Mediterranean security on Muscat’s agenda for Merkel meeting

Angela Merkel’s last bilateral meeting with a Maltese prime minister was in the run-up to the 2013 elections, when she offered Lawrence Gonzi a valedictory on his economic stewardship.

Today she meets Joseph Muscat, a member of Europe’s socialist prime ministers, to discuss among other things, the eurozone. Muscat is one of the EU leaders who supports growth-centred policies, but it is unlikely that in the brooding climate of Greece’s repudiation of the “Troika” – the EC-ECB-IMF monitors of the Greek bailout and imposers of austerity – he will be one to uphold Alexis Tsipras’s brinkmanship.

Muscat, whose government supports fiscal probity, has already stated that Greece will have to repay its debt, which includes some €174 million Malta loaned it under both EFSF and bilateral loans.

That’s a drop in the ocean for Greece’s €315 billion bailout, but its new left-wing government is demanding that the debt be halved after it rose to 175% of its gross domestic product, despite massive spending cuts.

Like many other member states, no EU leader wants to have to explain to their voters why they are forgiving Greece’s debt after having bailed it out in the first place.

Concessions to Greece would also mean extending the same largesse to countries like Spain and Portugal, so Muscat has been cautious in supporting an extension of debt maturities and not debt relief.

With Alexis Tsipras yet to meet his counterparts inside the European Council, his colleagues will demand guarantees that he will not jettison important economic reforms under bailout conditions. But the Syriza leader has already promised he will re-engage 12,000 workers on the public sector bill and halt scheduled privatizations. The stage is set for a showdown with the leader that matters, German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Muscat might well be more interested in his own country’s security. He sounded the warning starkly enough with a ministerial statement he gave to the House of Representatives on Wednesday evening, after an attack on the Maltese-owned Corinthia hotel in Tripoli by Islamic State affiliates. The prospects of a failed state in Libya ruled by Islamic fundamentalists would mean instant immigration pressures and a threat to energy security.

The Libyan power vacuum has provided fertile ground for jihadists who are exploiting the fragile structures of both Al Thinni and Al Hassi authorities, while UN delegate Bernardino Leon attempts to broker an accord between the militias.

Muscat wants Merkel to support lobbying efforts for a UN peacekeeping force if Libya goes further downhill. Supporting Greece’s fantasy for instant debt relief will not be part of this plan.