Labour reaches last day of electoral campaign with nine-point lead

The Labour Party is ahead of the Nationalist Party with almost nine points as the electoral campaign comes to a close today, MaltaToday’s rolling survey shows.

The accumulated results as at 8pm on Wednesday 23 March, showed the Labour Party with 53.3%, unchanged from the previous day, and the PN at 44.7%, an increase of 0.1 points over Tuesday. Third parties collectively registered 2%, a decrease of 0.1 points. The PL leads the PN by 26,798 votes.

All changes remained statistically insignificant since they were well within the margin of error, which stood at 1.8% on a sample base of 2,887.

The results have remained within a constant range for the length of the electoral campaign with minimal variations registered.

Malta Today’s rolling survey continued to project a lower turnout than the last general election.

The share of valid votes stood at 87.1% on Wednesday, unchanged from the previous day. This was the first day since 14 March that the share of valid votes stopped its marginal upward trend, remaining unchanged over a 24-hour period.

In the 2017 election, while 92.1% of eligible voters went out to vote, only 90.9% of eligible voters cast a valid vote. MaltaToday’s survey is showing a decline of almost four points in valid votes cast.

The trust barometer showed Robert Abela with a trust score of 44.1%, unchanged from the previous day. Bernard Grech registered a score of 31.1%, an upward movement of 0.2 points for the second consecutive day. The trust gap stood at 13 points.

The share of those who trust none of the two leaders or are unsure was 24.8%.

What we do

A base survey with a sample size of 597 was released on Sunday 27 February. This survey was continuously adjourned every day. The latest data set includes a sample gathered between 21 February and 23 March.

The daily tallies boosted the sample size and enabled us to re-calculate the data on progressively larger samples.

Care was taken to ensure that daily samples are as representative as they can be of the general population, reflecting gender, age, regional distribution and past voting patterns.

The results based on the accumulated tally comprising the previous day’s results were published between Tuesday and Friday at 8:30am on the MaltaToday home page.

The last survey comprising the data for the last day of the campaign will be released on maltatoday.com.mt on Thursday at 10pm.