District breakdown, 5-9: Battle of the leaders in the south

District 5: The battle of the leaders

The Labour party has seen its vote share in the district of Birżebbuga, Kirkop, Mqabba, Ħal Farruġ, Qrendi, Safi, Mqabba and Żurrieq, expand from 61% in 2003 to 66% in 2017. But in the last election, the party still failed to clinch a fourth seat in this district by just 186.

By deciding to contest the fifth district instead of playing home in the sixth ‘Qormi’ district, Robert Abela could be aiming at regaining the fourth seat which the party had won in 2013 when its list included district heavyweight Karmenu Vella.

Abela could also be aiming at hitting two birds with one stone: humiliating the Opposition leader who will also contest this district, and also surpass Joseph Muscat’s 12,886 first-count votes in 2017. But in so doing he is taking a gamble, especially if Grech manages to close the gap in this district denying Labour a fourth seat.

And by contesting this district, Abela has complicated the life of a number of Cabinet members contesting on the district.

This is because four sitting cabinet members – Miriam Dalli, Julia Farrugia Portelli, Owen Bonnici, and Stefan Zrinzo Azzopardi – are also vying for a seat.

This means that if Labour only elects three seats, the fate of one or two Labour ministers could be in jeopardy. Abela may still leave a window open for those left out from the contest if he chooses to keep his 2nd District seat, as this would trigger a casual election.

While energy minister Miriam Dalli, whose father-in-law Karmenu Vella was a district strongman, is best poised to clinch second place by contesting the district, Abela has denied her the opportunity of registering a strong showing which could establish her as one of Labour’s strongest candidates.

For Bernard Grech this is also bound to be a challenge. By taking the risk of playing ‘away’ in a Labour district Grech may be putting the party before his own personal pride. For while the district includes his hometown B’Bugia, he will be contesting a district where only one third vote for his party. His goal in doing so must be that of retaining an endangered second seat for the party.

Toni Bezzina looks best poised to win the second seat. Up for grabs this time round are the 1,143 votes gained by Hermann Schiavone, who will not be contesting this time around. Apart from Bezzina, the PN is presenting a list made of new candidates like Francine Farrugia, Stefan Caruana, and Owen Sciberras all new candidates. Stanley Zammit who gained 626 votes in 2017 is also contesting.

It also remains to be seen whether the party will retain the 821 votes gained by former PD leader Marlene Farrugia who had contested on the PN list in 2017 but will not be contesting again.

Securing all these votes is vital for the PN to win a second seat but considering that Farrugia, had her own personal following even among traditional Labour voters, securing these votes will not be automatic.

District 6: All eyes on Rosianne

Will voters return Rosianne Cutajar to parliament despite being reproached by the Standards Commissioner for her involvement in a property deal with murder suspect and 17 Black owner Yorgen Fenech?

This is one of the questions facing voters in the strategic sixth district which includes Qormi, Luqa and Siggiewi, where Labour has seen its vote share increase from 55% in 2003 to 59% in 2017. It also remains to be seen whether the trend of increased Labour dominance in this once competitive district will continue or not.

Up for grabs in this district are the 3,403 first count votes clinched by Robert Abela in a district which includes hometown Qormi. Apart from Cutajar, whose candidature has been endorsed by former Labour leader Joseph Muscat, the district is also contested by Transport Minister Ian Borg, who was not elected on this district in 2017, and Housing Minister Roderick Galdes.

Not contesting on the PN’s side is Clyde Puli – a long-time MP and former mayor of the town who gained 2,556 first count votes in 2017. Ryan Callus, whose stature in the party has grown under Bernard Grech, is expected to retain his seat.

Qormi councillor Jerome Caruana Cilia, given much prominence on the PN media, is also expected to do well. It also remains to be seen whether the PN will secure all the 494 first-count votes gained by former Labour Minister Godfrey Farrugia who contested on a PN ticket in the 2017 election.

District 7: The battle in Ian Borg’s constituency

The seventh district of Dingli, Mġarrr, Imtarfa, Rabat, Żebbuġ was one of the battle ground districts won by the PN in 2003 and where Labour barely scraped the 50% mark in 2008.

But Labour’s dominance became more pronounced in 2013 and 2017 when the party won over 56% of the vote.

Labour’s ticket includes four cabinet ministers namely Ian Borg, Aaron Farrugia, Julia Farrugia Portelli and Silvio Schembri. Borg, who hails from Dingli, starts as a frontrunner in a district from which he was elected by 5,566 votes in 2017.

Also contesting is the popular Zebbug mayor Malcolm Agius Galea, a close ally of Robert Abela who may be in the running through a casual election in case of a bye-election.

On the PN side, Beppe Fenech Adami who gained 2,195 votes in 2017 will not be contesting on this district, having been moved to the ninth district at the last minute. Also missing is Godfrey Farrugia a popular former Labour minister and independent mayor of Zebbug who contested on the PN ticket in 2017. Securing Farrugia’s votes is vital for the PN to retain its 2017 vote tally.

Former Adrian Delia is the most prominent candidate to be contesting on the PN side. While Delia is probably stronger on the eighth district, getting elected on two districts will strengthen the former party leader who may still have ambitions of his own. Labour’s former Rabat mayor Charles Azzopardi is the most recognisable new candidate on the PN ballot sheet.

District 8: The clash of the PN titans

The PN-leaning eight district which includes Birkirkara has become more competitive with Labour seeing its share increasing from 37% in 2003 to 41% in 2008 and to 48% in 2013 when Labour clinched a historical third seat. But despite a favourable national trend, Labour still saw its vote shrink to 45% in 2017 and the PN regaining its third seat.

In that election Beppe Fenech Adami led the PN pack securing 6,484 votes followed by Therese Commodini Cachia with 1,523 votes. This time around Commodini Cachia will not be contesting. But the party is fielding its former leader Adrian Delia in a direct clash with Fenech Adami, who was also one of the MPs who pushed for Delia’s removal. Also contesting the district is PN Deputy leader David Agius who was also elected from the district in 2017.

The PN’s crowded field also includes Alex Perici Calascione, a leadership contestant in 2017, the PN’s minority leader on the Birkirkara local council Justin Schembri, and Eurovision singer Julie Zahra, who was given prominence in the party’s media during the campaign itself.

On the PL’s side, both Edward Scicluna and Chris Cardona will not be recontesting, and neither will Ian Castaldi Paris – who replaced Cardona through a casual election. Clyde Caruana’s visibility as a finance minister and a close ally of the Prime Minister inevitably turns him into a frontrunner. He may also be Labour’s winning card among M.O.R. voters thanks to his sobriety and frankness.

Edward Zammit Lewis, who was elected in a casual election in 2017 and whose reputation was bruised by leaked chats with Yorgen Fenech in which he described Labour voters as fools (“gaħan”) may be in jeopardy as he faces strong competition from Tourism Minister Clayton Bartolo, Housing Minister Roderick Galdes, and parliamentary secretary Alex Muscat.

District 9 – The PN’s crowded field

Elected in 2017

Clifton Grima, Michael Falzon (PL); Kristy Debono, Robert Arrigo, Marthese Portelli (PN) – Casual election: Manuel Mallia (PL), Ivan J. Bartolo (PN)

No earthquakes are expected on a district in which the PN won with a comfortable 56% margin in 2017, which represented a 2 point increase for the party over 2013.

Comprising Għarghur, Msida, San Ġwann, Swieqi and Ta’ Xbiex, the ninth district will see a crowded field of PN candidates competing for three seats.

The PN has lost Kristy Debono who emerged as the party’s frontrunner with over 4,000 first-count votes in 2017. Marthese Portelli, elected in the 2017 election, will also not be contesting this election after she resigned from parliament. Portelli was replaced by Ivan Bartolo, who vacated his seat in 2020 to make way for Bernard Grech.

Deputy leader Robert Arrigo was the PN’s final candidate elected on the district in 2017.

This time around the ninth district will see a contest between four lawyers: Jason Azzopardi, Beppe Fenech Adami, Karol Aquilina and newcomer Joe Giglio.

Jason Azzopardi and Karol Aquilina, who are both associated with the anti-Delia faction of the party and the party’s battle against corruption, will be contesting this district for the first time. This could be an indication that both candidates are placing their hopes in districts which are more receptive to rule of law issues.

Three popular PN mayors, namely Sliema mayor Graziella Attard Previ, St Julian’s mayor Albert Buttigieg and Swieqi mayor Noel Muscat, will also be contested. The crowded PN field also includes incumbent MP Karl Gouder.

Also contesting are newcomers Graham Bencini, 18-year-old candidate Eve Borg Bonello, and Emma Portelli Bonnici, who stands out as one of the most liberal candidates contesting with the PN.

On Labour’s side, four cabinet member, namely Michael Falzon, Clifton Grima, Edward Zammit Lewis and Stefan Zrinzo Azzpardi are contesting along with promising newcomer Rebecca Buttigieg.