Did you watch Anglu… or Franco?

The Christmas truce and the electoral time-table have gained a new significance after Anglu Farrugia's miserable performance in last Saturday's Xarabank debate.

There seems to be a clear logic in the timing of major political events so close to the Christmas break. The fall of the government on 10 December, after Franco Debono voted against the budget, made a Christmas truce agreed by both parties imperative. But that does not mean that people stop talking about politics in their social engagements in the coming days. Neither does the truce stop political comments on social network sites like Facebook.

Ironically Labour has played its part in ensuring that the debate between deputy leaders would be the most talked event at dinner tables during the Christmas festivities.

In fact last Friday's prank which saw the Labour party sending Franco Debono instead of its deputy leader to the Xarbank debate only served to increase interest in the debate held the following day, making it even more of a topic for popular conversation.

While Labour's prank did expose the continued relevance of Franco Debono and caught the national broadcaster and the WE production company wrong-footed, after Saturday it was Anglu Farrugia who took the centre stage.

Ironically this strategy has been partly foiled by another appearance by Franco Debono on Monday evening which saw the maverick MP giving both his best and his worst in a highly confrontational interview by Norman Vella which only served to catapult Debono back to national prominence thus giving people something else to talk about on the dinner tables apart from Anglu Farrugia.

It also stands as a reminder that the shabbier the media treatment accorded to Debono, the more prominent he becomes, even if most of his popularity is now limited to the Labour leaning segment of the electorate. For the association between the rebel Nationalist and Labour has been strengthened by the presence of PL communication mastermind Kurt Farrugia in the WE studios during last Friday's Xarabank showdown.

Yet the shabby treatment accorded to the MP on national TV also offends the sensitivities of middle of the road voters who are turned off by both Debono's grotesque antics and the blatant bias in the way interviews like that of last Monday are conducted.

Yet while Debono remains as relevant as ever either as folk hero for most Labourites or as a bizarre figure for most Nationalists, Farrugia's performance on Saturday (which strategically had a repeat on Monday night) was exactly what the PN has been yearning for.

It is unclear whether this was deliberate strategy, a stroke of luck or a mix of both, PN strategists must have realised that it was vital for their party's electoral fortuned to rekindle enthusiasm among its supporters before Christmas.

This is because the Christmas break offers a unique chance for people to socialise with colleagues, relatives and friends during staff parties, family dinners and parties. On the eve of an election it is highly probable that politics will feature in conversation around the dinner table or in between a round of drinks.

The debate between a savvy Simon Busuttil and an inept Anglu Farrugia right on the eve of the official Christmas truce ensures that this will be one of the main topics of political conversation. It is also highly probable that Christmas parties and dinners will see undecided voters interacting with those who have already decided for which party to vote for.

Busuttil's victory in last Saturday's debate ensures that PN voters will be more upbeat than they have been for the past four years, when their party was constantly facing internal dissent.

The dynamics of socialisation, which sees people from the same class background bonding together, could help the process of re-entrenchment on the Nationalist side. One major disadvantage the PN had before last weekend was the perception that the election was foreseen conclusion, with surveys showing Labour holding on to an insurmountable lead.

This served to demoralise PN supporters who were more likely to remain quiet while listening to criticism of the government. The dominant perception was not just that the PN was the underdog but that it was an underdog with no chance to win.

Surveys held after the budget and before Labour's prank on Friday and Saturday's debate did show the gap narrowing down from 12 to eight percentage points but not enough to dispel the notion that a Labour victory is inevitable.

But Anglu Farrugia's poor performance on Saturday coupled with Busuttil's ability in conveying the right sound bites, has rekindled a sense of enthusiasm among PN voters, which would seep in the festive atmosphere. Coupled to this is the government strong-arm tactics with regards to two judges, one accused of misconduct and the other of bribery.

What has changed is that PN supporters are now thinking that although their party starts as the underdog the party now has a fighting chance. 

In itself this could be simply a perception which is not yet rooted in reality. So far the debate might have been more effective in rekindling hope among Nationalist voters than in convincing those who have crossed sides to return back to the fold. What could be vital in the next days for the PN are the dynamics of socialisation, as people informally meet and discuss politics. In such circumstances peer pressure could come in to play in recomposing the traditional Nationalist leaning hegemonic block.

What was striking is that recent events have exposed the first cracks in the PL's previously faultless strategy. For at the end of the day nobody could understand why the party refused to participate on the same programme on Friday only to participate a day later.

Surprisingly even Labour's choice of Christmas truce billboards; a Santa Claus standing in the same mocking pose as Gonzi in the party's previous Brazil billboard, contrasts with the more dignified PN billboard showing a traditional crib.

Yet this re-entrenchment of tribal identity would not be enough for the PN to close the gap as so far it is simply recovering the loyalty of those who in the end of the day would have still voted for the PN.

What really counts in the end of the day is the impact of last weekend's events on new voters, which the PN needs to counterbalance the swing from its own ranks to Labour.

By going on record that he had voted for divorce and disagreed with the PM's voting against the result in parliament, Busuttil may well have scored points among disillusioned young voters. The social networks will also ensure that young voters will be given a taste of the debate even if they did not watch the whole thing on TV.

Still while ensuring that its supporters will be celebrating Christmas with a sense of renewed optimism, this sentiment may well prove to be ephemeral as Labour manages to get its act in order after the proper campaign starts.

As long as Labour manages to retain those past Nationalist voters now saying that they intend voting Labour while attracting a significant portion of new voters, its victory remains highly probable.

But the fact that the PN is now being perceived as having a fighting chance shows that Gonzi's political chess moves over the past month, which culminated in the election of Simon Busuttil as party deputy leader, are paying off even if he still has to contend with the unpredictability of Franco Debono.