Third time lucky? | Arnold Cassola

In many respects, the 2014 European elections represent a potential milestone for Malta’s Green Party. Traditionally, Alternattiva Demokratika has always fared better at European (and local council) level than in national elections, even though its chairman Arnold Cassola never quite recaptured his historic success of 2004, when he rocked the establishment by unexpectedly garnering 23,000 first-count votes.

All the same, there seems to be a lot going for the greens right now, at least on paper. With the joint controversies of spring hunting and the Marsaxlokk LNG tanker suddenly reaching fever pitch, there is no shortage of environmental causes to latch onto. Perhaps even more significant is the recent boom in construction and development as a result of a relaxation of MEPA regulations.

These were after all precisely the sort of issues that led to mass protests against the rationalisation schemes in 2005, only coming from a different administration, which lends considerable weight to AD’s consistent claim that the two parties are in fact just mirror images of one another (a view often summed up in just four letters: ‘PLPN’).

All things told, then, it would seem the environment is very firmly back on the agenda. This is surely good news for a party that has always taken clear positions on all these issues, as opposed to the PN and PL, neither of which can realistically pose as environmental champions.

So when I meet Arnold Cassola I find him brimming with cautious confidence, even though his demeanour also suggests a vague unease. After 25 years of activity in the political scene, he is well aware that observers consider this a ‘do-or-die’ election for AD, and perhaps even for Cassola himself. So what is the atmosphere among the Green Party at the moment? And how does Cassola rate his own chances of election?

“We have to keep our feet on the ground. I won’t deny that it’s tough, but it is certainly not impossible.”

Cassola adds that the people he meets from various backgrounds nearly all tell him the same thing: how tired they are of the traditionally confrontational style of politics that seems to have grown worse, not better, in recent years and months. “I get the impression that there is a genuine hunger for a more serious, even a more European approach to politics. And people are not getting that from the main two parties.”

At the risk of pooping on AD’s parade, its very success in 2004 may also return to haunt it. On that occasion, Cassola failed to get elected despite an impressive tally of votes. And the prevailing arguments of disillusionment with the larger parties were roughly the same. How, then, can he be confident of election this time round, when polls indicate a far more modest result for the Greens?

Cassola is quick to point out a significant difference between this and previous elections. The addition of a seat to Malta’s representation in Brussels and Strasbourg has reduced the national quota by a full 7,000 votes: making the target considerably more attainable now than in ’04.

Besides, the complexities of Malta’s byzantine electoral system may also work to AD’s benefit. The past two EP elections have illustrated just how important the co-called ‘inheritance’ system is in getting elected. Cassola reminds me how the last two or three seats to be filled always rely heavily on second, third, fourth and even higher count votes. “Having a large number of number ones is naturally important, but the way the system works – even if the other parties often try to camouflage this fact – you can get elected even with a healthy amount of inherited votes.”

Read the full interview in MaltaToday