical data paints a more balanced picture than the trust barometer where PN leader Bernard Grech only beats PL leader Robert Abela in one region.

The PL wins in Gozo, the South-Eastern and Southern Harbour regions, while the PN captures the Northern, Northern Harbour and the Western regions.

Shifts and abstentions

The PL loses 3.7% of its 2017 support to the PN, while the Opposition loses 2.9% of its 2017 electoral share to Labour. These shifts result in a net movement of 2,400 votes from the PL to the PN.

There are also 5.2% of PL voters who say they will not vote, equivalent to just under 9,000 votes, and 6% of Nationalist voters, equivalent to just over 8,000 votes, who are abstaining.

Of significance is the cohort of voters who are undecided. In our projected result, it is assumed that undecided voters will vote according to their 2017 preference but the PN appears to have more undecided voters within its ranks than Labour.

The survey shows that 20.4% of 2017 PN voters, equivalent to almost 27,700 votes, are undecided. The equivalent share of undecided PL voters stands at 14.6% or just under 25,000.

It remains to be seen whether undecided voters will fall in line with past voting preferences as we are assuming, shift their vote or even stay at home on election day.

Among new voters, the share of undecided has shot up to 40.8% from 34.4% a week ago. Support for the PL among new voters stands at 23% as opposed to the PN’s 19.7%.

New voters are excluded from the extrapolated result because they do not have a past voting record to base our assumption on. However, it appears that the PL continues to enjoy the edge over its rival among this cohort of voters that includes 16-year-olds.

Abela’s trust lead grows to 14 points

Robert Abela ends the third week of the electoral campaign with a trust rating of 43.9% in MaltaToday’s rolling survey, while Bernard Grech scores 29.8%.

The result represents a one-point increase since last Sunday in the gap between the leaders, which now stands at 14 points.

The Labour leader is trusted more than the Nationalist leader across all age groups, among men and women, and in all regions bar one.

The survey has been building up its sample size on a daily basis, ensuring that daily polling reflects the country’s demographics and past voting patterns. By Friday at 8pm, 1,811 people were polled since Monday, 21 February.

36 to 50 most distrustful

Abela’s strongest performance remains among middle-aged voters, where he is trusted by 49.9%, followed by pensioners at 48.5%.

Grech’s strongest performance is among pensioners where he scores 39.4%, followed by middle-aged voters at 30.3%.

Among young voters aged between 16 and 35, the PL leader has a trust rating of 38.8% as opposed to Grech’s 25.6%. However, 26.6% of people in this age cohort trust no one.

The most distrustful group remains the 36-50 age cohort, where 30.1% trust none of the two leaders. Within this group, Abela enjoys a trust rating of 39.4% against Grech’s 23.7%.

Abela’s regional performance better than party’s

On a geographical basis, Grech continues to beat Abela in the Northern region, albeit with an extremely slim lead. This region is made up of Għargħur, Mellieħa, Mġarr, Mosta, Naxxar and St Paul’s Bay.

Grech scores 33.4%, while Abela registers 33.1%.

But elsewhere, the PN leader trails Abela with the most significant margins recorded in the south and east of the country.

In the Northern Harbour region, Abela scores 38.9% against Grech’s 37.9%, while in the Western region the Prime Minister’s trust stands at 36.1% against Grech’s 35.1%.

In the South-Eastern region, the PL leader scores a trust rating of 56.3%, while Grech continues to register his worst performance at 16.2%.

This region is composed of Żejtun, Birżebbuġa, Gudja, Għaxaq, Kirkop, Marsaskala, Marsaxlokk, Mqabba, Qrendi, Safi and Żurrieq, which correspond to the 3rd and 5th electoral districts that are Labour strongholds.

In the Southern Harbour region, Abela scores his best performance at 57.7% against Grech’s 23.%. This region is made up of Valletta, Vittoriosa, Isla, Bormla, Żabbar, Fgura, Floriana, Kalkara, Luqa, Marsa, Paola, St Luċija, Tarxien and Xgħajra. This region largely conforms to the 2nd and 4th electoral districts, which are also Labour strongholds.

In Gozo, Abela enjoys the trust of 44.4% against Grech’s 29.4%.

Among those who are saying they will vote PL in the 26 March election, Abela enjoys the trust of 97.7%, while Grech enjoys the trust of 90.3% of those who will vote PN.

But 7.1% of prospective PN voters say they trust no one as opposed to 1.1% of prospective Labour voters.

Methodology

The survey is the cumulative data set carried out between Monday 21 February 2022 and Friday 11 March 2022. 1,811 respondents opted to complete the survey. Stratified random sampling based on region, age and gender was used to replicate the Maltese demographic. The estimated margin of error is 2.3% for a confidence interval of 95% for the overall results. Demographic and sub-group breakdowns have significantly larger margins of error.