German election: Last wake-up call or poisoned chalice?

The parliamentary arithmetic in Germany leaves no choice: It’s either a grand coalition between the two traditional centrist and pro-European parties – CDU/CSU and the SPD – or a right-wing coalition between the CDU and the far right AfD.

Friedrich Merz, the leader of the CDU, has firmly excluded the latter coalition option. This suggests that despite flirting with the AfD during the election by passing a symbolic migration plan in parliament with their support, Merz still believes he has more in common with the SPD.

After being bombastically congratulated by Trump, Merz reacted by vowing for European independence from the US, just one day before the so-called leader of the free world chilled the international community by voting against a UN resolution condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The greatest fault lines between the CDU and the AfD lie in their attitudes towards the new order unleashed by Trump and Putin. While a Germany led by the AfD would align itself with the emerging league of autocracies, the CDU, like other democratic parties, is rooted in European democracy.

The AfD questions Germany’s place in Europe and the western alliance, now shaken by Trump’s coming onto the scene.

Back to the grand coalition

But can Merz really reach common ground with the SPD? Germany already had a stable grand coalition between 2013 and 2021. However, that coalition was led by Angela Merkel, a politician whose strength was consensus-building and whose demeanor even attracted center-left voters. Unlike ‘Mutti’ Merkel, Merz is hawkish and panders to the right. Now, he must govern with the center-left from a position of strength, as his party is nearly twice as large as the SPD.

‘Mutti’s’ inheritance

Weighing on the government’s future are two aspects of Merkel’s legacy: Her decision to allow nearly 1 million Syrian refugees fleeing a terrible civil war in 2015 and her continued reliance on Russian gas. In practical terms, the Syrian gamble paid off; 226,600 Syrians are currently employed and play a crucial role in the healthcare sector, where they provide urgently needed services. Many of them have been able to enter the nursing profession thanks to specialised training programmes.

Despite these realities, the sudden influx, coupled with inflation and economic decline after the pandemic and the Russian invasion, has created a hostile climate toward migrants. During the campaign, Merz promised that “all illegal immigrants” should be turned back at the border, including people seeking protection from war or political persecution. He also stated he was ready to issue a “de facto ban” on entry for all those without valid entry documents.

The only significant difference with the AfD on this aspect is that the latter even hints at repatriating legal refugees deemed to be unassimilable.

Under Alice Weidel, Alternative for Germany, or AfD, has doubled its support in just four years to 20.8%

The SPD’s poisoned chalice

Despite the haphazard reintroduction of border controls under Scholz, diluting asylum rights by turning away people who may be eligible for protection is a sticking point for the SPD. While some leaders may be amenable to compromise, fearing further losses in the industrial heartlands, the party risks further losses to Die Linke if it goes this way.

Die Linke not only fended off a challenge from a former leader Sarah Wagenknecht who set up her own left-wing anti-migrant party, but it also managed to retain its stronghold in the east while winning over young progressive voters in major urban centers, mostly at the cost of the SPD and the Greens. In fact, in what could be a taste of things to come among 18- to 24-year-olds, Die Linke has emerged as the largest party at 24%, closely followed by the right-wing AfD at 21%.  The key to this success was a coupling of progressive causes with a commitment for the welfare state.

In this sense, governing with the CDU from a position of weakness could be a poisoned chalice for the SPD, especially if increased military spending is needed to counter the threat posed by Putin. That is why the SPD is keen on abrogating the debt brake – the constitutional rule that restricts annual structural deficits to 0.35% of GDP. The CDU does not exclude this but is less enthusiastic. The latter has also promised tax cuts and public expenditure cuts aimed at increasing growth and possibly tax revenues. The risk is that austerity could further contribute to the growth of the far right.

The imperative to succeed

Despite these differences, the arithmetic confines both parties in a marriage dictated by the imperative of keeping Germany in Europe and preventing a far-right party from gaining power. But what happens next?

The CDU has failed in its post-war mission of ensuring that no party thrives on its right. With the liberal FDP excluded from parliament, the CDU faces an absence of coalition partners. While Merkel once toyed with the idea of a Jamaica coalition with the Greens, Merz is unlikely to contemplate such an option. This is bound to increase the temptation among the party’s right wing to team up with the far right.

On the other hand, it will be hard for the SPD to govern with the CDU while paving the way for an alternative coalition that probably will have to include both the Greens and Die Linke. Ultimately, it all boils down to how consensual and decisive Merz will be in government to bring Germany back to the forefront of Europe, inheriting Merkel’s unofficial role as leader of the free world. For he is right on one thing: “It is now five minutes to midnight for Europe.”