Major parties in European Parliament in dead heat

How will the European Parliament look after the European elections on 22-25 May? No one has the answer, but the question is on everyone’s mind. Based on the current state of play of public opinion in the EU member states, the European Parliament and its contractor TNS Opinion propose a weekly projection of seats in the Parliament’s hemicycle.

This not a poll on voting intentions, but a snapshot of the current state of play of the public opinion in EU member states on the 2014 European elections.

The final and official composition of the new European Parliament will only be known by its constitutive session on 1-3 July 2014.

Methodology
This projection of seats in the European Parliament is based on a non exhaustive collection of weekly European and national polls carried out in the 28 EU member states. The seats for each party in each member state are calculated by taking into account national electoral laws, electoral formulas, voting system and national electoral thresholds where applicable.

The projection is based on the averages of the latest two or three polls available in each member state, when they are no more than 14 days apart, and only when the dates of fieldwork are available. When the calculation of the average is not possible, only the last European or national available poll is taken into account.

The projection was published on Thursday, based on a list of polls that is completed the Thursday of the precedent week.

Seats allocation

Parties that belong to an EP political group or are members of the corresponding European political party are automatically included in the outgoing political group.

Parties currently represented among the non-attached members are automatically included in the non-attached category.

Parties whose affiliation has yet to be determined are automatically included in the “others” category. This “others” category is split equally between the right and the left of the hemicycle in order not to prejudge its political orientations.

Source: European Parliament/TNS Opinion