[ANALYSIS] From GonziPN to SimonPN?

Lagging 12 points behind Labour in the polls and with his trust ratings dented, Lawrence Gonzi has changed the political landscape by playing three consecutive chess moves triggered by the resignation of EU commissioner and former leadership rival; John Dalli.

Videography: Ray Attard/Mediatoday

His first strategic move was nominating deputy leader Tonio Borg as Dalli's replacement - a questionable choice considering the risk of not seeing the nomination approved by the EU parliament due to Borg's conservative views on moral and ethical issues. Ultimately the strategy paid off as Borg was approved by a slim majority of MEPs.

His second strategic move was the inauguration of a contest to replace Tonio Borg, which saw Simon Busuttil accepting the poisoned chalice of standing for election despite the dismal prospects of his party winning the next election.

Gonzi's third strategic move was to openly call on his front benchers to contest against Simon Busuttil thus avoiding the replica of last February one-horse leadership race, which saw Gonzi himself confirmed as leader without seeing any improvement in the polls. 

The move paid off too, as Gonzi's trusted Finance Minister presented a credible challenge to Busuttil, attracting the support of all cabinet ministers except Health Minister Joe Cassar who was the only minister to back Busuttil.

The two-horse contest ensured that Busuttil's elevation to the number two spot would not be seen as an anointment by Gonzi. In fact the Prime Minister kept himself aloof from the contest, while other senior cabinet members actively backed Fenech. 

Ironically the decision by cabinet members including Austin Gatt, to support Fenech against Busuttil now offers party strategists the opportunity to present Busuttil as an agent of change and discontinuity.  By supporting Fenech they played an important role in a script which required the hero to win an internal battle against the old guard, before proceeding to vanquish the enemy.

Therefore Gonzi's bold move to vacate the deputy leadership on the eve of a general election has paid off; the PN now has a leadership tandem, which offers the electorate the prospect of voting for change while still voting PN. This new formula concocted by party strategists effectively consigns GonziPN to the dustbin history but it still retains the same blueprint. For any concerted effort to promote the new leadership tandem and the open invitation to vote for change could once again eclipse the Ministers. The risk of this demoralising a cabinet, which is delivering on a number of fronts, on the eve of a crucial election.

History repeating itself?

Back in 2008 the PN was also trailing in the polls with Labour enjoying a 6 to 7 point advantage. But back than Lawrence Gonzi was still the party's best asset enjoying a higher trust rating than his rival Alfred Sant.   This suggested that while the cabinet and party were unpopular, Gonzi could still save the day for the PN.

It was for this reason that party strategists, including general secretary Joe Saliba, came up with the GonziPn strategy, which sidelined the ministers and openly invited Nationalist voters to vote for change while still voting PN. 

The result of this strategy was an improbable one seat majority for Gonzi and a resounding affirmation for backbenchers like Franco Debono, Jeffrey Pullicino Orlando and Robert Arrigo and the ousting of long standing party stalwarts like Louis Galea and a weakening of former ministers like Louis Deguara and Francis Zammit Dimech who scraped into parliament.

This time round the party cannot bank on Gonzi's popularity. In fact polls show Labour leader Joseph Muscat enjoying a higher trust rating than the Prime Minister. With the party lagging in the polls by 10-12 points, the party could not afford to counter Muscat's presidential campaign with GonziPn. Instead party strategists now seem to be banking on a leadership tandem where Simon Busuttil can be projected as an agent of change and thus serve as a magnet for disgruntled Nationalists while restoring enthusiasm among pale blue voters.

One serious obstacle to this strategy was the perception that Busuttilm already chosen by Lawrence Gonzi as his civil society envoy in February, represents continuity with the recent past of the party. In this sense, the support given by the cabinet including Austin Gatt to Tonio Fenech proved providential in undermining this perception and projecting Busuttil as the agent of change.

Still this strategy is risky for two reasons. First of all it risks demoralising the cabinet, which includes some of the party's most valuable assets both in terms of organisation and in terms of grass root support. It would also be a fatal mistake for the party not to bank on the popularity of the cabinet's rising stars, namely Mario De Marco and Chris Said who were groomed by Gonzi himself as parliamentary secretaries in his office.  Ironically while the pre 2008 cabinet was largely a spent force, the cabinet emerging from last year's reshuffle showed signs of dynamism, which the party cannot afford to sideline. 

Still, the organisation of a contest on the eve of the next election has put both Said and De Marco in a very uncomfortable position.  Had they contested they would have risked being trounced by Busuttil who was widely seen in the party as the only game changer in the present circumstances.

Now with Simon Busuttil elevated to the number two post, their future leadership aspirations depend on the party losing the next general election. They know that they could only see an opening for their ascent to the top spot if Busuttil ends up sharing the blame of the defeat with Gonzi. Still, both know that they cannot afford to be seen as spoilers and they would probably be still giving their best to prove their credentials as party stalwarts.

One scapegoat that could prove useful for the new deputy leader in his attempt to distance himself from the old guard is Austin Gatt himself, the least popular member of the cabinet.

In his first post election interview Busuttil banked on the Minister's unpopularity when declaring that while he had always worked well with Austin Gatt, he tends to end up disagreeing with him "after spending five minutes in the same room". 

While such statements may go down well with a segment of the electorate for whom Gatt embodies arrogance, it also risks depriving the party of the organisational strengths of a party veteran who spearheaded some of the most radical reforms in the country.

Moreover although Gatt has already declared that he will not be contesting the next election, it was Gonzi himself who back in February announced that Gatt would be leading the party's war rooms in the next election.

Ironically the Gonzi-Busuttil tandem risks depriving the party of two of its most powerful weapons; the ministerial drive of some of the cabinet upstarts and Gatt's tried and tested organisational prowess. 

Still despite being humbled, Gatt has now expressed his willingness to work with Busuttil adding that the latter would make a "brilliant" deputy leader.

One lasting lesson the party could draw from the 2008 GonziPN experience is that choreographed survey driven chess moves may well bring temporary benefits but have damaging long term consequences.  To dispel the perception that his ascent to the second most powerful post in the party is not sheer choreography, Busuttil must prove that he is not just the PN's new poster boy but a politician who represents a particular set of values.

By insisting that he is a centrist able to hold the party's different wings together, Busuttil risks emulating Joseph Muscat's own brand of "I love you all" politics.  Ultimately Busuttil's depends on how successful he will be in eroding MuscatPL's lead.  The question is can the PN narrow the lead by focusing on policies or on faces?

The tandem against Joseph

Simon Busuttil's own leadership ambitions now hinge on his ability to lure back disgruntled Nationalist voters in his bid to narrow and possibly overturn Labour's lead.

Busuttil's best asset in this exercise is his power as a communicator, even if he needs a lot of catching up when it comes to policy details on vital issues like energy policies. 

In this he would by relying on the cooperation of his rival Tonio Fenech who has emerged as the party's top gun when it comes to bursting Labour's policy bubbles.  

If Busuttil manages to steer his party to an improbable victory, he would automatically gain a pass to the succession. 

Even in the case of a narrow defeat, Busuttil could still boast of saving the party from a humiliating defeat and bank on recognition by party councillors for standing to be counted in the party's hour of need. But Busuttil would see his chances of becoming the PN's next leader dashed if the party is trounced by Labour. 

What is sure is that for Busuttil, the next general elections are a do or die affair and he would leave no stone unturned to save his party's fortunes.

One obstacle to Busuttil's ambitions could well be the leader which he is being expected to prop up. For while in 2008 it was the cabinet which had to be sidelined to allow Gonzi to save the day for his party, this time round Gonzi himself could be the albatross around Busuttil's neck. Moreover Gonzi cannot be sidelined.

It also remains to be seen whether Busuttil can exploit the gaping holes in Labour's platform, a task which has eluded Gonzi despite the latter's solid performance in his latest TV exchange with the Labour leader. 

It remains to be seen whether Busuttil will take the role of a prop to Gonzi or assume the role of a future Prime Minister who will be calling the shots after the next election. 

This ambiguity could be a double-edged sword for the PN. For while the tandem offers hope to voters yearning for change it could also undermine Gonzi's authority as leader.

What is sure is that Busuttil's election has given a new significance to the PN's deputy leadership spot, which was lacking during both Tonio Borg's tenure under Gonzi and Gonzi's own under the shadow of the patriarch Eddie Fenech Adami. For while many considered Gonzi as Fenech Adami's anointed one, Fenech Adami remained the unquestioned leader right up to the very end of his tenure.

Busuttil's election also serves to expose the weakness of Labour's leadership trinity, which the party has tried to sideline since 2008 when delegates elected Anglu Farrugia as deputy leader for parliamentary affairs and Toni Abela as deputy leader for party affairs.

One advantage for the PN is the weakness of the PL's front bench, which remains unsavoury to a segment of voters who trust Muscat but are not convinced by his deputy leaders, particularly Anglu Farrugia and many prospective cabinet members.  

Toni Abela, who carries less baggage than Farrugia, could be a safer bet for Labour in any debate between deputy leaders; but Abela's more authentic socialism could contrast with the business friendly image Muscat is trying to project.

Ultimately Labour strategists might well opt to continue projecting the party as Muscat's presidential movement in the hope of gaining a safe majority to avoid the same fate as GonziPn.

What is sure is that although Labour's policy platform remains vague, the party seems less inclined to the gaffes like the repeater class, which provided the PN with ammunition before 2008.  This means that Busuttil's task will be far harder than that of Gonzi in 2008 for the sheer reason that Muscat is a harder nut to crack than Sant.