[ANALYSIS] The battle for the PN’s disgruntled vote

A battle is on for that part of the Nationalist vote which still shuns party leader Adrian Delia and craves for a different Opposition.
The latest MaltaToday Survey shows that 22% of PN voters in 2017 are today undecided, double the amount of PL voters in the same position. A further 13% of PN voters would not vote, compared to 9% of PL voters.

A lazy analysis would suggest that most of these voters belong to the so-called ‘Daphne crowd’ – the followers of a constellation of groups advocating for ‘rule of law’ who consider Delia as Joseph Muscat’s “useful idiot”.

Yet a deeper analysis suggests that this category includes a wide cross-section of voters, including moderates, who though deeply concerned by rule of law issues, do not identify with Caruana Galizia’s divisive legacy. The group probably contains floating voters and even former Labour and Alternattiva Demokratika voters who voted PN in 2017 simply because they were shocked by Panamagate.

It may also include PN voters who were disoriented by the conclusions of the Egrant inquiry and who may even be warming up to Labour.

This group of voters is now being presented with three electoral options, namely voting for the Partit Demokratiku, voting for independent candidate Arnold Cassola and voting for the David Casa and Roberta Metsola tandem.

Darlings from ‘that’ PN faction: from right, David Casa and Roberta Metsola; left, Francis Zammit Dimech

The Metsola-Casa tandem

Blogger Manuel Delia recently published a letter by a reader inviting the entire constellation of activist groups and the Caruana Galizia family to vote for David Casa and Roberta Metsola. The latter warned that “nothing could please Labour more [than] the behaviour of the Daphne-loyal supporters who are planning to either abstain or vote for independent candidates”.

Some of those replying to Delia’s guest post noted that they may well achieve the same result by giving their first preference to the PD or Cassola and then proceed to vote for Casa and Metsola.

Although the PD is also fielding local candidates, contrary to AD, it has been more focused on MEP elections

The Forza Nazzjonali legacy

While the Partit Demokratiku has historically identified itself with the Forza Nazzjonali legacy which is reminiscent of the anti-corruption campaign led by Simon Busuttil, the party has so far failed to leave a mark on the polls.

The party’s two male candidates come across as stuffy, traditional politicians, have not become household names, and remain eclipsed by the party’s two MPs, Godfrey Farrugia – as of yesterday an MEP candidate – and his partner Marlene, even if the latter has become less visible. The only candidate to stand out is Swedish-born candidate Cami Appelgren whose clean-ups and fresh approach to politics may attract a younger constituency.

Cassola’s fourth attempt

The PD’s failure to leave a mark may have left some space for Arnold Cassola, who after disowning the Greens on what looked like a puerile disagreement on the disposition of young candidate Mina Tolu to discuss the abortion issue, has embarked on a strategy reminiscent of his 2004 near-miss, that of projecting himself as a reference point for pale blue voters.

The strategy was reinforced by the backing of four prominent figures, three of which clearly strike a chord with a category of disgruntled Nationalist voters, namely former European human rights court judge Giovanni Bonello – who after being chosen by Labour to lead the commission for justice reform, became a vocal critic of Muscat’s government after Panamagate; psychologist Maryanne Lauri, a former member of the PN’s ethics committee and a billboard endorser of the Forza Nazzjonali in 2017; and artist Debbie Caruana Dingli, who had addressed a vigil for Caruana Galizia where she spoke about a painting commemorating the slain journalist.

It is the endorsement by Maltese literary giant Oliver Friggieri, who enjoys respect across the political spectrum, which may help Cassola widen his appeal beyond the restricted constituency of PN-leaning voters.

Although Cassola has, so far, not left a mark on the polls, his experience as a seasoned campaigner with the gift of the gab cannot be underestimated. Yet circumstances are entirely different than in 2004 where Cassola’s pitch for the pale blue voter may well have been the prelude to the historic shift of thousands of PN voters to Labour in 2013.

Nor can one exclude that a small number of ex-PN voters frustrated by the party’s failures under both Busuttil and Delia, would shift directly to Labour, which has become so similar to the PN they knew in its more glorious years. This may well be a third, more contained but possibly more lethal exodus from the PN.

Also competing for the pale blue vote are PN candidates like Peter Agius, Roselyn Borg Knight and former AD politician Michael Briguglio, who are trying to carve their own niche in a crowded field, basing their appeal on their own personal history or professional experience, in a bid to stand above the deep division between the Delia and anti-Delia camp.

While the Greens may not be taking any short-cuts in scrambling for voters whose support is at best temporary, they may well be investing in a future where green issues and land use issues are becoming more pressing

No short-cuts for the Greens

Thinking long term, the Greens have refrained from joining the scramble for the PN vote, ditching their past strategy of serving as a parking space for disgruntled Nationalists and focusing on localised environmental and social issues in an attempt to carve a niche for left-oriented voters disillusioned by the Muscat government.

Carmel Cacopardo’s dual candidature in both MEP elections and local elections for the St Julian’s council suggests that the party is giving primary importance to local elections in these mid-term elections. In these elections the party is fielding nine local council candidates, that include a mixture of young professionals and activists, and party stalwarts.

Although the PD is also fielding local candidates, contrary to AD, it has been more focused on MEP elections. While the Greens may not be taking any short-cuts in scrambling for voters whose support is at best temporary, they may well be investing in a future where green issues and land use issues are becoming more pressing. It is here that a gap has been created on Labour’s left due to Muscat’s shift to pro-business policies, which have had a drastic impact on residents living in construction sites.

This may be the space to watch in the next decade.

Although the prospect of success in MEP elections looks dim for the greens, the party’s performance in local election may be indicative of whether the Greens can live on to fight for another day.