Resurgent Labour Party ahead by 29,000 votes as turnout increases

VOTING INTENTIONS | PL enjoys 10-point lead, turnout increases

The Labour Party is solidly in pole position with a 10-point lead over the Nationalist Party in MaltaToday’s second survey on voting intentions for June’s MEP election. 

The gap translates into a 28,702-vote advantage on the back of a significantly higher turnout of 76.6%, up from 62.5% last month. 

The survey shows the PL polling at 52.8%, up from 47.9% in February, while the PN is currently polling at 42.6%, a marginal increase from 41% last month. Support for independents and other parties drops to 4.6% from 11.1%. 

In a clear indication that Labour has managed to mobilise its voters in the past weeks, the percentage of Labour voters in 2022 intent on not voting has dropped from a staggering 34.2% in February to just 14.4% now. 

This means the PL is now retaining 81.6% of its voters compared to just 58.1% last month. The increased turnout among Labour voters has pushed the party up by five clear points to clinch an absolute majority. 

This poll boost for the PL comes in the wake of official statistics showing lower inflation in February on the back of a slowdown in food inflation. This could be the result of the Stabbiltà scheme, which lowered the prices on 15 categories of basic foods. 

But the PL’s improved performance also comes in the midst of speculation on a return of former prime minister Joseph Muscat to active politics as an MEP candidate. In a speech, delivered at an event organised by MEP candidate Alex Agius Saliba, Muscat made a strong pitch towards disgruntled Labour voters telling them the “question is not whether Joseph is running or not but whether you will go out to vote”. 

The survey also shows the PN making smaller inroads among supporters who were intent on not voting, with the party now retaining 82.6% of its 2022 voters up from 70.9% last month. Both parties are now losing around 14% of their 2022 support base to abstention. 

The percentage of respondents, who expressed an intent on not voting has dropped by 14.1 points, to 23.4% from 37.5% last month. This is a clear indication of greater interest in next June’s election as the respective party campaigns are slowly taking off. 

Surprisingly, after a series of surveys pointing at record breaking abstention rates, the 76.6% turnout predicted in this survey is 6.6 points higher than the percentage of valid votes cast in the 2019 MEP election. 

The survey shows a very small swing of 2022 voters in favour of the PN. While the PN loses 1.4% of its voters to the PL, the PL is losing 2.3% of its voters to the PN. 

But this shift is partly offset by larger losses of the PN towards third parties.  While Labour now loses 1.8% of its voters to third parties, the PN is losing 2.5% of its 2022 support base to third parties.

Labour recovers support in south east 

A breakdown by region shows a considerable decline in non-voters in the South-eastern region which includes Marsaskala, Żejtun, Marsaxlokk and other Labour leaning localities. In this region, the percentage of non-voters has dropped by 17.1 points. The decline in non-voters, coupled by a three-point drop in support for third parties is reflected in a 21.6-point increase in support for Labour in this pivotal region. 

In the South Harbour region, which includes deep red Cottonera, the percentage of non-voters has also decreased by 15.5 points while support for the PL has increased by 8.8 points. 

The survey also confirms inroads by the Labour Party in the PN leaning Northern region, which includes Naxxar, Mellieha and St Paul’s Bay. 

In this region, the PL has increased its lead from 1.9 points last month to 5.6 points now. Increased support for Labour in this region also comes in the wake of a 10.9-point drop in non-voters. 

But the PN’s low score in this region could also reflect a relatively high abstention rate of 27.2%, which is the highest in the Maltese islands. 

Labour also registers major inroads in Gozo where the party now leads the PN by a staggering 23.8 points. Worryingly for the PN, the PL manages to clinch an absolute majority in Gozo (50.5%) even when non-voters are included in the score. 

The only region where the PN commands a substantial lead is the North Harbour district, the highly-urbanised belt that includes Sliema, St Julians, Msida, Qormi and Birkirkara. 

In this region, the PN is leading Labour by 8.8 points. The region also registers the highest level of support for third parties (5.7%). 

The PN also commands a wafer thin 0.7-point majority in the Western region, which includes Żebbuġ and Attard. This result reverses a small one-point lead for Labour in February.

PL strongest among those earning less than €2,000 

The Labour Party registers its best results among those earning less than €1,000 a month (46.9%) and among those earning between €1,001 and €2,000 (40.2%). 

In contrast, the PN registers its strongest support among those earning between €2,001 and €3,000, where it leads Labour by 7.8 points. Support for third parties is also highest in this category (11.9 points). 

But the PL also beats the PN by 5.3 points among those earning between €3,001 and €4,000. But this category also includes the highest percentage of non-voters (49.8%).

PN losing in all age groups 

The survey shows Labour commanding a substantial lead in all age brackets.  The PL’s lead ranges from 12.3 points among 36 to 50-year olds to 4.9 points among over 65 year olds. 

The survey shows a decline in the abstention rate in all age groups particularly among 16 to 35 year olds the percentage of non-voters dropped by 20.9 points from 54.5% to 33.6%. 

A breakdown by education shows the PL making major inroads among the post-secondary educated where the PN enjoyed a 2.3-point lead last month.  The PL now enjoys a 9.3-point lead in this cohort. Labour’s gains in this category correspond to a 12.8-point drop in the percentage of non-voters.    

But the PN has increased its lead among the tertiary educated. In this category, the PN now leads by 13.7 points, up from 5.7 points last month. This suggests that in this case a 16.3-point drop in non-voters has largely benefitted the PN. 

Third parties also score their best result in this category (8%).

TRUST BAROMETER | Abela leads Grech by 24 points

Robert Abela has clinched his highest trust rating since February 2023 with the March MaltaToday survey recording a score of 45.9%, up 4.8 points from last month. 

But at 24.2 points the gap between the leaders has remained the same as last month because Bernard Grech has also seen his trust rating increase by five points. 

The higher trust scores for both leaders come in the wake of a 9.8-point drop in the percentage of respondents who trust neither leader. 

The trust boost for both leaders coincides with increased political mobilisation as the June election deadline approaches.  

The gap between the two leaders had already increased from 14.4 points in November to 16.4 points in December and to 24 points in January. 

But despite the boost over last month’s poor rating of 16.7%, Grech still lags behind and has simply reverted back to the same trust rating he registered back in December. 

Moreover, Abela is now back to the trust levels he enjoyed before March 2023 when his score dropped to a record low of 34.2% following a damning court judgment that annulled the Steward hospitals contract. 

The percentage of respondents who trust neither leader currently stands at 32.4%.

Grech faces trust issues with PN voters  

The survey shows that the percentage of PN voters in 2022 who distrust Grech has dropped from 51% last month to 44.6%. Grech is now trusted by 55.4% of PN voters. 

But Grech’s popularity among his voters pales in comparison with Abela who commands the trust of 87% of PL voters in 2022, up from 74.6% last month. 

Considering that 82% of PL voters in 2022 will vote again for the PL next June, this means that Abela is five points more popular than his party in this cohort. In contrast Grech is 27.6 points less popular than his party among the cohort of 2022 PN voters. 

Moreover, Grech still makes very few inroads among PL voters. Only 1.9% of PL voters in 2022 trust Grech more than Abela while 2.7% of PN voters in 2022 trust Abela more than Grech. 

And crucially Abela is more trusted by non-voters than Grech. While only 4.7% of current non-voters trust Grech, 22.6% trust Abela. This means that as things stand now Labour has better prospects of recovering support in this strategic category than the PN whose leader remains very unpopular among non-voters.  

Moreover, in a clear indication that Abela is already recovering lost ground among disgruntled Labourites, the percentage of Labour voters in 2022 who trust neither leader has dropped from 23.1% last month to just 11.1% now.

Distrust of leaders highest among middle income earners  

As was the case last month the highest percentage of respondents who trust neither of the two leaders is found among those earning between €2,000 and €3,000 a month. In this category, a remarkable 57% trust neither of the two leaders.      

Grech who is trusted by just 14% in this cohort is clearly failing to make inroads among this disgruntled category in which Abela still leads by 15 points. Moreover, in another sign of Grech’s unpopularity in the upper middle class, only 7.6% of those earning between €3,000 and €4,000 a month trust him. 

Grech only manages to beat Abela among those earning more than €4,000 where he is trusted by 48.9%. 

In an indication of Labour’s appeal among both low income earners and more affluent categories Abela scores his highest scores among those earning between €3,000 and  €4,000 a month  (61.2%) and among those earning less than €1,000 (52.2%).   

Abela also leads Grech in all educational cohorts, including the post-secondary educated where Abela now leads Grech by 24.2 points. 

The highest percentage of people who distrust both leaders is found among the tertiary educated (48.2%). In this category Abela leads Grech by 7.6 points even if as a party the PN leads the PL by 13.7 points in this category. This is an indication that a substantial number of tertiary voters who distrust both leaders are still likely to vote PN.

Abela leads Grech by 30 points among 36- to 50-year-olds   

The gap between Abela and Grech is widest among those aged between 36 and 50, which is also the cohort that includes the highest percentage of respondents who trust neither leader. 

This suggests that disgruntlement among a category which includes people at the peak of their career and people who are more likely to have dependent children, is not resulting in any gains for the Opposition or its leader. 

In fact, in this cohort Abela leads Grech by a staggering 31.5 points. Abela also leads Grech by 27.5 points among those aged between 51 and 65 and by 25.9 points among those aged between 16 and 35.  However, Abela’s lead drops to 15.6 points among those aged over 65 years of age.

Abela leading in all Maltese regions  

The survey also shows Abela leading Grech in all six regions. 

In a clear indication that Abela’s strategy of pandering to the party’s grass roots has partly paid off, his trust rating in the South Harbour region, which includes Labour’s Cottonera strongholds, has increased from 48% in December to 54% in February and to 55% now. 

Abela is also making substantial inroads in the Labour leaning South Eastern region which includes localities like Marsaskala, Żurrieq and Birżebbuġa. In this region where the percentage who trust neither leader has dropped from 44% last month to 29% now, Abela is now trusted by 51.2%, up from 39%.   

But the Prime Minister also makes inroads in the traditionally PN leaning Northern region where he leads Grech by a staggering 32.7 points. 

Significantly Abela gets his best trust rating in Gozo where he scores 55.7%, up from 43.2% last month. Grech gets his best result in the North Harbour region where he is trusted by 28% of respondents. Nonetheless, even here Abela still leads Grech by 5.5 points.  

GOVERNMENT PERFORMANCE BAROMETER | 2.9 marks out of 5

MaltaToday’s Government Performance Barometer progressively shows the government improving its rating from 2.6 in December to 2.8 in February to 2.9 marks now.  

The latest score represents the highest rating for the government since MaltaToday introduced this gauge in May 2023. 

Respondents are asked to give the administration a mark between 0 (very bad) and 5 (very good). The government is given a pass in all demographic groups except current PN voters (1.9), PN voters in the 2022 election (1.9), and those earning more than €4,000 a month (1.7). 

But significantly the government gets a positive rating among non-voters which give it a rating of 2.6 as was the case last month. 

This suggests that the government’s focus on inflation through an agreement with supermarkets and importers aimed at price stability, coupled with budgetary measures aimed at low income earners have partly paid off in restoring the feel-good factor. 

A breakdown by income shows the government getting its best scores among low income earners who are more likely to benefit from these measures. But the government is also highly rated among more affluent categories. 

The government is given the highest score (3) among those earning less than €1,000 a month, followed by those earning between €1,001 and €2,000 a month (2.9) and those earning between €3,001 and €4,000 (2.9). 

But once again the government gets its lowest rating among those earning between €2,001 and €3,000 (2.6) and among those earning over €4,000 (1.7). 

The government also gets a positive rating in all regions ranging between 2.6 in the North Harbour to 3.2 in Gozo. 

Moreover, the government has also improved its rating in the South-Eastern region and the Northern region from 2.7 to 2.9.

Country direction 

The survey also confirms a growing sense of optimism on the direction of the country. Although 59% still think that the country is going in the wrong direction, this represents a 1.5-point decrease over the past month. 

Moreover, the percentage of respondents who think the country is going in the right direction has increased from 31% in October to 35% in November to 39.5% in February and 41% now.

METHODOLOGY:

The survey was carried out was carried between 7 March 2024 and 21 March 2024 for which 657 people opted to complete the survey. Stratified random sampling based on region, gender and age was used. A fraction of those who opted to complete the survey chose not to answer a few of the questions for which they are treated as missing values.  Missing values analysis was then carried to determine the type of technique to replace the missing values. 

The margin of error for this result is 3.82% for a confidence interval of 95%.