Will the PN elect a third seat?

The Nationalist Party has made winning a historic third seat in the European Parliament elections a matter of ‘do or die’.

For the past few weeks, PN leader Simon Busuttil and the rest of the party have downplayed their chances of electing a third seat for the first time ever, repeatedly insisting that they would not take anything for granted and that “there are no guarantees on electing a third MEP”.

Although past elections indicate that this appears to be a Herculean task, figures show that the PN stands a very good chance of securing a third seat.

In the two previous elections, Labour emerged victorious, earning three out of the five seats available. In the last round, Labour elected a sixth MEP after the Lisbon Treaty increased Malta’s allocation of seats and Joseph Cuschieri, who came closest to getting elected after the five seats were allocated, took the last seat in 2011.

The PN’s decision to raise the stakes and place so much importance on electing a third MEP might look risky and could possibly come back to haunt Busuttil, however numbers show that the likelihood of winning a third seat is actually not all that remote.

Based on the 2009 European Parliament election results, the PN has as good a chance of winning three seats as Labour has of retaining four seats. In the last round, the election result was worked out on five seats, while this year’s election will be worked out on six.

The election quota is reached by dividing the number of valid votes by the number of seats, plus one. Therefore, in 2009, the quota was set by dividing the total of valid votes (248,169) by the number of vacant seats, plus one (five seats plus one), resulting in a 41,362 quota.

The difference between the two parties stood at 35,431, almost identical to the majority Labour had in last year’s general election.

Subsequently, Labour elected three candidates to the PN’s two, after Labour earned 54.77% of the vote and the PN could only muster 40.49%.

Labour obtained 135,917 votes, or 3.2 quotas, while the PN’s 100,486 votes translated into 2.4 quotas (the two parties’ respective tallies being divided by the quota).

Applying a quota based on six seats rather than five to the 2009 result, Labour would obtain 3.83 quotas, while the PN would have 2.83 – meaning that both parties would have an identical chance of either winning four and two seats, or equally dividing the six vacant seats.

This would lead to a repetition of the 13th-district result in the last general election: only 213 votes divided the two parties, and although the PN obtained 2.99 quotas to Labour’s 2.95, the fifth seat went to Labour after the distribution of votes. An alleged error by the Electoral Commission also swayed the result Labour’s way.

Applying a six-seat quota to the 2004 result, when Labour had a 21,000-vote advantage on the PN, would clearly result in a third seat for the PN.

The quota applied in 2004 stood at 40,954; however, if the same total of valid votes is divided by six seats plus one, the quota falls to 35,103.

Applying the six-seat quota to Labour’s 118,722 votes equates to 3.39 quotas, while the PN’s 97,688 votes would result in 2.78 quotas, making it nigh to impossible for Labour to win a fourth seat.

One different variable in the 2004 election was the staggering 22,936 votes obtained by Alternattiva Demokratika, which had come very close to electing Arnold Cassola in the first European elections held in Malta.

What could happen in 2014?

If this year’s election result is identical to the last round, the allocation of the six seats will go to the wire, with Labour’s chances of retaining a fourth seat being statistically identical to the PN’s chances of winning a third seat.

In the remote eventuality of an identical result, the PN’s chances of winning a historic third seat would depend on the distribution of votes of its elected and eliminated candidates, although in 2009, Labour’s last standing candidate, Joseph Cuschieri, enjoyed a 6,000-vote advantage over his closest rival from the PN’s ranks, Roberta Metsola.

However, the 2014 election will be a completely different ballgame to 2009, and a number of factors could sway the result one way or the other.

Firstly, MaltaToday’s surveys over the past few weeks have consistently shown that Labour is likely to suffer a dip while the PN has consolidated its vote.

If the same number of votes are cast and Labour reduces its tally by 10,000 and the PN maintains the votes it garnered in 2009, Labour would get 3.57 quotas to the PN’s 2.85.

This would make it more probable for the opposition to elect a third seat, than Labour electing a fourth. Moreover, the last seat will probably be elected without reaching the quota, as happened with two Labour candidates in 2009.

For the first time ever, Labour goes into the European election as the party in power; and if the dreaded mid-term effect comes into play, then the PN seems to be perfectly positioned to reduce the gap to such an extent that winning a third seat would be a formality.

Secondly, the absence of Simon Busuttil from the PN’s ticket could also aid the party in electing the elusive third seat.

Busuttil holds the record for the highest number of votes ever obtained by any candidate in Malta in one election, having garnered 58,889 votes in 2004 and 68,782 votes five years later.

His absence will invariably result in a more evenly balanced distribution of PN votes, especially since the PN did not field a heavyweight in Busuttil’s mould.

This could lead to a bigger number of PN candidates surviving the interminable vote-counting process and holding a better chance of taking over a Labour candidate in the race for the sixth seat.

Moreover, Labour’s Alfred Sant could have a similar effect on Labour’s candidates, increasing the number of non-transferable votes and reduce the first count vote tallies of Labour’s remaining 10 candidates.

If all these factors come into play, Busuttil’s gamble will pay off. However, if the PN equals the 2004 European election result or at least reduces the gap, electing a third seat will turn out to be little more than a mere formality.